Sunday, 30/08/2026 at 19:15
Full timeKVC Westerlo 2:2 SV Zulte Waregem
SV Zulte Waregem were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 41%. It finished 2–2. The biggest difference was KVC Westerlo's attack: 2.16 xG against 1.26 projected (+0.90).
Goals
- 8' Shunsuke Saito KVC Westerlo · 0.12 xG chance 1–0
- 25' Tobias Hedl SV Zulte Waregem · 0.21 xG chance 1–1
- 48' Norman Bassette (pen.) KVC Westerlo · 0.82 xG chance 2–1
- 63' Tobias Hedl SV Zulte Waregem · 0.72 xG chance 2–2
The model against the result
- KVC Westerlo
- 29%
- Draw
- 30% What happened
- SV Zulte Waregem
- 41%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
KVC Westerlo produced 0.90 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 16
- 14
- On target
- 7
- 5
- Inside the box
- 11
- 11
- xG per shot
- 0.14
- 0.11
- Open play xG
- 1.06
- 0.96
- Set-piece xG
- 0.33
- 0.54
- Penalties
- 1
- 0
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.38 for KVC Westerlo and 1.51 for SV Zulte Waregem.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
30 shots · 3.71 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- KVC Westerlo
- SV Zulte Waregem
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
0.84 xG created 2.14 xGA
- W 0.97 created, 0.82 conceded against RC Sporting Charleroi
- L 1.34 created, 2.57 conceded against Standard Liège
- L 0.43 created, 2.10 conceded against Royal Antwerp FC
- L 0.76 created, 1.79 conceded against Royale Union Saint-Gilloise
- L 0.85 created, 4.24 conceded against KRC Genk
- L 0.66 created, 1.34 conceded against Lommel SK
1.64 xG created 1.11 xGA
- W 1.88 created, 0.50 conceded against RAAL La Louvière
- W 1.52 created, 2.54 conceded against Cercle Brugge
- W 2.35 created, 1.38 conceded against FCV Dender
- W 0.51 created, 0.54 conceded against KRC Genk
- D 0.98 created, 0.89 conceded against Royale Union Saint-Gilloise
- W 2.62 created, 0.78 conceded against SK Beveren
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
3 opportunities flagged1 won2 lost
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.35 | +16.8% | Lost |
| Draw | 3.60 | +7.5% | Won |
| Both teams not to score | 2.63 | +1.3% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KVC Westerlo | 29.4% | 31.7% | −2.3 pp | 3.40 |
| Draw | 29.9% | 25.5% | +4.3 pp | 3.35 |
| SV Zulte Waregem | 40.7% | 42.8% | −2.0 pp | 2.45 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 61.4% | 64.5% | −3.1 pp | 1.63 |
| Both teams not to score | 38.6% | 35.5% | +3.1 pp | 2.59 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.2% | 81.1% | −0.9 pp | 1.25 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 19.8% | 18.9% | +0.9 pp | 5.05 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.3% | 59.9% | −6.6 pp | 1.88 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.7% | 40.1% | +6.6 pp | 2.14 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
Show Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- KVC Westerlo sample
- 20 matches
- SV Zulte Waregem sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 day before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 9 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.