Saturday, 05/09/2026 at 20:45
Full timeSint-Truidense VV 4:0 RAAL La Louvière
Sint-Truidense VV were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 55%. They won 4–0. The biggest difference was RAAL La Louvière's attack: 0.44 xG against 1.15 projected (−0.71). Sint-Truidense VV produced 2.40 xG against 1.92 projected (+0.48).
Goals
- 41' Ryan Merlen Sint-Truidense VV · 0.18 xG chance 1–0
- 54' Robert-Jan Vanwesemael Sint-Truidense VV · 0.18 xG chance 2–0
- 73' Samed Baždar Sint-Truidense VV · 0.08 xG chance 3–0
- 78' Samed Baždar Sint-Truidense VV · 0.35 xG chance 4–0
The model against the result
- Sint-Truidense VV
- 55% What happened
- Draw
- 26%
- RAAL La Louvière
- 20%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
RAAL La Louvière produced 0.71 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 23
- 9
- On target
- 7
- 1
- Inside the box
- 20
- 3
- xG per shot
- 0.11
- 0.05
- Open play xG
- 1.65
- 0.26
- Set-piece xG
- 0.80
- 0.16
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.40 for Sint-Truidense VV and 0.44 for RAAL La Louvière.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
32 shots · 2.87 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Sint-Truidense VV
- RAAL La Louvière
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.88 xG created 1.89 xGA
- L 1.50 created, 2.01 conceded against RSC Anderlecht
- W 1.52 created, 0.42 conceded against KV Mechelen
- D 1.98 created, 1.49 conceded against Lommel SK
- D 2.04 created, 4.15 conceded against Cercle Brugge
- W 3.38 created, 0.77 conceded against Royal Antwerp FC
- L 0.85 created, 2.49 conceded against Royale Union Saint-Gilloise
1.29 xG created 1.75 xGA
- L 1.67 created, 1.47 conceded against FCV Dender
- W 1.55 created, 1.52 conceded against Cercle Brugge
- L 0.74 created, 3.05 conceded against RSC Anderlecht
- L 0.54 created, 1.18 conceded against KAA Gent
- L 1.07 created, 1.15 conceded against Standard Liège
- D 2.17 created, 2.11 conceded against KV Mechelen
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
5 opportunities flagged2 won3 lost
- Lost
- Won
- Won
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 1.75 | +11.2% | Lost |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.70 | +3.7% | Won |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.22 | +3.6% | Won |
| RAAL La Louvière to win | 5.25 | +3.5% | Lost |
| Draw | 3.90 | +0.1% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sint-Truidense VV | 54.6% | 59.9% | −5.3 pp | 1.83 |
| Draw | 25.7% | 23.0% | +2.6 pp | 3.90 |
| RAAL La Louvière | 19.7% | 17.1% | +2.6 pp | 5.07 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 63.6% | 53.3% | +10.2 pp | 1.57 |
| Both teams not to score | 36.4% | 46.7% | −10.2 pp | 2.74 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.8% | 76.6% | +8.2 pp | 1.18 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 15.2% | 23.4% | −8.2 pp | 6.56 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.0% | 55.3% | +5.8 pp | 1.64 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39.0% | 44.7% | −5.8 pp | 2.57 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Sint-Truidense VV sample
- 20 matches
- RAAL La Louvière sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 5 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 5 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.