Gameweek 5

What was written down before this round's deadline, against what happened. Nothing here is re-projected: a round already played cannot be forecast from totals that include its own result.

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Deadline: 19:30 closed
Projected · actual: 226 250

Fixture difficulty

Each club’s chance of winning this round’s fixture less its chance of losing it, in five bands.

1 Win likelier than loss by 50+ points
2 By 20 to 50 points
3 Within 20 either way
4 Loss likelier by 20 to 50
5 Loss likelier by 50+

What the numbers mean

Worked through on this round's most one-sided fixture: the model gives Manchester City 55% to beat Sunderland and 18% to lose, so the win is 37 percentage points the likelier — band 2. The other half of a fixture is the same subtraction the other way round, which puts Sunderland on band 4. Hover any badge to see the figures behind it.

Projected against actual

60 players projected before the deadline, against what the round actually paid.

Player Pos Price Start Min Proj Actual Miss

1 Erling Haaland FWD 15.5m 90% 90 4.91 6 −1.09 1 Erling Haaland 4.91 6 FWD 15.5m 90′ miss −1.09

2 Thierno Barry FWD 5.6m 90% 90 4.52 6 −1.48 2 Thierno Barry 4.52 6 FWD 5.6m 90′ miss −1.48

3 Dominic Calvert-Lewin FWD 6.0m 90% 90 4.35 2 +2.35 3 Dominic Calvert-Lewin 4.35 2 FWD 6.0m 90′ miss +2.35

4 Anton Stach MID 6.0m 90% 90 4.32 5 −0.68 4 Anton Stach 4.32 5 MID 6.0m 90′ miss −0.68

5 Alex Scott MID 6.1m 90% 90 4.27 2 +2.27 5 Alex Scott 4.27 2 MID 6.1m 90′ miss +2.27

6 Marcus Tavernier MID 6.1m 90% 74 4.27 2 +2.27 6 Marcus Tavernier 4.27 2 MID 6.1m 74′ miss +2.27

7 Tarik Muharemović DEF 5.0m 90% 90 4.27 6 −1.73 7 Tarik Muharemović 4.27 6 DEF 5.0m 90′ miss −1.73

8 Morgan Gibbs-White MID 8.0m 90% 90 4.21 2 +2.21 8 Morgan Gibbs-White 4.21 2 MID 8.0m 90′ miss +2.21

9 Marc Guéhi DEF 6.0m 90% 90 4.17 4 +0.17 9 Marc Guéhi 4.17 4 DEF 6.0m 90′ miss +0.17

10 Vitaly Janelt MID 5.0m 90% 90 4.16 3 +1.16 10 Vitaly Janelt 4.16 3 MID 5.0m 90′ miss +1.16

11 Igor Thiago FWD 7.9m 90% 90 4.10 5 −0.90 11 Igor Thiago 4.10 5 FWD 7.9m 90′ miss −0.90

12 António Silva DEF 5.0m 90% 90 4.03 3 +1.03 12 António Silva 4.03 3 DEF 5.0m 90′ miss +1.03

13 Bukayo Saka MID 9.5m 90% 80 3.99 2 +1.99 13 Bukayo Saka 3.99 2 MID 9.5m 80′ miss +1.99

14 Murillo DEF 5.5m 90% 90 3.97 4 −0.03 14 Murillo 3.97 4 DEF 5.5m 90′ miss −0.03

15 John Egan DEF 4.1m 90% 77 3.97 1 +2.97 15 John Egan 3.97 1 DEF 4.1m 77′ miss +2.97

16 Bruno Fernandes MID 12.0m 90% 90 3.91 2 +1.91 16 Bruno Fernandes 3.91 2 MID 12.0m 90′ miss +1.91

17 Gonzalo García FWD 6.0m 90% 79 3.90 2 +1.90 17 Gonzalo García 3.90 2 FWD 6.0m 79′ miss +1.90

18 Alexander Isak FWD 9.1m 90% 80 3.88 8 −4.12 18 Alexander Isak 3.88 8 FWD 9.1m 80′ miss −4.12

19 Bryan Mbeumo MID 7.9m 90% 90 3.88 2 +1.88 19 Bryan Mbeumo 3.88 2 MID 7.9m 90′ miss +1.88

20 James Tarkowski DEF 6.1m 90% 90 3.87 14 −10.13 20 James Tarkowski 3.87 14 DEF 6.1m 90′ miss −10.13

21 Joško Gvardiol DEF 5.7m 90% 90 3.85 4 −0.15 21 Joško Gvardiol 3.85 4 DEF 5.7m 90′ miss −0.15

22 Jan Paul van Hecke DEF 4.9m 90% 90 3.83 6 −2.17 22 Jan Paul van Hecke 3.83 6 DEF 4.9m 90′ miss −2.17

23 Jayden Bogle DEF 4.5m 90% 66 3.80 5 −1.20 23 Jayden Bogle 3.80 5 DEF 4.5m 66′ miss −1.20

24 James Justin DEF 4.5m 90% 90 3.80 8 −4.20 24 James Justin 3.80 8 DEF 4.5m 90′ miss −4.20

25 Gianluigi Donnarumma GKP 5.5m 90% 90 3.78 2 +1.78 25 Gianluigi Donnarumma 3.78 2 GKP 5.5m 90′ miss +1.78

26 Yoane Wissa FWD 6.2m 90% 90 3.78 0 +3.78 26 Yoane Wissa 3.78 0 FWD 6.2m 90′ miss +3.78

27 Kevin Schade MID 6.1m 90% 90 3.77 9 −5.23 27 Kevin Schade 3.77 9 MID 6.1m 90′ miss −5.23

28 Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall MID 6.5m 90% 90 3.73 3 +0.73 28 Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall 3.73 3 MID 6.5m 90′ miss +0.73

