Gameweek 3

What was written down before this round's deadline, against what happened. Nothing here is re-projected: a round already played cannot be forecast from totals that include its own result.

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Deadline: 19:30 closed
Projected · actual: 209 237

Fixture difficulty

Each club’s chance of winning this round’s fixture less its chance of losing it, in five bands.

1 Win likelier than loss by 50+ points
2 By 20 to 50 points
3 Within 20 either way
4 Loss likelier by 20 to 50
5 Loss likelier by 50+

What the numbers mean

Worked through on this round's most one-sided fixture: the model gives Manchester City 65% to beat Coventry City and 12% to lose, so the win is 53 percentage points the likelier — band 1. The other half of a fixture is the same subtraction the other way round, which puts Coventry City on band 5. Hover any badge to see the figures behind it.

Projected against actual

60 players projected before the deadline, against what the round actually paid.

Player Pos Price Start Min Proj Actual Miss

1 Erling Haaland FWD 15.5m 83% 90 4.30 9 −4.70 1 Erling Haaland 4.30 9 FWD 15.5m 90′ miss −4.70

2 Emersonn FWD 5.5m 83% 65 4.23 2 +2.23 2 Emersonn 4.23 2 FWD 5.5m 65′ miss +2.23

3 Igor Thiago FWD 8.0m 83% 90 4.19 2 +2.19 3 Igor Thiago 4.19 2 FWD 8.0m 90′ miss +2.19

4 Thierno Barry FWD 5.5m 83% 90 4.16 2 +2.16 4 Thierno Barry 4.16 2 FWD 5.5m 90′ miss +2.16

5 Alexander Isak FWD 9.0m 83% 63 4.15 13 −8.85 5 Alexander Isak 4.15 13 FWD 9.0m 63′ miss −8.85

6 Yoane Wissa FWD 6.1m 83% 90 3.98 1 +2.98 6 Yoane Wissa 3.98 1 FWD 6.1m 90′ miss +2.98

7 Igor Jesus FWD 5.9m 83% 31 3.84 1 +2.84 7 Igor Jesus 3.84 1 FWD 5.9m 31′ miss +2.84

8 Mamadou Sangaré MID 5.7m 83% 45 3.83 0 +3.83 8 Mamadou Sangaré 3.83 0 MID 5.7m 45′ miss +3.83

9 Bukayo Saka MID 9.5m 83% 89 3.80 2 +1.80 9 Bukayo Saka 3.80 2 MID 9.5m 89′ miss +1.80

10 Gonzalo García FWD 6.0m 83% 90 3.80 2 +1.80 10 Gonzalo García 3.80 2 FWD 6.0m 90′ miss +1.80

11 Maxim De Cuyper DEF 4.7m 83% 76 3.77 4 −0.23 11 Maxim De Cuyper 3.77 4 DEF 4.7m 76′ miss −0.23

12 John Egan DEF 4.0m 83% 90 3.72 6 −2.28 12 John Egan 3.72 6 DEF 4.0m 90′ miss −2.28

13 Bruno Fernandes MID 12.0m 83% 90 3.72 2 +1.72 13 Bruno Fernandes 3.72 2 MID 12.0m 90′ miss +1.72

14 Marc Guéhi DEF 6.0m 83% 90 3.71 8 −4.29 14 Marc Guéhi 3.71 8 DEF 6.0m 90′ miss −4.29

15 Nobel Mendy DEF 4.0m 83% 70 3.65 8 −4.35 15 Nobel Mendy 3.65 8 DEF 4.0m 70′ miss −4.35

16 Eddie Nketiah FWD 5.5m 83% 45 3.61 4 −0.39 16 Eddie Nketiah 3.61 4 FWD 5.5m 45′ miss −0.39

17 Kai Havertz FWD 7.5m 83% 77 3.60 8 −4.40 17 Kai Havertz 3.60 8 FWD 7.5m 77′ miss −4.40

