Saturday, 29/08/2026 at 20:45
Full timeOud-Heverlee Leuven 1:2 Standard Liège
Oud-Heverlee Leuven were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 41%. Standard Liège won 2–1. The biggest difference was Oud-Heverlee Leuven's attack: 1.89 xG against 1.53 projected (+0.36).
Goals
- 9' Casper Nielsen (pen.) Standard Liège · 0.82 xG chance 0–1
- 66' Wouter George Oud-Heverlee Leuven · 0.06 xG chance 1–1
- 68' Dennis Eckert Ayensa Standard Liège · 0.35 xG chance 1–2
The model against the result
- Oud-Heverlee Leuven
- 41%
- Draw
- 29%
- Standard Liège
- 30% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Oud-Heverlee Leuven produced 0.36 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 22
- 5
- On target
- 3
- 3
- Inside the box
- 16
- 3
- xG per shot
- 0.09
- 0.27
- Open play xG
- 1.50
- 0.51
- Set-piece xG
- 0.37
- 0.04
- Penalties
- 0
- 1
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.89 for Oud-Heverlee Leuven and 0.57 for Standard Liège.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
27 shots · 3.24 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Oud-Heverlee Leuven
- Standard Liège
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.06 xG created 2.03 xGA
- L 1.07 created, 1.74 conceded against Standard Liège
- W 1.34 created, 0.92 conceded against Royal Antwerp FC
- D 0.83 created, 2.18 conceded against RC Sporting Charleroi
- L 1.11 created, 1.25 conceded against KRC Genk
- L 1.30 created, 3.15 conceded against RC Sporting Charleroi
- L 0.72 created, 2.92 conceded against Club Brugge KV
1.53 xG created 1.76 xGA
- D 0.62 created, 2.04 conceded against KRC Genk
- W 2.57 created, 1.34 conceded against KVC Westerlo
- L 0.58 created, 1.91 conceded against RC Sporting Charleroi
- D 2.60 created, 1.47 conceded against Cercle Brugge
- D 1.64 created, 2.75 conceded against KV Mechelen
- W 1.15 created, 1.07 conceded against RAAL La Louvière
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
6 opportunities flagged4 won2 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oud-Heverlee Leuven 2+ goals | 2.38 | +10.6% | Lost |
| Oud-Heverlee Leuven to win | 2.70 | +10.2% | Lost |
| Oud-Heverlee Leuven to score | 1.29 | +4.1% | Won |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.88 | +3.7% | Won |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.25 | +1.8% | Won |
| Both teams to score | 1.62 | +1.3% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oud-Heverlee Leuven | 40.8% | 33.9% | +6.9 pp | 2.45 |
| Draw | 29.3% | 29.5% | −0.2 pp | 3.41 |
| Standard Liège | 29.9% | 36.6% | −6.7 pp | 3.35 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oud-Heverlee Leuven to score | 80.9% | 73.1% | +7.8 pp | 1.24 |
| Oud-Heverlee Leuven not to score | 19.1% | 26.9% | −7.8 pp | 5.24 |
| Standard Liège to score | 75.5% | 73.1% | +2.3 pp | 1.33 |
| Standard Liège not to score | 24.5% | 26.9% | −2.3 pp | 4.08 |
| Both teams to score | 62.7% | 57.7% | +5.1 pp | 1.59 |
| Both teams not to score | 37.3% | 42.3% | −5.1 pp | 2.68 |
| Oud-Heverlee Leuven 2+ goals | 46.6% | 39.2% | +7.3 pp | 2.15 |
| Oud-Heverlee Leuven at most 1 goal | 53.4% | 60.8% | −7.3 pp | 1.87 |
| Standard Liège 2+ goals | 38.2% | 41.1% | −3.0 pp | 2.62 |
| Standard Liège at most 1 goal | 61.8% | 58.9% | +3.0 pp | 1.62 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.4% | 75.0% | +6.4 pp | 1.23 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 18.6% | 25.0% | −6.4 pp | 5.39 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.3% | 50.7% | +4.6 pp | 1.81 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.7% | 49.3% | −4.6 pp | 2.24 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Oud-Heverlee Leuven sample
- 20 matches
- Standard Liège sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 11 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 11 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.