Gameweek 4

What was written down before this round's deadline, against what happened. Nothing here is re-projected: a round already played cannot be forecast from totals that include its own result.

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Deadline: 14:30 closed
Projected · actual: 219 276

Fixture difficulty

Each club’s chance of winning this round’s fixture less its chance of losing it, in five bands.

1 Win likelier than loss by 50+ points
2 By 20 to 50 points
3 Within 20 either way
4 Loss likelier by 20 to 50
5 Loss likelier by 50+

What the numbers mean

Worked through on this round's most one-sided fixture: the model gives Chelsea 57% to beat Hull City and 17% to lose, so the win is 40 percentage points the likelier — band 2. The other half of a fixture is the same subtraction the other way round, which puts Hull City on band 4. Hover any badge to see the figures behind it.

3 Aston Villa Nottingham Forest 3
3 Bournemouth Brentford 3
2 Chelsea Hull City 4
2 Crystal Palace Ipswich Town 4
3 Liverpool Fulham 3
3 Tottenham Hotspur Everton 3
3 Sunderland Arsenal 3
3 Coventry City Brighton & Hove Albion 3
3 Manchester United Manchester City 3
2 Leeds United Newcastle United 4

Projected against actual

60 players projected before the deadline, against what the round actually paid.

Player Pos Price Start Min Proj Actual Miss

1 João Pedro FWD 7.7m 88% 90 4.93 12 −7.07 1 João Pedro 4.93 12 FWD 7.7m 90′ miss −7.07

2 Dominic Calvert-Lewin FWD 6.0m 88% 77 4.49 10 −5.51 2 Dominic Calvert-Lewin 4.49 10 FWD 6.0m 77′ miss −5.51

3 Alexander Isak FWD 9.1m 88% 90 4.43 2 +2.43 3 Alexander Isak 4.43 2 FWD 9.1m 90′ miss +2.43

4 Anton Stach MID 6.0m 88% 87 4.34 3 +1.34 4 Anton Stach 4.34 3 MID 6.0m 87′ miss +1.34

5 Erling Haaland FWD 15.5m 88% 90 4.33 9 −4.67 5 Erling Haaland 4.33 9 FWD 15.5m 90′ miss −4.67

6 Marcus Tavernier MID 6.0m 88% 82 4.24 8 −3.76 6 Marcus Tavernier 4.24 8 MID 6.0m 82′ miss −3.76

7 Tarik Muharemović DEF 5.0m 88% 90 4.19 7 −2.81 7 Tarik Muharemović 4.19 7 DEF 5.0m 90′ miss −2.81

8 Alex Scott MID 6.0m 88% 90 4.08 4 +0.08 8 Alex Scott 4.08 4 MID 6.0m 90′ miss +0.08

9 Maxence Lacroix DEF 6.0m 88% 4 4.06 1 +3.06 9 Maxence Lacroix 4.06 1 DEF 6.0m 4′ miss +3.06

10 Morgan Rogers MID 7.6m 88% 90 4.03 8 −3.97 10 Morgan Rogers 4.03 8 MID 7.6m 90′ miss −3.97

11 Cole Palmer MID 9.6m 88% 90 4.02 5 −0.98 11 Cole Palmer 4.02 5 MID 9.6m 90′ miss −0.98

12 Bruno Fernandes MID 12.0m 88% 90 3.99 2 +1.99 12 Bruno Fernandes 3.99 2 MID 12.0m 90′ miss +1.99