18 Iliman Ndiaye MID 6.0m 83% 86 3.59 3 +0.59 18 Iliman Ndiaye 3.59 3 MID 6.0m 86′ miss +0.59

19 Oli McBurnie FWD 5.5m 83% 90 3.57 2 +1.57 19 Oli McBurnie 3.57 2 FWD 5.5m 90′ miss +1.57

20 Keane Lewis-Potter MID 5.5m 83% 90 3.54 2 +1.54 20 Keane Lewis-Potter 3.54 2 MID 5.5m 90′ miss +1.54

21 Brian Brobbey FWD 5.9m 83% 90 3.54 2 +1.54 21 Brian Brobbey 3.54 2 FWD 5.9m 90′ miss +1.54

22 Bryan Mbeumo MID 8.0m 83% 90 3.54 8 −4.46 22 Bryan Mbeumo 3.54 8 MID 8.0m 90′ miss −4.46

23 Phil Foden MID 7.0m 83% 24 3.52 1 +2.52 23 Phil Foden 3.52 1 MID 7.0m 24′ miss +2.52

24 Evanilson FWD 6.0m 83% 90 3.52 2 +1.52 24 Evanilson 3.52 2 FWD 6.0m 90′ miss +1.52

25 Kristoffer Ajer DEF 4.5m 83% 90 3.52 2 +1.52 25 Kristoffer Ajer 3.52 2 DEF 4.5m 90′ miss +1.52

26 Kevin Schade MID 6.0m 83% 90 3.47 2 +1.47 26 Kevin Schade 3.47 2 MID 6.0m 90′ miss +1.47

27 Anton Stach MID 6.0m 83% 90 3.46 2 +1.46 27 Anton Stach 3.46 2 MID 6.0m 90′ miss +1.46

28 Dominic Calvert-Lewin FWD 6.0m 83% 72 3.44 1 +2.44 28 Dominic Calvert-Lewin 3.44 1 FWD 6.0m 72′ miss +2.44

29 Morgan Gibbs-White MID 7.9m 83% 90 3.44 3 +0.44 29 Morgan Gibbs-White 3.44 3 MID 7.9m 90′ miss +0.44

30 João Pedro FWD 7.7m 83% 90 3.42 1 +2.42 30 João Pedro 3.42 1 FWD 7.7m 90′ miss +2.42

31 Elliot Anderson MID 6.4m 83% 90 3.41 3 +0.41 31 Elliot Anderson 3.41 3 MID 6.4m 90′ miss +0.41

32 Dan Ndoye MID 5.5m 83% 58 3.41 1 +2.41 32 Dan Ndoye 3.41 1 MID 5.5m 58′ miss +2.41

33 Diego Gómez MID 5.0m 83% 90 3.41 2 +1.41 33 Diego Gómez 3.41 2 MID 5.0m 90′ miss +1.41

34 Dominik Szoboszlai MID 7.0m 83% 90 3.35 3 +0.35 34 Dominik Szoboszlai 3.35 3 MID 7.0m 90′ miss +0.35

35 Martin Ødegaard MID 6.6m 83% 76 3.32 10 −6.68 35 Martin Ødegaard 3.32 10 MID 6.6m 76′ miss −6.68

36 Alex Scott MID 6.0m 83% 90 3.31 10 −6.69 36 Alex Scott 3.31 10 MID 6.0m 90′ miss −6.69

37 Rúben Dias DEF 5.5m 83% 90 3.31 6 −2.69 37 Rúben Dias 3.31 6 DEF 5.5m 90′ miss −2.69

38 Joško Gvardiol DEF 5.6m 83% 90 3.28 8 −4.72 38 Joško Gvardiol 3.28 8 DEF 5.6m 90′ miss −4.72

39 Gianluigi Donnarumma GKP 5.5m 83% 90 3.27 7 −3.73 39 Gianluigi Donnarumma 3.27 7 GKP 5.5m 90′ miss −3.73

40 Julio Enciso MID 5.5m 83% 90 3.26 1 +2.26 40 Julio Enciso 3.26 1 MID 5.5m 90′ miss +2.26

41 Riccardo Calafiori DEF 5.7m 83% 66 3.26 2 +1.26 41 Riccardo Calafiori 3.26 2 DEF 5.7m 66′ miss +1.26

42 Pascal Groß MID 5.5m 83% 90 3.26 1 +2.26 42 Pascal Groß 3.26 1 MID 5.5m 90′ miss +2.26

43 Cody Gakpo MID 7.1m 83% 90 3.26 11 −7.74 43 Cody Gakpo 3.26 11 MID 7.1m 90′ miss −7.74

44 Benjamin White DEF 5.5m 83% 90 3.25 2 +1.25 44 Benjamin White 3.25 2 DEF 5.5m 90′ miss +1.25