29 Lewis Hall DEF 5.2m 90% 90 3.72 13 −9.28 29 Lewis Hall 3.72 13 DEF 5.2m 90′ miss −9.28

30 Ethan Ampadu MID 5.4m 90% 90 3.72 5 −1.28 30 Ethan Ampadu 3.72 5 MID 5.4m 90′ miss −1.28

31 Konstantinos Tzolakis GKP 4.6m 90% 90 3.70 6 −2.30 31 Konstantinos Tzolakis 3.70 6 GKP 4.6m 90′ miss −2.30

32 James Trafford GKP 5.0m 90% 90 3.67 10 −6.33 32 James Trafford 3.67 10 GKP 5.0m 90′ miss −6.33

33 Jarrad Branthwaite DEF 5.5m 90% 90 3.65 8 −4.35 33 Jarrad Branthwaite 3.65 8 DEF 5.5m 90′ miss −4.35

34 Adrien Truffert DEF 5.5m 90% 90 3.65 2 +1.65 34 Adrien Truffert 3.65 2 DEF 5.5m 90′ miss +1.65

35 David Raya Martín GKP 6.0m 90% 90 3.60 1 +2.60 35 David Raya Martín 3.60 1 GKP 6.0m 90′ miss +2.60

36 Evanilson FWD 6.0m 90% 90 3.60 2 +1.60 36 Evanilson 3.60 2 FWD 6.0m 90′ miss +1.60

37 Granit Xhaka MID 5.5m 90% 90 3.60 2 +1.60 37 Granit Xhaka 3.60 2 MID 5.5m 90′ miss +1.60

38 Pascal Groß MID 5.7m 90% 90 3.59 14 −10.41 38 Pascal Groß 3.59 14 MID 5.7m 90′ miss −10.41

39 Sven Botman DEF 5.0m 90% 90 3.58 4 −0.42 39 Sven Botman 3.58 4 DEF 5.0m 90′ miss −0.42

40 Rúben Dias DEF 5.5m 90% 90 3.58 1 +2.58 40 Rúben Dias 3.58 1 DEF 5.5m 90′ miss +2.58

41 Josh King MID 5.5m 90% 79 3.57 2 +1.57 41 Josh King 3.57 2 MID 5.5m 79′ miss +1.57

42 Martin Ødegaard MID 6.7m 90% 72 3.54 2 +1.54 42 Martin Ødegaard 3.54 2 MID 6.7m 72′ miss +1.54

43 Morgan Rogers MID 7.7m 90% 90 3.52 2 +1.52 43 Morgan Rogers 3.52 2 MID 7.7m 90′ miss +1.52

44 Kai Havertz FWD 7.6m 90% 90 3.51 2 +1.51 44 Kai Havertz 3.51 2 FWD 7.6m 90′ miss +1.51

45 Elliot Anderson MID 6.3m 90% 90 3.51 2 +1.51 45 Elliot Anderson 3.51 2 MID 6.3m 90′ miss +1.51

46 Vitalii Mykolenko DEF 4.5m 90% 90 3.49 5 −1.51 46 Vitalii Mykolenko 3.49 5 DEF 4.5m 90′ miss −1.51

47 Neco Williams DEF 5.0m 90% 90 3.49 2 +1.49 47 Neco Williams 3.49 2 DEF 5.0m 90′ miss +1.49

48 Cole Palmer MID 9.7m 90% 90 3.47 2 +1.47 48 Cole Palmer 3.47 2 MID 9.7m 90′ miss +1.47

49 James Hill DEF 5.5m 90% 90 3.45 4 −0.55 49 James Hill 3.45 4 DEF 5.5m 90′ miss −0.55

