Molde FK 2:0 KFUM Oslo: xG & match report · Eliteserien

Sunday, 06/09/2026 at 17:00

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Match report · Eliteserien

Molde FK Home 1.81 xG · 24 shots

KFUM Oslo Away 0.18 xG · 5 shots

20 The scoreline reflected the chances

Molde FK were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 60%. They won 2–0. The biggest difference was KFUM Oslo's attack: 0.18 xG against 0.84 projected (−0.66).

Goals

37' Oskar Spiten-Nysæter Molde FK · 0.02 xG chance 1–0
73' Trent Kone Doherty Molde FK · 0.08 xG chance 2–0

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Molde FK: 60% What happened
Draw: 26%
KFUM Oslo: 14%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Molde FK 1.81 1.81 +0.00

KFUM Oslo 0.84 0.18 -0.66

KFUM Oslo produced 0.66 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Molde FK KFUM Oslo

Shots: 24; 5
On target: 6; 1
Inside the box: 13; 2
xG per shot: 0.08; 0.04
Open play xG: 0.98; 0.19
Set-piece xG: 0.84; 0.00
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.82 for Molde FK and 0.18 for KFUM Oslo.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

29 shots · 2.01 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Molde FK
KFUM Oslo
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Molde FK

2.33 xG created 0.94 xGA

L 1.36 created, 0.71 conceded against SK Brann
W 3.54 created, 0.69 conceded against KFUM Oslo
D 1.62 created, 1.09 conceded against Sarpsborg 08
L 3.21 created, 0.66 conceded against Kristiansund BK
W 2.50 created, 0.65 conceded against Tromsø IL
W 1.73 created, 1.82 conceded against Vålerenga IF

KFUM Oslo

1.20 xG created 2.26 xGA

L 0.46 created, 1.24 conceded against Lillestrøm SK
L 0.69 created, 3.54 conceded against Molde FK
W 1.23 created, 1.22 conceded against Kristiansund BK
W 2.25 created, 1.33 conceded against Sandefjord Fotball
D 0.92 created, 2.80 conceded against Lillestrøm SK
L 1.65 created, 3.43 conceded against IK Start

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Molde FK: 1 won · 1 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

5 opportunities flagged2 won3 lost

Won
Lost
Lost
Won
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Molde FK against KFUM Oslo before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Under 2.5 goals	3.20	+58.4%	Won
Under 1.5 goals	7.00	+53.7%	Lost
Draw	5.50	+42.8%	Lost
Both teams not to score	2.25	+6.8%	Won
KFUM Oslo to win	7.50	+5.1%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Molde FK	60.0%	71.7%	−11.7 pp	1.67
Draw	26.0%	16.3%	+9.7 pp	3.85
KFUM Oslo	14.0%	12.0%	+2.1 pp	7.14

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	52.5%	58.9%	−6.4 pp	1.90
Both teams not to score	47.5%	41.1%	+6.4 pp	2.11
Over 1.5 goals	78.0%	86.7%	−8.7 pp	1.28
Under 1.5 goals	22.0%	13.3%	+8.7 pp	4.55
Over 2.5 goals	50.5%	71.1%	−20.6 pp	1.98
Under 2.5 goals	49.5%	28.9%	+20.6 pp	2.02

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Molde FK sample: 20 matches
KFUM Oslo sample: 20 matches
Computed: 2 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 2 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.