Sandefjord Fotball 3:0 IK Start: xG & match report · Eliteserien

Sunday, 20/09/2026 at 17:00

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Match report · Eliteserien

Sandefjord Fotball Home 2.24 xG · 18 shots

IK Start Away 0.23 xG · 7 shots

30 The scoreline reflected the chances

IK Start were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 35%. Sandefjord Fotball won 3–0. The biggest difference was IK Start's attack: 0.23 xG against 1.34 projected (−1.11). Sandefjord Fotball produced 2.24 xG against 1.32 projected (+0.92).

Goals

64' Ervin Gigović Sandefjord Fotball · 0.01 xG chance 1–0
72' Edvard Pettersen Sandefjord Fotball · 0.42 xG chance 2–0
80' Mathias Sauer Sandefjord Fotball · 0.08 xG chance 3–0

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Sandefjord Fotball: 34% What happened
Draw: 31%
IK Start: 35%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Sandefjord Fotball 1.32 2.24 +0.92

IK Start 1.34 0.23 -1.11

IK Start produced 1.11 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Sandefjord Fotball IK Start

Shots: 18; 7
On target: 5; 0
Inside the box: 11; 2
xG per shot: 0.12; 0.03
Open play xG: 2.10; 0.13
Set-piece xG: 0.01; 0.10
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.12 for Sandefjord Fotball.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

25 shots · 2.34 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Sandefjord Fotball
IK Start
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Sandefjord Fotball

1.11 xG created 2.03 xGA

L 1.05 created, 1.44 conceded against Fredrikstad FK
L 1.33 created, 2.25 conceded against KFUM Oslo
W 1.69 created, 2.43 conceded against Sarpsborg 08
D 0.97 created, 0.74 conceded against SK Brann
D 0.62 created, 2.16 conceded against Viking FK
L 1.01 created, 3.16 conceded against Bodø/Glimt

IK Start

2.17 xG created 1.48 xGA

W 1.47 created, 0.54 conceded against Kristiansund BK
L 2.48 created, 1.57 conceded against Viking FK
L 1.77 created, 1.53 conceded against Fredrikstad FK
W 3.43 created, 1.65 conceded against KFUM Oslo
L 1.67 created, 2.42 conceded against Aalesunds FK
W 2.22 created, 1.15 conceded against SK Brann

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

6 opportunities flagged0 won6 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Sandefjord Fotball against IK Start before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
IK Start to win	3.50	+23.2%	Lost
Sandefjord Fotball not to score	5.00	+19.4%	Lost
Sandefjord Fotball at most 1 goal	1.91	+16.4%	Lost
Draw	3.60	+10.1%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	2.25	+9.9%	Lost
IK Start to score	1.33	+2.2%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Sandefjord Fotball	34.2%	47.0%	−12.8 pp	2.92
Draw	30.6%	26.1%	+4.5 pp	3.27
IK Start	35.2%	26.9%	+8.3 pp	2.84

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Sandefjord Fotball to score	76.1%	81.1%	−5.0 pp	1.31
Sandefjord Fotball not to score	23.9%	18.9%	+5.0 pp	4.19
IK Start to score	76.6%	70.9%	+5.7 pp	1.30
IK Start not to score	23.4%	29.1%	−5.7 pp	4.28
Both teams to score	60.1%	58.9%	+1.2 pp	1.66
Both teams not to score	39.9%	41.1%	−1.2 pp	2.51
Sandefjord Fotball 2+ goals	39.0%	51.5%	−12.4 pp	2.56
Sandefjord Fotball at most 1 goal	61.0%	48.5%	+12.4 pp	1.64
IK Start 2+ goals	39.8%	37.5%	+2.3 pp	2.51
IK Start at most 1 goal	60.2%	62.5%	−2.3 pp	1.66
Over 1.5 goals	78.7%	79.2%	−0.5 pp	1.27
Under 1.5 goals	21.3%	20.8%	+0.5 pp	4.70
Over 2.5 goals	51.1%	58.2%	−7.1 pp	1.96
Under 2.5 goals	48.9%	41.8%	+7.1 pp	2.05

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Sandefjord Fotball sample: 20 matches
IK Start sample: 20 matches
Computed: 1 day before kick-off
Prices taken: 1 day before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.