Viking FK 8:1 Kristiansund BK: xG & match report · Eliteserien

Sunday, 13/09/2026 at 14:30

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Match report · Eliteserien

Viking FK Home 4.27 xG · 27 shots

Kristiansund BK Away 0.70 xG · 12 shots

81 The scoreline reflected the chances

Viking FK were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 53%. They won 8–1. The biggest difference was Viking FK's attack: 4.27 xG against 1.56 projected (+2.71).

Goals

4' Peter Christiansen Viking FK · 0.08 xG chance 1–0
6' Henrik Heggheim Viking FK · 0.59 xG chance 2–0
20' Kristoffer Haugen Viking FK · 0.43 xG chance 3–0
29' Erik Botheim Viking FK · 0.17 xG chance 4–0
45' Erik Botheim Viking FK · 0.14 xG chance – Scored in the same minute as another goal, so the score after it is not shown.
45' Leander Alvheim Kristiansund BK · 0.08 xG chance – Scored in the same minute as another goal, so the score after it is not shown.
58' Henrik Bjørdal Viking FK · 0.02 xG chance 6–1
82' Niklas Kemp Fuglestad Viking FK · 0.20 xG chance 7–1
90' Simen Kvia-Egeskog Viking FK · 0.10 xG chance 8–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Viking FK: 53% What happened
Draw: 29%
Kristiansund BK: 18%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Viking FK 1.56 4.27 +2.71

Kristiansund BK 0.87 0.70 -0.17

Viking FK produced 2.71 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Viking FK Kristiansund BK

Shots: 27; 12
On target: 13; 2
Inside the box: 22; 7
xG per shot: 0.17; 0.06
Open play xG: 2.78; 0.73
Set-piece xG: 0.88; 0.02
Penalties: 1; 0

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 3.62 for Viking FK and 0.74 for Kristiansund BK.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

39 shots · 5.23 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Viking FK
Kristiansund BK
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Viking FK

2.09 xG created 1.65 xGA

D 1.70 created, 1.98 conceded against Aalesunds FK
W 1.57 created, 2.48 conceded against IK Start
W 2.83 created, 2.57 conceded against Sarpsborg 08
L 1.86 created, 1.37 conceded against Rosenborg BK
W 2.42 created, 0.87 conceded against Aalesunds FK
D 2.16 created, 0.62 conceded against Sandefjord Fotball

Kristiansund BK

0.91 xG created 1.35 xGA

L 0.54 created, 1.47 conceded against IK Start
L 1.22 created, 1.23 conceded against KFUM Oslo
W 0.66 created, 3.21 conceded against Molde FK
L 1.28 created, 1.15 conceded against Fredrikstad FK
D 1.13 created, 0.71 conceded against HamKam
W 0.65 created, 0.35 conceded against Tromsø IL

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Viking FK: 3 won · 0 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

6 opportunities flagged0 won6 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Viking FK against Kristiansund BK before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Viking FK not to score	11.00	+100.9%	Lost
Viking FK at most 1 goal	3.50	+82.4%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	3.10	+70.6%	Lost
Draw	5.75	+69.1%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	6.50	+67.4%	Lost
Kristiansund BK to win	6.50	+16.8%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Viking FK	52.6%	69.1%	−16.5 pp	1.90
Draw	29.4%	16.4%	+13.0 pp	3.40
Kristiansund BK	18.0%	14.5%	+3.5 pp	5.57

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Viking FK to score	81.7%	91.3%	−9.5 pp	1.22
Viking FK not to score	18.3%	8.7%	+9.5 pp	5.48
Kristiansund BK to score	61.1%	60.8%	+0.4 pp	1.64
Kristiansund BK not to score	38.9%	39.2%	−0.4 pp	2.57
Both teams to score	51.7%	54.7%	−2.9 pp	1.93
Both teams not to score	48.3%	45.3%	+2.9 pp	2.07
Viking FK 2+ goals	47.9%	73.1%	−25.2 pp	2.09
Viking FK at most 1 goal	52.1%	26.9%	+25.2 pp	1.92
Kristiansund BK 2+ goals	21.4%	25.0%	−3.6 pp	4.68
Kristiansund BK at most 1 goal	78.6%	75.0%	+3.6 pp	1.27
Over 1.5 goals	74.2%	85.4%	−11.2 pp	1.35
Under 1.5 goals	25.8%	14.6%	+11.2 pp	3.88
Over 2.5 goals	45.0%	69.4%	−24.5 pp	2.22
Under 2.5 goals	55.0%	30.6%	+24.5 pp	1.82

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Viking FK sample: 20 matches
Kristiansund BK sample: 20 matches
Computed: 4 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 4 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.