xgEdge

Expected goals

KV Mechelen expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

Jupiler Pro League · after 7 matches · updated 1 Oct

KV Mechelen's attacking and defensive expected goals in Jupiler Pro League 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

KV Mechelen xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
1.22 xG per match
#13/18
Attack (xG per match) across Jupiler Pro League, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 Club Brugge KV 2.16
#2 Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 2.09
#3 RC Sporting Charleroi 1.91
#4 Sint-Truidense VV 1.91
#5 Standard Liège 1.79
#6 KRC Genk 1.78
#7 Cercle Brugge 1.69
#8 RSC Anderlecht 1.62
#9 KVC Westerlo 1.45
#10 Royal Antwerp FC 1.34
#11 RAAL La Louvière 1.29
#12 SV Zulte Waregem 1.26
#13 KV Mechelen 1.22
#14 KAA Gent 1.16
#15 SK Beveren 1.11
#16 Oud-Heverlee Leuven 1.01
#17 KV Kortrijk 0.99
#18 Lommel SK 0.94
League avg
1.48
Total
8.55 7 matches
Defence
1.46 xGA per match
#8/18
Defence (xGA per match) across Jupiler Pro League, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 KAA Gent 0.66
#2 RSC Anderlecht 0.87
#3 Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 1.02
#4 RC Sporting Charleroi 1.06
#5 KRC Genk 1.08
#6 Club Brugge KV 1.20
#7 SV Zulte Waregem 1.31
#8 KV Mechelen 1.46
#9 Lommel SK 1.50
#10 Standard Liège 1.53
#11 RAAL La Louvière 1.65
#12 Cercle Brugge 1.75
#13 KVC Westerlo 1.81
#14 Sint-Truidense VV 1.84
#15 SK Beveren 1.86
#16 Oud-Heverlee Leuven 1.88
#17 KV Kortrijk 1.92
#18 Royal Antwerp FC 2.30
League avg
1.48
Total
10.21 7 matches
xG difference
-0.24 xGD per match
#11/18
xG difference (xGD per match) across Jupiler Pro League, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 Royale Union Saint-Gilloise +1.06
#2 Club Brugge KV +0.96
#3 RC Sporting Charleroi +0.86
#4 RSC Anderlecht +0.76
#5 KRC Genk +0.70
#6 KAA Gent +0.50
#7 Standard Liège +0.25
#8 Sint-Truidense VV +0.07
#9 SV Zulte Waregem -0.05
#10 Cercle Brugge -0.07
#11 KV Mechelen -0.24
#12 RAAL La Louvière -0.36
#13 KVC Westerlo -0.37
#14 Lommel SK -0.56
#15 SK Beveren -0.75
#16 Oud-Heverlee Leuven -0.87
#17 KV Kortrijk -0.93
#18 Royal Antwerp FC -0.97
League avg
0.00
Total
-1.66 7 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
1.19 xPts per match
#12/18
Expected points (xPts per match) across Jupiler Pro League, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 RC Sporting Charleroi 2.02
#2 Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 1.98
#3 Club Brugge KV 1.90
#4 RSC Anderlecht 1.88
#5 KAA Gent 1.81
#6 KRC Genk 1.64
#7 Standard Liège 1.48
#8 Sint-Truidense VV 1.44
#9 SV Zulte Waregem 1.34
#10 Cercle Brugge 1.25
#11 KVC Westerlo 1.24
#12 KV Mechelen 1.19
#13 RAAL La Louvière 1.08
#14 Royal Antwerp FC 1.00
#15 Lommel SK 1.00
#16 SK Beveren 0.95
#17 KV Kortrijk 0.87
#18 Oud-Heverlee Leuven 0.86
League avg
1.39
Total
8.34 vs 3 actual pts

Early-season figures: after 7 matches, per-match rates can move quickly.

What the xG says

KV Mechelen's underlying numbers sit close to the Jupiler Pro League average. They rank #11 for xG difference at -0.24 per match, from low shot volume and low chance quality. Their 5 goals are 3.55 below 8.55 xG, while 3 points are 5.34 below 8.34 xPts. After only 7 matches, those gaps should still be read cautiously.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG Includes 1.45 xG from penalties
5 8.55 -3.55 scored 3.55 fewer than xG outside normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
14 10.21 +3.79 conceded 3.79 more than xGA outside normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
3 8.34 -5.34 5.34 points below xPts outside normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

KV Mechelen are 3.55 goals below their xG after 7 matches.