13 Dominik Szoboszlai MID 7.0m 88% 90 3.87 3 +0.87 13 Dominik Szoboszlai 3.87 3 MID 7.0m 90′ miss +0.87

14 James Justin DEF 4.5m 88% 90 3.86 2 +1.86 14 James Justin 3.86 2 DEF 4.5m 90′ miss +1.86

15 Bryan Mbeumo MID 7.9m 88% 90 3.86 2 +1.86 15 Bryan Mbeumo 3.86 2 MID 7.9m 90′ miss +1.86

16 Igor Thiago FWD 7.9m 88% 90 3.85 1 +2.85 16 Igor Thiago 3.85 1 FWD 7.9m 90′ miss +2.85

17 Thierno Barry FWD 5.6m 88% 90 3.84 2 +1.84 17 Thierno Barry 3.84 2 FWD 5.6m 90′ miss +1.84

18 Gonzalo García FWD 6.0m 88% 76 3.80 2 +1.80 18 Gonzalo García 3.80 2 FWD 6.0m 76′ miss +1.80

19 Evanilson FWD 6.0m 88% 90 3.75 5 −1.25 19 Evanilson 3.75 5 FWD 6.0m 90′ miss −1.25

20 Ethan Ampadu MID 5.5m 88% 90 3.72 7 −3.28 20 Ethan Ampadu 3.72 7 MID 5.5m 90′ miss −3.28

21 Granit Xhaka MID 5.5m 88% 90 3.67 1 +2.67 21 Granit Xhaka 3.67 1 MID 5.5m 90′ miss +2.67

22 Bukayo Saka MID 9.5m 88% 90 3.65 8 −4.35 22 Bukayo Saka 3.65 8 MID 9.5m 90′ miss −4.35

23 Chris Richards DEF 5.0m 88% 90 3.62 2 +1.62 23 Chris Richards 3.62 2 DEF 5.0m 90′ miss +1.62

24 David Raya Martín GKP 6.0m 88% 90 3.60 14 −10.40 24 David Raya Martín 3.60 14 GKP 6.0m 90′ miss −10.40

25 Riccardo Calafiori DEF 5.7m 88% 90 3.60 6 −2.40 25 Riccardo Calafiori 3.60 6 DEF 5.7m 90′ miss −2.40

26 Benjamin White DEF 5.5m 88% 45 3.59 1 +2.59 26 Benjamin White 3.59 1 DEF 5.5m 45′ miss +2.59

27 Martin Ødegaard MID 6.6m 88% 84 3.57 3 +0.57 27 Martin Ødegaard 3.57 3 MID 6.6m 84′ miss +0.57

28 Gabriel Magalhães DEF 8.0m 88% 90 3.55 9 −5.45 28 Gabriel Magalhães 3.55 9 DEF 8.0m 90′ miss −5.45

29 Yoane Wissa FWD 6.2m 88% 90 3.55 2 +1.55 29 Yoane Wissa 3.55 2 FWD 6.2m 90′ miss +1.55

30 Kai Havertz FWD 7.5m 88% 90 3.54 1 +2.54 30 Kai Havertz 3.54 1 FWD 7.5m 90′ miss +2.54

31 António Silva DEF 5.0m 88% 90 3.54 3 +0.54 31 António Silva 3.54 3 DEF 5.0m 90′ miss +0.54

32 Bobby Thomas DEF 4.0m 88% 90 3.53 0 +3.53 32 Bobby Thomas 3.53 0 DEF 4.0m 90′ miss +3.53

33 Keane Lewis-Potter MID 5.5m 88% 59 3.51 1 +2.51 33 Keane Lewis-Potter 3.51 1 MID 5.5m 59′ miss +2.51

34 Tyrick Mitchell DEF 4.5m 88% 76 3.50 1 +2.50 34 Tyrick Mitchell 3.50 1 DEF 4.5m 76′ miss +2.50

35 Adam Wharton MID 5.5m 88% 76 3.49 2 +1.49 35 Adam Wharton 3.49 2 MID 5.5m 76′ miss +1.49

36 James Trafford GKP 5.0m 88% 90 3.49 3 +0.49 36 James Trafford 3.49 3 GKP 5.0m 90′ miss +0.49

37 Vitaly Janelt MID 5.0m 88% 90 3.48 4 −0.52 37 Vitaly Janelt 3.48 4 MID 5.0m 90′ miss −0.52

38 Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall MID 6.5m 88% 90 3.47 2 +1.47 38 Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall 3.47 2 MID 6.5m 90′ miss +1.47

