Elche 0:5 Barcelona: xG & match report · La Liga

Sunday, 23/08/2026 at 21:30

Full time

Match report · La Liga

Elche Home 0.70 xG · 7 shots

Barcelona Away 4.38 xG · 11 shots

05 The scoreline reflected the chances

Barcelona were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 49%. They won 5–0. The biggest difference was Barcelona's attack: 4.38 xG against 1.56 projected (+2.82). Elche produced 0.70 xG against 1.00 projected (−0.30).

Goals

14' Raphinha (pen.) Barcelona · 0.82 xG chance 0–1
45' Karim Adeyemi Barcelona · 0.50 xG chance 0–2
67' Raphinha Barcelona · 0.66 xG chance 0–3
71' Fermín López Barcelona · 0.72 xG chance 0–4
79' Fermín López Barcelona · 0.27 xG chance 0–5

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Elche: 21%
Draw: 30%
Barcelona: 49% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Elche 1.00 0.70 -0.30

Barcelona 1.56 4.38 +2.82

Barcelona produced 2.82 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Elche Barcelona

Shots: 7; 11
On target: 2; 7
Inside the box: 5; 10
xG per shot: 0.10; 0.38
Open play xG: 0.59; 2.99
Set-piece xG: 0.11; 0.35
Penalties: 0; 1

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 3.35 for Barcelona.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

18 shots · 4.86 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Elche
Barcelona
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Elche

0.93 xG created 0.99 xGA

L 1.71 created, 1.05 conceded against Celta Vigo
D 1.39 created, 2.05 conceded against Deportivo Alavés
L 0.40 created, 1.80 conceded against Real Betis
W 0.66 created, 0.11 conceded against Getafe
D 0.18 created, 0.58 conceded against Girona FC
D 1.23 created, 0.34 conceded against Deportivo La Coruña

Barcelona

1.24 xG created 0.91 xGA

W 1.88 created, 0.63 conceded against Getafe
W 1.29 created, 0.80 conceded against Osasuna
W 1.01 created, 0.85 conceded against Real Madrid
L 0.60 created, 0.72 conceded against Deportivo Alavés
W 1.12 created, 0.97 conceded against Real Betis
L 1.52 created, 1.48 conceded against Valencia

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Elche: 0 won · 0 drawn · 2 lost

Pre-match model & market record

8 opportunities flagged0 won8 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Elche against Barcelona before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Elche to win	9.00	+91.1%	Lost
Barcelona not to score	10.00	+82.8%	Lost
Draw	5.75	+69.9%	Lost
Barcelona at most 1 goal	3.25	+69.5%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	2.75	+41.9%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	5.50	+27.7%	Lost
Elche 2+ goals	4.33	+14.2%	Lost
Elche to score	1.62	+6.6%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Elche	21.2%	10.5%	+10.7 pp	4.71
Draw	29.5%	16.5%	+13.0 pp	3.39
Barcelona	49.2%	73.0%	−23.7 pp	2.03

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Elche to score	66.0%	57.7%	+8.3 pp	1.51
Elche not to score	34.0%	42.3%	−8.3 pp	2.94
Barcelona to score	81.7%	90.4%	−8.7 pp	1.22
Barcelona not to score	18.3%	9.6%	+8.7 pp	5.47
Both teams to score	55.7%	53.3%	+2.4 pp	1.80
Both teams not to score	44.3%	46.7%	−2.4 pp	2.26
Elche 2+ goals	26.4%	21.7%	+4.7 pp	3.79
Elche at most 1 goal	73.6%	78.3%	−4.7 pp	1.36
Barcelona 2+ goals	47.9%	70.9%	−23.1 pp	2.09
Barcelona at most 1 goal	52.1%	29.1%	+23.1 pp	1.92
Over 1.5 goals	76.8%	82.8%	−6.0 pp	1.30
Under 1.5 goals	23.2%	17.2%	+6.0 pp	4.31
Over 2.5 goals	48.4%	65.6%	−17.2 pp	2.07
Under 2.5 goals	51.6%	34.4%	+17.2 pp	1.94

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Elche sample: 20 matches
Barcelona sample: 20 matches
Computed: 7 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 2 days before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.