Saturday, 05/09/2026 at 16:00
Full timeRC Sporting Charleroi 2:3 Royale Union Saint-Gilloise
Royale Union Saint-Gilloise were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 36%. They won 3–2. The biggest difference was RC Sporting Charleroi's attack: 2.18 xG against 1.10 projected (+1.08).
Goals
- 12' Mohamed Koné (o.g.) Royale Union Saint-Gilloise · 0.19 xG chance 0–1
- 27' Freddy Mbemba RC Sporting Charleroi · 0.44 xG chance 1–1
- 41' Patrick Pflücke RC Sporting Charleroi · 0.49 xG chance 2–1
- 44' Adem Zorgane Royale Union Saint-Gilloise · 0.10 xG chance 2–2
- 49' Kamiel Van de Perre Royale Union Saint-Gilloise · 0.04 xG chance 2–3
The model against the result
- RC Sporting Charleroi
- 31%
- Draw
- 33%
- Royale Union Saint-Gilloise
- 36% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
RC Sporting Charleroi produced 1.08 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 20
- 18
- On target
- 5
- 8
- Inside the box
- 16
- 12
- xG per shot
- 0.11
- 0.08
- Open play xG
- 1.87
- 0.41
- Set-piece xG
- 0.32
- 0.99
- Penalties
- —
- —
RC Sporting Charleroi's shots add up to 2.19 xG and Royale Union Saint-Gilloise's to 1.40; the published figures are 2.18 and 1.24.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
38 shots · 3.59 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- RC Sporting Charleroi
- Royale Union Saint-Gilloise
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.94 xG created 0.75 xGA
- D 2.18 created, 0.83 conceded against Oud-Heverlee Leuven
- W 1.91 created, 0.58 conceded against Standard Liège
- W 3.15 created, 1.30 conceded against Oud-Heverlee Leuven
- W 1.25 created, 0.34 conceded against Lommel SK
- W 1.44 created, 0.23 conceded against KV Mechelen
- W 1.69 created, 1.20 conceded against KV Kortrijk
1.72 xG created 1.04 xGA
- D 1.17 created, 1.46 conceded against KAA Gent
- W 2.40 created, 0.87 conceded against RSC Anderlecht
- W 1.79 created, 0.76 conceded against KVC Westerlo
- D 0.89 created, 0.98 conceded against SV Zulte Waregem
- W 1.60 created, 1.34 conceded against RSC Anderlecht
- W 2.49 created, 0.85 conceded against Sint-Truidense VV
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
4 opportunities flagged0 won4 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.00 | +18.8% | Lost |
| Draw | 3.50 | +16.6% | Lost |
| RC Sporting Charleroi to win | 3.50 | +9.1% | Lost |
| Under 1.5 goals | 3.75 | +8.8% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RC Sporting Charleroi | 31.2% | 26.0% | +5.2 pp | 3.21 |
| Draw | 33.3% | 26.0% | +7.3 pp | 3.00 |
| Royale Union Saint-Gilloise | 35.5% | 47.9% | −12.4 pp | 2.82 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 52.4% | 54.7% | −2.3 pp | 1.91 |
| Both teams not to score | 47.6% | 45.3% | +2.3 pp | 2.10 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.0% | 75.0% | −4.0 pp | 1.41 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 29.0% | 25.0% | +4.0 pp | 3.45 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.6% | 52.6% | −12.0 pp | 2.46 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 59.4% | 47.4% | +12.0 pp | 1.68 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- RC Sporting Charleroi sample
- 20 matches
- Royale Union Saint-Gilloise sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 59 minutes before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 hour before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.