Tromsø IL 0:0 Sarpsborg 08: xG & match report · Eliteserien

Sunday, 30/08/2026 at 17:00

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Match report · Eliteserien

Tromsø IL Home 1.38 xG · 15 shots

Sarpsborg 08 Away 0.51 xG · 5 shots

00 Tromsø IL had the better chances, but it finished level

Tromsø IL were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 40%. It finished 0–0. The biggest difference was Sarpsborg 08's attack: 0.51 xG against 1.14 projected (−0.63).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Tromsø IL: 40%
Draw: 32% What happened
Sarpsborg 08: 29%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Tromsø IL 1.35 1.38 +0.03

Sarpsborg 08 1.14 0.51 -0.63

Sarpsborg 08 produced 0.63 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Tromsø IL Sarpsborg 08

Shots: 15; 5
On target: 7; 2
Inside the box: 11; 4
xG per shot: 0.09; 0.10
Open play xG: 0.97; 0.51
Set-piece xG: 0.44; 0.00
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.39 for Tromsø IL.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

20 shots · 1.92 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Tromsø IL
Sarpsborg 08
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Tromsø IL

1.46 xG created 1.34 xGA

D 1.59 created, 0.90 conceded against Aalesunds FK
D 0.84 created, 0.36 conceded against KFUM Oslo
W 1.95 created, 0.77 conceded against Vålerenga IF
W 1.90 created, 0.80 conceded against HamKam
W 1.86 created, 2.69 conceded against Aalesunds FK
L 0.65 created, 2.50 conceded against Molde FK

Sarpsborg 08

1.68 xG created 1.46 xGA

W 1.31 created, 0.86 conceded against Viking FK
D 0.97 created, 0.71 conceded against Kristiansund BK
W 1.69 created, 1.03 conceded against HamKam
D 1.09 created, 1.62 conceded against Molde FK
L 2.57 created, 2.83 conceded against Viking FK
L 2.43 created, 1.69 conceded against Sandefjord Fotball

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Tromsø IL: 3 won · 0 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

4 opportunities flagged3 won1 lost

Lost
Won
Won
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Tromsø IL against Sarpsborg 08 before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Sarpsborg 08 to win	4.75	+52.0%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	2.35	+28.7%	Won
Under 1.5 goals	5.00	+28.2%	Won
Draw	3.90	+26.0%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Tromsø IL	39.5%	55.7%	−16.2 pp	2.53
Draw	31.5%	24.3%	+7.2 pp	3.17
Sarpsborg 08	28.9%	20.0%	+9.0 pp	3.45

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	56.3%	58.9%	−2.6 pp	1.78
Both teams not to score	43.7%	41.1%	+2.6 pp	2.29
Over 1.5 goals	75.3%	81.1%	−5.7 pp	1.33
Under 1.5 goals	24.7%	18.9%	+5.7 pp	4.06
Over 2.5 goals	46.4%	59.9%	−13.6 pp	2.16
Under 2.5 goals	53.6%	40.1%	+13.6 pp	1.86

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Tromsø IL sample: 20 matches
Sarpsborg 08 sample: 20 matches
Computed: 1 day before kick-off
Prices taken: 7 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.