RSC Anderlecht 1:0 KV Kortrijk: xG & match report · Jupiler Pro League

Thursday, 03/09/2026 at 20:30

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Match report · Jupiler Pro League

RSC Anderlecht Home 1.50 xG · 14 shots

KV Kortrijk Away 0.46 xG · 6 shots

10 The scoreline reflected the chances

RSC Anderlecht were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 52%. They won 1–0. The biggest difference was KV Kortrijk's attack: 0.46 xG against 1.22 projected (−0.76). RSC Anderlecht produced 1.50 xG against 1.88 projected (−0.38).

Goals

43' Danylo Sikan RSC Anderlecht · 0.38 xG chance 1–0

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

RSC Anderlecht: 52% What happened
Draw: 26%
KV Kortrijk: 22%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 3 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

RSC Anderlecht 1.88 1.50 -0.38

KV Kortrijk 1.22 0.46 -0.76

KV Kortrijk produced 0.76 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

RSC Anderlecht KV Kortrijk

Shots: 14; 6
On target: 5; 1
Inside the box: 11; 4
xG per shot: 0.11; 0.08
Open play xG: 1.23; 0.38
Set-piece xG: 0.24; 0.08
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.50 for RSC Anderlecht.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

20 shots · 1.93 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

RSC Anderlecht
KV Kortrijk
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

RSC Anderlecht

1.58 xG created 1.34 xGA

D 0.94 created, 1.16 conceded against KV Mechelen
W 2.01 created, 1.50 conceded against Sint-Truidense VV
L 0.87 created, 2.40 conceded against Royale Union Saint-Gilloise
W 3.05 created, 0.74 conceded against RAAL La Louvière
L 1.27 created, 0.64 conceded against SK Beveren
L 1.34 created, 1.60 conceded against Royale Union Saint-Gilloise

KV Kortrijk

0.94 xG created 2.24 xGA

L 0.86 created, 3.85 conceded against Club Brugge KV
L 0.77 created, 1.19 conceded against Royal Antwerp FC
L 1.20 created, 1.69 conceded against RC Sporting Charleroi

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

6 opportunities flagged1 won5 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on RSC Anderlecht against KV Kortrijk before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
KV Kortrijk to win	6.25	+36.5%	Lost
KV Kortrijk 2+ goals	3.50	+22.5%	Lost
Draw	4.50	+17.7%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.70	+10.8%	Lost
KV Kortrijk to score	1.50	+10.0%	Lost
RSC Anderlecht at most 1 goal	2.50	+4.6%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
RSC Anderlecht	52.0%	65.1%	−13.1 pp	1.92
Draw	26.2%	20.3%	+5.9 pp	3.82
KV Kortrijk	21.8%	14.6%	+7.2 pp	4.58

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
RSC Anderlecht to score	86.9%	86.4%	+0.5 pp	1.15
RSC Anderlecht not to score	13.1%	13.6%	−0.5 pp	7.66
KV Kortrijk to score	73.3%	62.5%	+10.8 pp	1.36
KV Kortrijk not to score	26.7%	37.5%	−10.8 pp	3.75
Both teams to score	65.2%	54.7%	+10.5 pp	1.53
Both teams not to score	34.8%	45.3%	−10.5 pp	2.87
RSC Anderlecht 2+ goals	58.2%	62.5%	−4.3 pp	1.72
RSC Anderlecht at most 1 goal	41.8%	37.5%	+4.3 pp	2.39
KV Kortrijk 2+ goals	35.0%	26.9%	+8.1 pp	2.86
KV Kortrijk at most 1 goal	65.0%	73.1%	−8.1 pp	1.54
Over 1.5 goals	85.3%	81.1%	+4.2 pp	1.17
Under 1.5 goals	14.7%	18.9%	−4.2 pp	6.79
Over 2.5 goals	61.9%	61.0%	+0.9 pp	1.62
Under 2.5 goals	38.1%	39.0%	−0.9 pp	2.62

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

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Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
RSC Anderlecht sample: 20 matches
KV Kortrijk sample: 3 matches
Computed: 10 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 10 hours before kick-off

Warnings

KV Kortrijk has only 3 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.