Sunday, 30/08/2026 at 19:30
Full timeDeportivo La Coruña 3:1 Valencia
Valencia were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 37%. Deportivo La Coruña won 3–1. The biggest difference was Deportivo La Coruña's attack: 1.42 xG against 1.07 projected (+0.35).
Goals
- 13' César Tárrega (o.g.) Deportivo La Coruña · 0.10 xG chance 1–0
- 17' Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang Deportivo La Coruña · 0.44 xG chance 2–0
- 26' Umar Sadiq Valencia · 0.79 xG chance 2–1
- 59' Mouctar Diakhaby (o.g.) Deportivo La Coruña · 0.10 xG chance 3–1
The model against the result
- Deportivo La Coruña
- 29% What happened
- Draw
- 33%
- Valencia
- 37%
Data coverage One of these teams has only 2 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Projected vs produced
Deportivo La Coruña produced 0.35 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 13
- 12
- On target
- 6
- 4
- Inside the box
- 5
- 7
- xG per shot
- 0.12
- 0.11
- Open play xG
- 1.45
- 1.21
- Set-piece xG
- 0.17
- 0.16
- Penalties
- —
- —
Deportivo La Coruña's shots add up to 1.62 xG and Valencia's to 1.37; the published figures are 1.42 and 1.40.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
25 shots · 2.99 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Deportivo La Coruña
- Valencia
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
0.73 xG created 1.59 xGA
1.13 xG created 1.02 xGA
- W 1.19 created, 0.93 conceded against Athletic Club
- D 0.76 created, 1.16 conceded against Rayo Vallecano
- W 1.67 created, 1.15 conceded against Real Sociedad
- W 1.48 created, 1.52 conceded against Barcelona
- D 0.58 created, 0.66 conceded against Celta Vigo
- L 1.12 created, 0.71 conceded against Real Betis
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Pre-match model & market record
3 opportunities flagged1 won2 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 2.90 | +6.4% | Lost |
| Valencia to win | 3.10 | +4.5% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 2.00 | +1.6% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo La Coruña | 29.4% | 37.0% | −7.6 pp | 3.40 |
| Draw | 33.2% | 32.5% | +0.7 pp | 3.01 |
| Valencia | 37.3% | 30.4% | +6.9 pp | 2.68 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 52.1% | 46.7% | +5.5 pp | 1.92 |
| Both teams not to score | 47.9% | 53.3% | −5.5 pp | 2.09 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.9% | 65.6% | +5.3 pp | 1.41 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 29.1% | 34.4% | −5.3 pp | 3.43 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.4% | 38.0% | +2.4 pp | 2.47 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 59.6% | 62.0% | −2.4 pp | 1.68 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Deportivo La Coruña sample
- 2 matches
- Valencia sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 day before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 9 hours before kick-off
Warnings
- Deportivo La Coruña has only 2 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.