Goals
5
xG
8.55
Gap
-3.55
Sun 09/08 Sun 16/08 Sat 22/08 Sat 29/08 Sat 05/09 Fri 11/09 Sat 19/09 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 +1 -0.34 -0.09 -0.32 -0.43 -1.01 -2.24 -3.55 -0.34 +0.25 -0.23 -0.11 -0.58 -1.23 -1.31 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
KV Mechelen: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Sun 09/08 KAA Gent 0 0.34 -0.34 -0.34
Sun 16/08 Standard Liège 3 2.75 +0.25 -0.09
Sat 22/08 RC Sporting Charleroi 0 0.23 -0.23 -0.32
Sat 29/08 RAAL La Louvière 2 2.11 -0.11 -0.43
Sat 05/09 KVC Westerlo 0 0.58 -0.58 -1.01
Fri 11/09 RSC Anderlecht 0 1.23 -1.23 -2.24
Sat 19/09 Lommel SK 0 1.31 -1.31 -3.55

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

KV Mechelen xG trend

Current form -0.43 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 3 of 7 matches. The worst was against KVC Westerlo on Sat 05/09 (-2.02).

npxG · last 6
1.13
npxGA · last 6
1.56
-3 -2 -1 0 +1 -0.83 Sun 09/08 -0.47 Sun 16/08 -1.30 Sat 22/08 +0.04 Sat 29/08 -2.02 Sat 05/09 +0.32 Fri 11/09 +0.83 Sat 19/09 -0.49 season avg
KV Mechelen: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Sun 09/08 KAA Gent 0.34 1.17 -0.83 -0.83
Sun 16/08 Standard Liège 1.17 1.64 -0.47 -0.65
Sat 22/08 RC Sporting Charleroi 0.23 1.53 -1.30 -0.87
Sat 29/08 RAAL La Louvière 2.27 2.23 +0.04 -0.64
Sat 05/09 KVC Westerlo 0.55 2.57 -2.02 -0.92
Fri 11/09 RSC Anderlecht 1.23 0.91 +0.32 -0.71
Sat 19/09 Lommel SK 1.31 0.48 +0.83 -0.49

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 1.01 npxG and 1.50 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
tied number 13 hardest of 18 in Jupiler Pro League
−0.06 xG vs league average
Over 7 league matches
Last 5
number 13 hardest of 18 in Jupiler Pro League
−0.06 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

−0.06 xG vs league average · over 7 matches · tied number 13 hardest of 18

  1. Lommel SK Away −0.43
  2. RSC Anderlecht Home +0.21
  3. KVC Westerlo Home −0.09
  4. RAAL La Louvière Away −0.30
  5. RC Sporting Charleroi Away +0.29
  6. Standard Liège Home −0.19
  7. KAA Gent Away +0.09

Last 5

−0.06 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · number 13 hardest of 18

  1. Lommel SK Away −0.43
  2. RSC Anderlecht Home +0.21
  3. KVC Westerlo Home −0.09
  4. RAAL La Louvière Away −0.30
  5. RC Sporting Charleroi Away +0.29

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

KV Mechelen shots and chance quality

Low volume, low quality. KV Mechelen take 11.9 shots a match (league 14.2) at 0.09 npxG a shot (league 0.10), #14 in Jupiler Pro League for volume and #15 for quality. 72% of their shots come from inside the box (league 69%), and set pieces produce 39% of their npxG (league 25%).