39 Morgan Gibbs-White MID 7.9m 88% 90 3.47 8 −4.53 39 Morgan Gibbs-White 3.47 8 MID 7.9m 90′ miss −4.53

40 Jayden Bogle DEF 4.5m 88% 82 3.44 15 −11.56 40 Jayden Bogle 3.44 15 DEF 4.5m 82′ miss −11.56

41 Dean Henderson GKP 5.0m 88% 0 3.43 0 +3.43 41 Dean Henderson 3.43 0 GKP 5.0m 0′ miss +3.43

42 Josh King MID 5.5m 88% 76 3.42 3 +0.42 42 Josh King 3.42 3 MID 5.5m 76′ miss +0.42

43 Daichi Kamada MID 5.0m 88% 83 3.37 8 −4.63 43 Daichi Kamada 3.37 8 MID 5.0m 83′ miss −4.63

44 Emiliano Buendía Stati MID 5.9m 88% 62 3.36 2 +1.36 44 Emiliano Buendía Stati 3.36 2 MID 5.9m 62′ miss +1.36

45 Jan Paul van Hecke DEF 4.9m 88% 90 3.35 8 −4.65 45 Jan Paul van Hecke 3.35 8 DEF 4.9m 90′ miss −4.65

46 Pascal Groß MID 5.6m 88% 90 3.32 17 −13.68 46 Pascal Groß 3.32 17 MID 5.6m 90′ miss −13.68

47 John Egan DEF 4.1m 88% 90 3.31 2 +1.31 47 John Egan 3.31 2 DEF 4.1m 90′ miss +1.31

48 James Tarkowski DEF 6.0m 88% 90 3.31 8 −4.69 48 James Tarkowski 3.31 8 DEF 6.0m 90′ miss −4.69

49 Diego Gómez MID 5.0m 88% 83 3.30 3 +0.30 49 Diego Gómez 3.30 3 MID 5.0m 83′ miss +0.30

50 Kevin Schade MID 6.0m 88% 90 3.30 15 −11.70 50 Kevin Schade 3.30 15 MID 6.0m 90′ miss −11.70

51 Boubacar Kamara MID 5.0m 88% 90 3.29 2 +1.29 51 Boubacar Kamara 3.29 2 MID 5.0m 90′ miss +1.29

52 John McGinn MID 5.4m 88% 90 3.29 6 −2.71 52 John McGinn 3.29 6 MID 5.4m 90′ miss −2.71

53 James Hill DEF 5.5m 88% 90 3.28 2 +1.28 53 James Hill 3.28 2 DEF 5.5m 90′ miss +1.28

54 Maxim De Cuyper DEF 4.8m 88% 90 3.27 11 −7.73 54 Maxim De Cuyper 3.27 11 DEF 4.8m 90′ miss −7.73

55 Iliman Ndiaye MID 5.9m 88% 45 3.27 1 +2.27 55 Iliman Ndiaye 3.27 1 MID 5.9m 45′ miss +2.27

56 Oli McBurnie FWD 5.5m 88% 81 3.26 4 −0.74 56 Oli McBurnie 3.26 4 FWD 5.5m 81′ miss −0.74

57 Daniel Ballard DEF 4.9m 88% 90 3.26 0 +3.26 57 Daniel Ballard 3.26 0 DEF 4.9m 90′ miss +3.26

58 Ian Maatsen DEF 4.5m 88% 90 3.25 1 +2.25 58 Ian Maatsen 3.25 1 DEF 4.5m 90′ miss +2.25

59 Jaydee Canvot DEF 4.9m 88% 0 3.25 0 +3.25 59 Jaydee Canvot 3.25 0 DEF 4.9m 0′ miss +3.25

60 Konstantinos Tzolakis GKP 4.6m 88% 90 3.25 2 +1.25 60 Konstantinos Tzolakis 3.25 2 GKP 4.6m 90′ miss +1.25

Where the numbers come from

The model, not the feed

Clean-sheet and goals-conceded points come from this site's own model: a pair of expected-goal rates fitted for each fixture, run through a Dixon-Coles score matrix, so a clean sheet is priced as the probability of one rather than as an average. Goals and assists use Fantasy's own per-90 rates, rescaled to the fixture and shrunk towards the position average in proportion to how few minutes a player has behind him.

The largest source of error

Nobody publishes team sheets in advance. The start probability is estimated from recent rounds and the game's own fitness flags, and it is the largest source of error on this page — which is why it is shown beside every player rather than folded into his total.

The roughest term

Bonus is the roughest term here. It depends on finishing in the top three of a match's bonus-point ranking, which is a position among twenty-two players rather than a rate, so it is estimated from a player's own history and nothing more.