Sunday, 30/08/2026 at 16:00
Full timeRoyal Antwerp FC 1:4 Sint-Truidense VV
Royal Antwerp FC were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 38%. Sint-Truidense VV won 4–1. The biggest difference was Sint-Truidense VV's attack: 3.38 xG against 1.35 projected (+2.03). Royal Antwerp FC produced 0.77 xG against 1.48 projected (−0.71).
Goals
- 9' Ryotaro Araki Sint-Truidense VV · 0.07 xG chance 0–1
- 58' Snayder Porozo Royal Antwerp FC · 0.03 xG chance 1–1
- 73' Samed Baždar Sint-Truidense VV · 0.20 xG chance 1–2
- 76' Kaito Matsuzawa Sint-Truidense VV · 0.14 xG chance 1–3
- 90' Samed Baždar Sint-Truidense VV · 0.68 xG chance 1–4
The model against the result
- Royal Antwerp FC
- 38%
- Draw
- 29%
- Sint-Truidense VV
- 32% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Sint-Truidense VV produced 2.03 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 18
- 19
- On target
- 8
- 7
- Inside the box
- 10
- 12
- xG per shot
- 0.04
- 0.18
- Open play xG
- 0.39
- 2.46
- Set-piece xG
- 0.40
- 0.97
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.77 for Royal Antwerp FC and 3.38 for Sint-Truidense VV.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
37 shots · 4.22 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Royal Antwerp FC
- Sint-Truidense VV
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.50 xG created 1.24 xGA
- L 0.92 created, 1.34 conceded against Oud-Heverlee Leuven
- D 0.71 created, 2.63 conceded against KRC Genk
- W 2.10 created, 0.43 conceded against KVC Westerlo
- W 2.20 created, 0.96 conceded against SK Beveren
- W 1.19 created, 0.77 conceded against KV Kortrijk
- D 1.86 created, 1.30 conceded against KRC Genk
1.62 xG created 2.08 xGA
- L 0.60 created, 2.85 conceded against Club Brugge KV
- D 2.09 created, 1.55 conceded against KAA Gent
- L 1.50 created, 2.01 conceded against RSC Anderlecht
- W 1.52 created, 0.42 conceded against KV Mechelen
- D 1.98 created, 1.49 conceded against Lommel SK
- D 2.04 created, 4.15 conceded against Cercle Brugge
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
2 opportunities flagged1 won1 lost
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 3.66 | +1.6% | Lost |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.71 | +0.5% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Royal Antwerp FC | 38.3% | 40.5% | −2.2 pp | 2.61 |
| Draw | 29.5% | 26.3% | +3.1 pp | 3.39 |
| Sint-Truidense VV | 32.3% | 33.1% | −0.9 pp | 3.10 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.4% | 56.2% | −0.8 pp | 1.80 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.6% | 43.8% | +0.8 pp | 2.24 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
Show Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Royal Antwerp FC sample
- 20 matches
- Sint-Truidense VV sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 day before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 6 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.