Saturday, 22/08/2026 at 18:15
Full timeRC Sporting Charleroi 2:0 KV Mechelen
RC Sporting Charleroi were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 54%. They won 2–0. The biggest difference was KV Mechelen's attack: 0.23 xG against 0.84 projected (−0.61).
Goals
- 35' Aiham Ousou RC Sporting Charleroi · 0.18 xG chance 1–0
- 77' Kevin Van Den Kerkhof RC Sporting Charleroi · 0.10 xG chance 2–0
The model against the result
- RC Sporting Charleroi
- 54% What happened
- Draw
- 29%
- KV Mechelen
- 17%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
KV Mechelen produced 0.61 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 12
- 5
- On target
- 4
- 0
- Inside the box
- 8
- 2
- xG per shot
- 0.13
- 0.05
- Open play xG
- 1.27
- 0.09
- Set-piece xG
- 0.28
- 0.15
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.53 for RC Sporting Charleroi and 0.23 for KV Mechelen.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
17 shots · 1.79 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- RC Sporting Charleroi
- KV Mechelen
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.64 xG created 0.97 xGA
- W 0.56 created, 1.78 conceded against Royal Antwerp FC
- L 0.82 created, 0.97 conceded against KVC Westerlo
- D 2.18 created, 0.83 conceded against Oud-Heverlee Leuven
- W 1.91 created, 0.58 conceded against Standard Liège
- W 3.15 created, 1.30 conceded against Oud-Heverlee Leuven
- W 1.25 created, 0.34 conceded against Lommel SK
0.98 xG created 1.58 xGA
- L 0.37 created, 2.52 conceded against Royale Union Saint-Gilloise
- D 1.16 created, 0.94 conceded against RSC Anderlecht
- D 0.83 created, 1.69 conceded against Club Brugge KV
- L 0.42 created, 1.52 conceded against Sint-Truidense VV
- L 0.34 created, 1.16 conceded against KAA Gent
- D 2.75 created, 1.64 conceded against Standard Liège
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
6 opportunities flagged3 won3 lost
- Won
- Won
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.00 | +12.2% | Won |
| KV Mechelen not to score | 2.63 | +6.3% | Won |
| Draw | 3.60 | +5.5% | Lost |
| RC Sporting Charleroi at most 1 goal | 2.00 | +4.3% | Lost |
| KV Mechelen at most 1 goal | 1.30 | +4.0% | Won |
| RC Sporting Charleroi not to score | 5.50 | +0.6% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RC Sporting Charleroi | 53.6% | 52.6% | +1.0 pp | 1.87 |
| Draw | 29.3% | 25.5% | +3.8 pp | 3.41 |
| KV Mechelen | 17.1% | 21.9% | −4.8 pp | 5.85 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RC Sporting Charleroi to score | 81.7% | 82.8% | −1.1 pp | 1.22 |
| RC Sporting Charleroi not to score | 18.3% | 17.2% | +1.1 pp | 5.47 |
| KV Mechelen to score | 59.5% | 64.5% | −5.0 pp | 1.68 |
| KV Mechelen not to score | 40.5% | 35.5% | +5.0 pp | 2.47 |
| Both teams to score | 50.4% | 53.3% | −3.0 pp | 1.99 |
| Both teams not to score | 49.6% | 46.7% | +3.0 pp | 2.01 |
| RC Sporting Charleroi 2+ goals | 47.8% | 53.7% | −5.8 pp | 2.09 |
| RC Sporting Charleroi at most 1 goal | 52.2% | 46.3% | +5.8 pp | 1.92 |
| KV Mechelen 2+ goals | 20.0% | 27.7% | −7.7 pp | 5.00 |
| KV Mechelen at most 1 goal | 80.0% | 72.3% | +7.7 pp | 1.25 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.4% | 75.4% | −2.0 pp | 1.36 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 26.6% | 24.6% | +2.0 pp | 3.76 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.9% | 53.7% | −9.8 pp | 2.28 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 56.1% | 46.3% | +9.8 pp | 1.78 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- RC Sporting Charleroi sample
- 20 matches
- KV Mechelen sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 9 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 day before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.