Saturday, 22/08/2026 at 16:00
Full timeSV Zulte Waregem 4:0 SK Beveren
SV Zulte Waregem were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 54%. They won 4–0. The biggest difference was SV Zulte Waregem's attack: 2.62 xG against 1.71 projected (+0.91).
Goals
- 21' Thomas Claes SV Zulte Waregem · 0.07 xG chance 1–0
- 35' István Átrok SV Zulte Waregem · 0.39 xG chance 2–0
- 55' István Átrok SV Zulte Waregem · 0.40 xG chance 3–0
- 60' Anosike Ementa SV Zulte Waregem · 0.14 xG chance 4–0
The model against the result
- SV Zulte Waregem
- 54% What happened
- Draw
- 28%
- SK Beveren
- 18%
Data coverage One of these teams has only 2 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Projected vs produced
SV Zulte Waregem produced 0.91 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 17
- 10
- On target
- 7
- 3
- Inside the box
- 11
- 7
- xG per shot
- 0.15
- 0.08
- Open play xG
- 2.12
- 0.21
- Set-piece xG
- 0.47
- 0.59
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.62 for SV Zulte Waregem and 0.79 for SK Beveren.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
27 shots · 3.39 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- SV Zulte Waregem
- SK Beveren
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.50 xG created 1.28 xGA
- W 1.75 created, 1.80 conceded against RAAL La Louvière
- W 1.88 created, 0.50 conceded against RAAL La Louvière
- W 1.52 created, 2.54 conceded against Cercle Brugge
- W 2.35 created, 1.38 conceded against FCV Dender
- W 0.51 created, 0.54 conceded against KRC Genk
- D 0.98 created, 0.89 conceded against Royale Union Saint-Gilloise
0.80 xG created 1.74 xGA
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Pre-match model & market record
1 opportunity flagged1 won0 lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| SV Zulte Waregem to win | 1.95 | +6.1% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SV Zulte Waregem | 54.4% | 46.6% | +7.9 pp | 1.84 |
| Draw | 27.8% | 25.9% | +1.8 pp | 3.60 |
| SK Beveren | 17.8% | 27.5% | −9.7 pp | 5.61 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 56.1% | 54.7% | +1.5 pp | 1.78 |
| Both teams not to score | 43.9% | 45.3% | −1.5 pp | 2.28 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.7% | 75.0% | +3.7 pp | 1.27 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 21.3% | 25.0% | −3.7 pp | 4.69 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.1% | 51.3% | −0.2 pp | 1.96 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48.9% | 48.7% | +0.2 pp | 2.05 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
· 1 warningShow Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- SV Zulte Waregem sample
- 20 matches
- SK Beveren sample
- 2 matches
- Computed
- 7 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 day before kick-off
Warnings
- SK Beveren has only 2 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.