Monday, 14/09/2026 at 21:00
Full timeVillarreal 1:2 Real Betis
Villarreal were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 47%. Real Betis won 2–1. The biggest difference was Real Betis's attack: 3.52 xG against 1.01 projected (+2.51). Villarreal produced 1.89 xG against 1.51 projected (+0.38).
Goals
- 29' Gerard Moreno Villarreal · 0.52 xG chance 1–0
- 39' Cucho Hernández Real Betis · 0.89 xG chance 1–1
- 43' Natan Real Betis · 0.22 xG chance 1–2
The model against the result
- Villarreal
- 47%
- Draw
- 30%
- Real Betis
- 22% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Real Betis produced 2.51 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 14
- 26
- On target
- 8
- 12
- Inside the box
- 11
- 20
- xG per shot
- 0.15
- 0.14
- Open play xG
- 1.13
- 3.27
- Set-piece xG
- 0.91
- 0.32
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.03 for Villarreal and 3.56 for Real Betis.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
40 shots · 5.63 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Villarreal
- Real Betis
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.77 xG created 1.14 xGA
- L 0.97 created, 1.49 conceded against Rayo Vallecano
- W 2.48 created, 1.16 conceded against Atlético Madrid
- D 0.67 created, 1.87 conceded against Racing de Santander
- D 3.60 created, 0.78 conceded against Atlético Madrid
- L 1.74 created, 0.73 conceded against Deportivo Alavés
- L 1.14 created, 0.79 conceded against Deportivo La Coruña
1.21 xG created 2.02 xGA
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
8 opportunities flagged1 won7 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.38 | +25.3% | Lost |
| Under 1.5 goals | 5.00 | +20.3% | Lost |
| Draw | 3.90 | +17.6% | Lost |
| Real Betis not to score | 3.40 | +14.2% | Lost |
| Villarreal at most 1 goal | 2.10 | +13.4% | Won |
| Real Betis at most 1 goal | 1.50 | +9.9% | Lost |
| Villarreal not to score | 5.50 | +6.8% | Lost |
| Both teams not to score | 2.38 | +6.2% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal | 47.5% | 48.6% | −1.1 pp | 2.11 |
| Draw | 30.1% | 24.3% | +5.8 pp | 3.32 |
| Real Betis | 22.4% | 27.1% | −4.7 pp | 4.47 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal to score | 80.6% | 82.8% | −2.2 pp | 1.24 |
| Villarreal not to score | 19.4% | 17.2% | +2.2 pp | 5.15 |
| Real Betis to score | 66.4% | 72.3% | −5.9 pp | 1.51 |
| Real Betis not to score | 33.6% | 27.7% | +5.9 pp | 2.98 |
| Both teams to score | 55.3% | 60.8% | −5.5 pp | 1.81 |
| Both teams not to score | 44.7% | 39.2% | +5.5 pp | 2.24 |
| Villarreal 2+ goals | 46.0% | 55.7% | −9.8 pp | 2.17 |
| Villarreal at most 1 goal | 54.0% | 44.3% | +9.8 pp | 1.85 |
| Real Betis 2+ goals | 26.7% | 37.5% | −10.8 pp | 3.74 |
| Real Betis at most 1 goal | 73.3% | 62.5% | +10.8 pp | 1.37 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.9% | 81.1% | −5.1 pp | 1.32 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 24.1% | 18.9% | +5.1 pp | 4.16 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.2% | 60.2% | −13.0 pp | 2.12 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 52.8% | 39.8% | +13.0 pp | 1.90 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Villarreal sample
- 20 matches
- Real Betis sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 12 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 12 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.