Sunday, 23/08/2026 at 18:30
Full timeClub Brugge KV 1:0 Cercle Brugge
Club Brugge KV were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 60%. They won 1–0. The biggest difference was Cercle Brugge's attack: 0.76 xG against 1.43 projected (−0.67). Club Brugge KV produced 1.83 xG against 2.46 projected (−0.63).
Goals
- 37' Nicolò Tresoldi Club Brugge KV · 0.78 xG chance 1–0
The model against the result
- Club Brugge KV
- 60% What happened
- Draw
- 21%
- Cercle Brugge
- 19%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Cercle Brugge produced 0.67 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 15
- 11
- On target
- 4
- 4
- Inside the box
- 11
- 7
- xG per shot
- 0.12
- 0.07
- Open play xG
- 1.41
- 0.59
- Set-piece xG
- 0.46
- 0.14
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.83 for Club Brugge KV and 0.71 for Cercle Brugge.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
26 shots · 2.60 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Club Brugge KV
- Cercle Brugge
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
2.76 xG created 0.98 xGA
- W 2.85 created, 0.60 conceded against Sint-Truidense VV
- W 2.31 created, 1.47 conceded against Royale Union Saint-Gilloise
- D 1.69 created, 0.83 conceded against KV Mechelen
- W 2.91 created, 1.42 conceded against KAA Gent
- W 3.85 created, 0.86 conceded against KV Kortrijk
- W 2.92 created, 0.72 conceded against Oud-Heverlee Leuven
2.25 xG created 1.52 xGA
- W 3.06 created, 0.84 conceded against FCV Dender
- W 0.76 created, 0.55 conceded against FCV Dender
- L 2.54 created, 1.52 conceded against SV Zulte Waregem
- L 1.52 created, 1.55 conceded against RAAL La Louvière
- D 1.47 created, 2.60 conceded against Standard Liège
- D 4.15 created, 2.04 conceded against Sint-Truidense VV
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
7 opportunities flagged1 won6 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cercle Brugge to win | 8.00 | +50.5% | Lost |
| Cercle Brugge 2+ goals | 3.40 | +46.7% | Lost |
| Cercle Brugge to score | 1.50 | +18.1% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.57 | +16.6% | Lost |
| Draw | 5.25 | +11.2% | Lost |
| Club Brugge KV at most 1 goal | 3.75 | +1.5% | Won |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.08 | +0.4% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Brugge KV | 60.0% | 71.1% | −11.1 pp | 1.67 |
| Draw | 21.2% | 17.4% | +3.7 pp | 4.72 |
| Cercle Brugge | 18.8% | 11.4% | +7.4 pp | 5.31 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Brugge KV to score | 93.1% | 92.6% | +0.5 pp | 1.07 |
| Club Brugge KV not to score | 6.9% | 7.4% | −0.5 pp | 14.42 |
| Cercle Brugge to score | 78.8% | 62.5% | +16.3 pp | 1.27 |
| Cercle Brugge not to score | 21.2% | 37.5% | −16.3 pp | 4.71 |
| Both teams to score | 74.2% | 58.9% | +15.3 pp | 1.35 |
| Both teams not to score | 25.8% | 41.1% | −15.3 pp | 3.88 |
| Club Brugge KV 2+ goals | 72.9% | 75.0% | −2.1 pp | 1.37 |
| Club Brugge KV at most 1 goal | 27.1% | 25.0% | +2.1 pp | 3.69 |
| Cercle Brugge 2+ goals | 43.2% | 27.7% | +15.5 pp | 2.32 |
| Cercle Brugge at most 1 goal | 56.8% | 72.3% | −15.5 pp | 1.76 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 92.7% | 88.1% | +4.6 pp | 1.08 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 7.3% | 11.9% | −4.6 pp | 13.72 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 76.9% | 72.9% | +4.0 pp | 1.30 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 23.1% | 27.1% | −4.0 pp | 4.33 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Club Brugge KV sample
- 20 matches
- Cercle Brugge sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 4 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 2 days before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.