Attack

Shot volume
11.9 shots per match
#14/18
Shot volume (shots per match) across Jupiler Pro League, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Club Brugge KV 18.7
#2 RC Sporting Charleroi 18.0
=3 Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 17.3
=3 Sint-Truidense VV 17.3
#5 RSC Anderlecht 16.6
#6 KVC Westerlo 15.3
#7 Royal Antwerp FC 15.1
#8 Cercle Brugge 14.7
#9 KRC Genk 14.1
#10 Standard Liège 14.0
#11 Oud-Heverlee Leuven 13.1
#12 SV Zulte Waregem 12.9
#13 KAA Gent 12.4
#14 KV Mechelen 11.9
#15 KV Kortrijk 11.7
#16 RAAL La Louvière 10.9
#17 SK Beveren 10.7
#18 Lommel SK 10.0
League avg
14.2
Total
83 shots from 7 matches
Chance quality
0.09 npxG per shot
#15/18
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Jupiler Pro League, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 0.12
#2 Standard Liège 0.11
#3 Sint-Truidense VV 0.11
#4 RAAL La Louvière 0.11
#5 KRC Genk 0.11
#6 Club Brugge KV 0.10
#7 Cercle Brugge 0.10
#8 RSC Anderlecht 0.10
#9 SV Zulte Waregem 0.10
#10 RC Sporting Charleroi 0.10
#11 SK Beveren 0.09
#12 KVC Westerlo 0.09
#13 KV Kortrijk 0.09
#14 KAA Gent 0.09
#15 KV Mechelen 0.09
#16 Royal Antwerp FC 0.08
#17 Lommel SK 0.08
#18 Oud-Heverlee Leuven 0.08
League avg
0.10
Total
7.10 npxG from 83 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
14.3 shots per match
#8/18
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Jupiler Pro League, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 RSC Anderlecht 9.9
#2 KAA Gent 10.3
#3 RC Sporting Charleroi 11.0
#4 Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 11.3
#5 SV Zulte Waregem 12.1
#6 Club Brugge KV 13.1
#7 Cercle Brugge 13.6
#8 KV Mechelen 14.3
#9 KRC Genk 14.7
=10 KV Kortrijk 14.9
=10 Sint-Truidense VV 14.9
=12 KVC Westerlo 15.0
=12 Oud-Heverlee Leuven 15.0
#14 Standard Liège 15.3
#15 SK Beveren 15.6
#16 RAAL La Louvière 15.7
#17 Royal Antwerp FC 17.1
#18 Lommel SK 21.0
League avg
14.2
Total
100 shots allowed from 7 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.11 npxGA per shot
#11/18
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Jupiler Pro League, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 KRC Genk 0.07
#2 KAA Gent 0.07
#3 Lommel SK 0.07
#4 Standard Liège 0.08
#5 RSC Anderlecht 0.09
#6 RC Sporting Charleroi 0.09
#7 Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 0.09
#8 Club Brugge KV 0.09
#9 Oud-Heverlee Leuven 0.10
#10 SV Zulte Waregem 0.10
#11 KV Mechelen 0.11
#12 RAAL La Louvière 0.11
#13 Sint-Truidense VV 0.11
#14 SK Beveren 0.11
#15 Cercle Brugge 0.11
#16 KV Kortrijk 0.11
#17 KVC Westerlo 0.11
#18 Royal Antwerp FC 0.12
League avg
0.10
Total
10.53 npxGA from 100 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

72% inside the box

League avg 69%

From 60 of 83 shots over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Shots allowed, location

70% allowed inside the box

League avg 69%

From 70 of 100 shots allowed over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG comes from

61% open play · 39% set pieces

League avg 25% set pieces

From 2.7 of 7.0 npxG over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG allowed comes from

85% open play · 15% set pieces

League avg 25% set pieces

From 1.6 of 10.4 npxG allowed over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

How the shot figures are made →

KV Mechelen home and away xG

KV Mechelen per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 3 4
xG / match 1.52 1.00
xGA / match 1.65 1.31
xGD / match -0.13 -0.31
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 1.33 1.09

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every KV Mechelen match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

This season

Matches
7
xG / match
1.22
xGA / match
1.46
xGD / match
-0.24
Points
3 of 21
  1. Sat 19/09 Lommel SK A xG 1.31 xGA 0.48 xGD +0.83
  2. Fri 11/09 RSC Anderlecht H xG 1.23 xGA 0.91 xGD +0.32
  3. Sat 05/09 KVC Westerlo H Weakest underlying xG 0.58 xGA 2.41 xGD -1.83
  4. Sat 29/08 RAAL La Louvière A xG 2.11 xGA 2.17 xGD -0.06
  5. Sat 22/08 RC Sporting Charleroi A xG 0.23 xGA 1.44 xGD -1.21
  6. Sun 16/08 Standard Liège H Best underlying xG 2.75 P xGA 1.64 xGD +1.11
  7. Sun 09/08 KAA Gent A xG 0.34 xGA 1.16 xGD -0.82

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.00. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

KV Mechelen in Jupiler Pro League

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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