Vålerenga IF 3:4 Molde FK: xG & match report · Eliteserien

Sunday, 30/08/2026 at 17:00

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Match report · Eliteserien

Vålerenga IF Home 1.82 xG · 20 shots

Molde FK Away 1.73 xG · 14 shots

34 The chances were evenly matched

Molde FK were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 42%. They won 4–3. The biggest difference was Vålerenga IF's attack: 1.82 xG against 1.25 projected (+0.57).

Goals

11' Eirik Hestad Molde FK · 0.04 xG chance 0–1
19' Lucas Haren Vålerenga IF · 0.32 xG chance 1–1
21' Mathias Grundetjern Vålerenga IF · 0.06 xG chance 2–1
30' Sondre Milian Granaas Molde FK · 0.07 xG chance 2–2
40' Jalal Abdullai Molde FK · 0.75 xG chance 2–3
45' Carl Lange Vålerenga IF · 0.08 xG chance – Scored in the same minute as another goal, so the score after it is not shown.
45' Caleb Zady Sery Molde FK · 0.16 xG chance – Scored in the same minute as another goal, so the score after it is not shown.

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Vålerenga IF: 28%
Draw: 29%
Molde FK: 42% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Vålerenga IF 1.25 1.82 +0.57

Molde FK 1.54 1.73 +0.19

Vålerenga IF produced 0.57 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Vålerenga IF Molde FK

Shots: 20; 14
On target: 5; 9
Inside the box: 13; 11
xG per shot: 0.09; 0.12
Open play xG: 1.37; 0.95
Set-piece xG: 0.34; 0.75
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.70 for Vålerenga IF and 1.73 for Molde FK.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

34 shots · 3.41 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Vålerenga IF
Molde FK
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Vålerenga IF

1.80 xG created 1.87 xGA

L 0.77 created, 1.95 conceded against Tromsø IL
W 2.58 created, 1.51 conceded against Aalesunds FK
W 2.34 created, 2.37 conceded against SK Brann
L 0.69 created, 1.40 conceded against HamKam
L 1.30 created, 1.89 conceded against Bodø/Glimt
D 3.13 created, 2.08 conceded against Aalesunds FK

Molde FK

2.36 xG created 0.74 xGA

D 1.91 created, 0.61 conceded against Aalesunds FK
L 1.36 created, 0.71 conceded against SK Brann
W 3.54 created, 0.69 conceded against KFUM Oslo
D 1.62 created, 1.09 conceded against Sarpsborg 08
L 3.21 created, 0.66 conceded against Kristiansund BK
W 2.50 created, 0.65 conceded against Tromsø IL

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Vålerenga IF: 0 won · 0 drawn · 3 lost

Pre-match model & market record

9 opportunities flagged1 won8 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Vålerenga IF against Molde FK before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Vålerenga IF not to score	5.50	+41.9%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	3.10	+41.5%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	7.00	+33.7%	Lost
Vålerenga IF at most 1 goal	2.00	+27.8%	Lost
Both teams not to score	3.25	+23.5%	Lost
Molde FK not to score	6.00	+12.5%	Lost
Draw	3.80	+11.9%	Lost
Molde FK at most 1 goal	2.10	+11.1%	Lost
Molde FK to win	2.40	+1.8%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Vålerenga IF	28.1%	35.9%	−7.8 pp	3.55
Draw	29.5%	24.8%	+4.6 pp	3.40
Molde FK	42.4%	39.3%	+3.1 pp	2.36

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Vålerenga IF to score	74.2%	82.8%	−8.6 pp	1.35
Vålerenga IF not to score	25.8%	17.2%	+8.6 pp	3.88
Molde FK to score	81.3%	84.2%	−3.0 pp	1.23
Molde FK not to score	18.7%	15.8%	+3.0 pp	5.33
Both teams to score	62.0%	70.9%	−8.9 pp	1.61
Both teams not to score	38.0%	29.1%	+8.9 pp	2.63
Vålerenga IF 2+ goals	36.1%	53.7%	−17.5 pp	2.77
Vålerenga IF at most 1 goal	63.9%	46.3%	+17.5 pp	1.57
Molde FK 2+ goals	47.1%	55.7%	−8.7 pp	2.12
Molde FK at most 1 goal	52.9%	44.3%	+8.7 pp	1.89
Over 1.5 goals	80.9%	86.4%	−5.5 pp	1.24
Under 1.5 goals	19.1%	13.6%	+5.5 pp	5.24
Over 2.5 goals	54.4%	69.4%	−15.1 pp	1.84
Under 2.5 goals	45.6%	30.6%	+15.1 pp	2.19

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Vålerenga IF sample: 20 matches
Molde FK sample: 20 matches
Computed: 1 day before kick-off
Prices taken: 1 day before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.