Thursday, 17/09/2026 at 19:00
Full timeReal Betis 1:0 Getafe
Real Betis were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 51%. They won 1–0. The biggest difference was Getafe's attack: 0.32 xG against 0.84 projected (−0.52).
Goals
- 45' Abdessamad Ezzalzouli Real Betis · 0.33 xG chance 1–0
The model against the result
- Real Betis
- 51% What happened
- Draw
- 31%
- Getafe
- 19%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Getafe produced 0.52 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 22
- 8
- On target
- 7
- 2
- Inside the box
- 9
- 3
- xG per shot
- 0.07
- 0.04
- Open play xG
- 1.50
- 0.29
- Set-piece xG
- 0.07
- 0.04
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.53 for Real Betis and 0.32 for Getafe.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
30 shots · 1.90 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Real Betis
- Getafe
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.64 xG created 2.15 xGA
0.63 xG created 1.22 xGA
- W 0.21 created, 0.51 conceded against Osasuna
- L 0.24 created, 1.93 conceded against Deportivo Alavés
- W 1.24 created, 1.31 conceded against Racing de Santander
- L 0.68 created, 1.68 conceded against Osasuna
- D 0.65 created, 1.03 conceded against Celta Vigo
- D 0.78 created, 0.87 conceded against Deportivo La Coruña
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
6 opportunities flagged1 won5 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 3.90 | +19.1% | Lost |
| Getafe 2+ goals | 5.50 | +10.7% | Lost |
| Getafe to score | 1.83 | +9.4% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 2.10 | +3.7% | Lost |
| Real Betis at most 1 goal | 1.83 | +1.5% | Won |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.40 | +0.0% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Betis | 50.9% | 56.8% | −5.8 pp | 1.96 |
| Draw | 30.5% | 24.3% | +6.3 pp | 3.27 |
| Getafe | 18.5% | 18.9% | −0.4 pp | 5.40 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Betis to score | 79.7% | 79.2% | +0.5 pp | 1.25 |
| Real Betis not to score | 20.3% | 20.8% | −0.5 pp | 4.93 |
| Getafe to score | 59.7% | 50.0% | +9.7 pp | 1.68 |
| Getafe not to score | 40.3% | 50.0% | −9.7 pp | 2.48 |
| Both teams to score | 49.4% | 44.3% | +5.1 pp | 2.03 |
| Both teams not to score | 50.6% | 55.7% | −5.1 pp | 1.97 |
| Real Betis 2+ goals | 44.6% | 50.0% | −5.4 pp | 2.24 |
| Real Betis at most 1 goal | 55.4% | 50.0% | +5.4 pp | 1.81 |
| Getafe 2+ goals | 20.1% | 17.2% | +2.9 pp | 4.97 |
| Getafe at most 1 goal | 79.9% | 82.8% | −2.9 pp | 1.25 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.4% | 68.2% | +3.3 pp | 1.40 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 28.6% | 31.8% | −3.3 pp | 3.50 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.5% | 43.1% | −1.6 pp | 2.41 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 58.5% | 56.9% | +1.6 pp | 1.71 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Real Betis sample
- 20 matches
- Getafe sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 day before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 day before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.