Not confirmed yet: the date can still move, and the kickoff time is set nearer the match.
Levante UD – Celta Vigo
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Levante UD
- 54%
- Draw
- 28%
- Celta Vigo
- 18%
| Levante UD | Draw | Celta Vigo | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.87 | 3.53 | 5.52 |
- Total goals
- 2.60
- Over 2.5 goals
- 49%
- Both teams to score
- 55%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Bookmaker prices appear once the league confirms this match's date and kickoff time. Until then the model's preview above is all there is to compare.
Why the model leans Levante UD
54% Levante UD to win
- Attack
- 6th vs 11th
- Levante UD attack v Celta Vigo defence
- Defence
- 18th vs 19th
- Levante UD defence v Celta Vigo attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.75 vs -0.31
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.66 – 0.94
- Levante UD v Celta Vigo
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Levante UD | Celta Vigo |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.33 · 8th | 1.01 · 15th |
| xGA / match | 2.08 · 19th | (better) 1.26 · 7th |
| xGD / match | -0.75 · 16th | (better) -0.26 · 10th |
| xPts / match | 1.04 · 17th | (better) 1.28 · 10th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.75 | (better) -0.31 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 37% of the model's distribution.
- Levante UD clean sheet
- 36%
- Levante UD 2+ goals
- 51%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 51%
- Both teams to score: no
- 45%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.6%
- 2:1
- 11.5%
- 2:0
- 10.4%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Levante UD sample
- 20 matches
- Celta Vigo sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Levante UD
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · Celta Vigo
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.