45 Vitaly Janelt MID 5.0m 83% 90 3.23 11 −7.77 45 Vitaly Janelt 3.23 11 MID 5.0m 90′ miss −7.77

46 Mats Wieffer DEF 5.0m 83% 0 3.23 0 +3.23 46 Mats Wieffer 3.23 0 DEF 5.0m 0′ miss +3.23

47 Marcelino Núñez MID 5.0m 83% 0 3.22 0 +3.22 47 Marcelino Núñez 3.22 0 MID 5.0m 0′ miss +3.22

48 Nico O'Reilly DEF 6.5m 83% 0 3.21 0 +3.21 48 Nico O'Reilly 3.21 0 DEF 6.5m 0′ miss +3.21

49 Konstantinos Tzolakis GKP 4.6m 83% 90 3.20 6 −2.80 49 Konstantinos Tzolakis 3.20 6 GKP 4.6m 90′ miss −2.80

50 Michael Kayode DEF 4.6m 83% 45 3.19 1 +2.19 50 Michael Kayode 3.19 1 DEF 4.6m 45′ miss +2.19

51 Antoine Semenyo MID 8.5m 83% 90 3.18 6 −2.82 51 Antoine Semenyo 3.18 6 MID 8.5m 90′ miss −2.82

52 Granit Xhaka MID 5.5m 83% 90 3.18 3 +0.18 52 Granit Xhaka 3.18 3 MID 5.5m 90′ miss +0.18

53 Declan Rice MID 7.5m 83% 90 3.15 5 −1.85 53 Declan Rice 3.15 5 MID 7.5m 90′ miss −1.85

54 Lewis Hall DEF 5.1m 83% 89 3.15 4 −0.85 54 Lewis Hall 3.15 4 DEF 5.1m 89′ miss −0.85

55 Daizen Maeda MID 5.5m 83% 65 3.13 2 +1.13 55 Daizen Maeda 3.13 2 MID 5.5m 65′ miss +1.13

56 Murillo DEF 5.5m 83% 89 3.12 8 −4.88 56 Murillo 3.12 8 DEF 5.5m 89′ miss −4.88

57 Abdukodir Khusanov DEF 5.5m 83% 90 3.12 5 −1.88 57 Abdukodir Khusanov 3.12 5 DEF 5.5m 90′ miss −1.88

58 Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall MID 6.5m 83% 90 3.11 2 +1.11 58 Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall 3.11 2 MID 6.5m 90′ miss +1.11

59 Marcus Tavernier MID 6.0m 83% 88 3.10 10 −6.90 59 Marcus Tavernier 3.10 10 MID 6.0m 88′ miss −6.90

60 Youri Tielemans MID 5.9m 83% 90 3.10 2 +1.10 60 Youri Tielemans 3.10 2 MID 5.9m 90′ miss +1.10

Where the numbers come from

The model, not the feed

Clean-sheet and goals-conceded points come from this site's own model: a pair of expected-goal rates fitted for each fixture, run through a Dixon-Coles score matrix, so a clean sheet is priced as the probability of one rather than as an average. Goals and assists use Fantasy's own per-90 rates, rescaled to the fixture and shrunk towards the position average in proportion to how few minutes a player has behind him.

The largest source of error

Nobody publishes team sheets in advance. The start probability is estimated from recent rounds and the game's own fitness flags, and it is the largest source of error on this page — which is why it is shown beside every player rather than folded into his total.

The roughest term

Bonus is the roughest term here. It depends on finishing in the top three of a match's bonus-point ranking, which is a position among twenty-two players rather than a rate, so it is estimated from a player's own history and nothing more.