Sunday, 13/09/2026 at 17:00
Full timeKFUM Oslo 2:1 Aalesunds FK
KFUM Oslo were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 37%. They won 2–1. Both teams produced xG close to their pre-match projections.
Goals
- 10' Bilal Njie KFUM Oslo · 0.16 xG chance 1–0
- 39' Marcus Haagensen Reed Aalesunds FK · 0.07 xG chance 1–1
- 45' Hakon Helland Hoseth KFUM Oslo · 0.12 xG chance 2–1
The model against the result
- KFUM Oslo
- 37% What happened
- Draw
- 29%
- Aalesunds FK
- 34%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 9
- 18
- On target
- 5
- 3
- Inside the box
- 7
- 10
- xG per shot
- 0.17
- 0.08
- Open play xG
- 0.60
- 1.12
- Set-piece xG
- 0.10
- 0.32
- Penalties
- 1
- 0
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.69 for KFUM Oslo and 1.43 for Aalesunds FK.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
27 shots · 2.96 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- KFUM Oslo
- Aalesunds FK
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.15 xG created 2.36 xGA
- L 0.69 created, 3.54 conceded against Molde FK
- W 1.23 created, 1.22 conceded against Kristiansund BK
- W 2.25 created, 1.33 conceded against Sandefjord Fotball
- D 0.92 created, 2.80 conceded against Lillestrøm SK
- L 1.65 created, 3.43 conceded against IK Start
- L 0.18 created, 1.81 conceded against Molde FK
1.78 xG created 2.06 xGA
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
5 opportunities flagged1 won4 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 3.70 | +9.0% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.40 | +6.2% | Lost |
| Aalesunds FK at most 1 goal | 1.80 | +4.9% | Won |
| KFUM Oslo at most 1 goal | 1.80 | +1.3% | Lost |
| Under 1.5 goals | 5.50 | +0.5% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KFUM Oslo | 36.6% | 39.5% | −3.0 pp | 2.73 |
| Draw | 29.5% | 25.1% | +4.4 pp | 3.39 |
| Aalesunds FK | 34.0% | 35.4% | −1.4 pp | 2.94 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KFUM Oslo to score | 79.1% | 79.2% | −0.1 pp | 1.26 |
| KFUM Oslo not to score | 20.9% | 20.8% | +0.1 pp | 4.79 |
| Aalesunds FK to score | 78.0% | 79.2% | −1.2 pp | 1.28 |
| Aalesunds FK not to score | 22.0% | 20.8% | +1.2 pp | 4.55 |
| Both teams to score | 63.4% | 62.5% | +0.9 pp | 1.58 |
| Both teams not to score | 36.6% | 37.5% | −0.9 pp | 2.73 |
| KFUM Oslo 2+ goals | 43.7% | 48.5% | −4.8 pp | 2.29 |
| KFUM Oslo at most 1 goal | 56.3% | 51.5% | +4.8 pp | 1.78 |
| Aalesunds FK 2+ goals | 41.7% | 48.5% | −6.8 pp | 2.40 |
| Aalesunds FK at most 1 goal | 58.3% | 51.5% | +6.8 pp | 1.72 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.7% | 82.8% | −1.1 pp | 1.22 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 18.3% | 17.2% | +1.1 pp | 5.47 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.7% | 61.0% | −5.3 pp | 1.79 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.3% | 39.0% | +5.3 pp | 2.26 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- KFUM Oslo sample
- 20 matches
- Aalesunds FK sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 7 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 7 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.