50 Kristoffer Ajer DEF 4.5m 90% 90 3.44 7 −3.56 50 Kristoffer Ajer 3.44 7 DEF 4.5m 90′ miss −3.56

51 Oli McBurnie FWD 5.5m 90% 90 3.44 1 +2.44 51 Oli McBurnie 3.44 1 FWD 5.5m 90′ miss +2.44

52 Caoimhín Kelleher GKP 5.0m 90% 90 3.43 6 −2.57 52 Caoimhín Kelleher 3.43 6 GKP 5.0m 90′ miss −2.57

53 Bobby Thomas DEF 4.0m 90% 90 3.42 9 −5.58 53 Bobby Thomas 3.42 9 DEF 4.0m 90′ miss −5.58

54 Maxim De Cuyper DEF 4.9m 90% 90 3.41 6 −2.59 54 Maxim De Cuyper 3.41 6 DEF 4.9m 90′ miss −2.59

55 Lukás Hornícek GKP 5.0m 90% 90 3.40 3 +0.40 55 Lukás Hornícek 3.40 3 GKP 5.0m 90′ miss +0.40

56 Enzo Le Fée MID 5.8m 90% 90 3.38 5 −1.62 56 Enzo Le Fée 3.38 5 MID 5.8m 90′ miss −1.62

57 Mamadou Sangaré MID 5.7m 90% 21 3.37 0 +3.37 57 Mamadou Sangaré 3.37 0 MID 5.7m 21′ miss +3.37

58 Dominik Szoboszlai MID 7.0m 90% 80 3.37 2 +1.37 58 Dominik Szoboszlai 3.37 2 MID 7.0m 80′ miss +1.37

59 Antonín Kinský GKP 4.5m 90% 90 3.37 2 +1.37 59 Antonín Kinský 3.37 2 GKP 4.5m 90′ miss +1.37

60 João Pedro FWD 7.8m 68% 0 3.36 0 +3.36 60 João Pedro 3.36 0 FWD 7.8m 0′ miss +3.36

Where the numbers come from

The model, not the feed

Clean-sheet and goals-conceded points come from this site's own model: a pair of expected-goal rates fitted for each fixture, run through a Dixon-Coles score matrix, so a clean sheet is priced as the probability of one rather than as an average. Goals and assists use Fantasy's own per-90 rates, rescaled to the fixture and shrunk towards the position average in proportion to how few minutes a player has behind him.

The largest source of error

Nobody publishes team sheets in advance. The start probability is estimated from recent rounds and the game's own fitness flags, and it is the largest source of error on this page — which is why it is shown beside every player rather than folded into his total.

The roughest term

Bonus is the roughest term here. It depends on finishing in the top three of a match's bonus-point ranking, which is a position among twenty-two players rather than a rate, so it is estimated from a player's own history and nothing more.