Sunday, 25/10/2026 at 16:15
21d 12h to kick-offCelta Vigo – Real Betis
Model updated 4 October, 03:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Celta Vigo
- 32%
- Draw
- 31%
- Real Betis
- 37%
| Celta Vigo | Draw | Real Betis | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.13 | 3.18 | 2.73 |
- Total goals
- 2.54
- Over 2.5 goals
- 48%
- Both teams to score
- 58%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model can't separate them
37% Real Betis to win
- Attack
- 5th vs 11th
- Real Betis attack v Celta Vigo defence
- Defence
- 17th vs 19th
- Real Betis defence v Celta Vigo attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.37 vs -0.31
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.22 – 1.32
- Celta Vigo v Real Betis
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Celta Vigo | Real Betis |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.01 · 15th | (better) 1.52 · 6th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.26 · 7th | 1.86 · 17th |
| xGD / match | (better) -0.26 · 10th | -0.34 · 12th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.28 · 10th | 1.20 · 11th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) -0.31 | -0.37 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- Real Betis clean sheet
- 27%
- Real Betis 2+ goals
- 39%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 52%
- Both teams to score: no
- 42%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 16.1%
- 1:2
- 9.7%
- 2:1
- 9.0%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Celta Vigo sample
- 20 matches
- Real Betis sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Celta Vigo
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · Real Betis
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 03:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.