Fantasy Premier League
Who is actually going to play
Minutes are the largest single source of error in any projection, and they are the one thing no statistics feed predicts. Every player the game would let you field, banded on the start probability the rest of this section already multiplies by — with the number, the recent starts behind it and whatever the game has said about him printed alongside, because a band is a bucket and the figures are what keep it honest.
Alexander Isak
FWD · LIV · 9.1m · owned by 22%
69%
Start
58 expected minutes · rotation risk
He is projected 11.4 points over the next 5 rounds anyway, which is what makes him worth a warning rather than a footnote.
Gameweek 6 · 5-round window · feed of 01/10 11:39
Alexander Isak is the biggest projection the model does not expect to start: 11.4 over 5 rounds on 69% to start, which is rotation risk, and about 58 minutes expected.
Thigh injury - 75% chance of playing
Start
69%
What the minutes model puts him at, which is what the rotation risk band is a rounding of.
Mins
58
The minutes it expects him to play, blended across starting, coming on and not playing.
Ahead
11.4
His weighted score over the rounds ahead — high enough that a points column alone would sell him.
Of the 26 players your filters leave: 9 very safe, 3 safe, 8 a rotation risk, 6 at high risk or worse.
The top five on this board
The board as your controls leave it — the same five that open the table below.
-
Ranked 1 Dominic Calvert-Lewin92% Start
- Mins
- 77
- Ahead
- 12.6
- Price
- 6.0m
Very safe Full5 of 5 started
3.6- ARS (A)
- MUN (H)
- SUN (A)
- BOU (A)
- TOT (H)
-
Ranked 2 Emersonn92% Start
- Mins
- 59
- Ahead
- 11.6
- Price
- 5.5m
Very safe Full5 of 5 started
3.2- FUL (H)
- MCI (A)
- NFO (H)
- HUL (A)
- BOU (H)
-
Ranked 3 Erling Haaland92% Start
- Mins
- 83
- Ahead
- 16.7
- Price
- 15.6m
Very safe Full5 of 5 started
2.8- LIV (A)
- IPS (H)
- AVL (A)
- BHA (H)
- NFO (A)
-
Ranked 4 Evanilson92% Start
- Mins
- 78
- Ahead
- 11.5
- Price
- 6.0m
Very safe Full5 of 5 started
3.0- CHE (A)
- SUN (H)
- MUN (A)
- LEE (H)
- IPS (A)
-
Ranked 5 Gonzalo García92% Start
- Mins
- 78
- Ahead
- 13.4
- Price
- 6.0m
Very safe Full5 of 5 started
2.8- IPS (A)
- HUL (H)
- COV (A)
- AVL (A)
- NEW (H)
- Mins
- 77
- Ahead
- 12.6
- xGI
- 0.66
- Mins
- 63
- Ahead
- 10.5
- xGI
- 0.36
- Mins
- 58
- Ahead
- 11.4
- xGI
- 0.79
Thigh injury - 75% chance of playing
- Mins
- 56
- Ahead
- 10.8
- xGI
- 0.68
Hamstring injury - 75% chance of playing
- Mins
- 62
- Ahead
- 9.9
- xGI
- 0.42
Hamstring injury - 75% chance of playing
- Mins
- 54
- Ahead
- 8.4
- xGI
- 0.04
- Mins
- 35
- Ahead
- 6.5
- xGI
- 0.88
- Mins
- 47
- Ahead
- 8.2
- xGI
- 0.19
- Mins
- 52
- Ahead
- 8.0
- xGI
- 0.40
- Mins
- 53
- Ahead
- 9.5
- xGI
- 0.59
Knee injury - 75% chance of playing
- Mins
- 38
- Ahead
- 6.4
- xGI
- 0.15
- Mins
- 38
- Ahead
- 6.3
- xGI
- 0.31
- Mins
- 38
- Ahead
- 6.4
- xGI
- 0.47
- Mins
- 25
- Ahead
- 4.8
- xGI
- 0.27
- Mins
- 25
- Ahead
- 4.6
- xGI
- 0.54
- Mins
- 13
- Ahead
- 3.1
- xGI
- 1.16
What a band is here, and what it is not
There is no second minutes model on this page. Every band is a bucket cut from the start probability the projection on every other board has already been multiplied by — his last 5 rounds blended against his season rate, smoothed for how little of either there is, and multiplied by what the game says about his fitness.
The cuts are on that probability: 85% and above is very safe, 70% is safe, 45% is a rotation risk, 20% is high risk, and under that is very high risk. The number is printed beside the band on every row, because two players in the same band can be fifteen points of probability apart.
Nobody reaches a hundred per cent and nobody should. The model anchors every player against one round at even odds, so a player who has started every match of the window comes out in the low nineties — which is about what a nailed-on starter actually manages once rotation, knocks and suspensions are counted.
The expected minutes beside the band are the whole of the estimate: his chance of starting times what his own starts have been worth, plus his chance of coming on times what a substitute appearance is worth. It is not a prediction of one afternoon.
A short history is labelled rather than left out. Under 2 stored rounds the estimate is resting on his season totals and the model's own anchor rather than on rounds anybody can see, and the row says so.
The news column is the game's own, unedited, and it is the one input here no statistics feed carries. It arrives with the feed, so a suspension or an injury announced since the last refresh is not on this page yet — the refresh time is at the top.
A player with excellent underlying numbers and a poor band is shown as exactly that, and is neither hidden nor quietly demoted. The projection beside him already has his minutes in it; the band is there so the reader can see how much of that projection is a bet on selection.
The same band is the minimum-security filter on every board in this section, read off the same figure — so a board narrowed to “Safe” and this page's own safe column can never disagree about a player.
Every ranking here is in expected points or in the weighted score for the rounds ahead, which are the units this model is measured in. The value column is those figures restated over a price — it is a way of scanning the board, and nothing on this site backtests it.
The board is every player the game would let you field, the flagged included — whether a doubtful player is worth picking is a judgement the projection makes with his published chance of playing, not one made by hiding him.
What is measured here, and what is not
-
Measured The projected points
Replayed against gameweek 2 after it was played: an average miss of 1.617 points a player, against 1.842 for “predict what he has averaged so far”, over 456 players. Recorded Sunday, 6 September 2026 and refreshed by hand, so the date is part of the claim.