Friday, 21/08/2026 at 21:00
Full timeReal Betis 1:0 Real Sociedad
Real Betis were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 59%. They won 1–0. The biggest difference was Real Betis's attack: 1.24 xG against 1.86 projected (−0.62). Real Sociedad produced 1.36 xG against 0.93 projected (+0.43).
Goals
- 63' Rodrigo Riquelme Real Betis · 0.10 xG chance 1–0
The model against the result
- Real Betis
- 59% What happened
- Draw
- 26%
- Real Sociedad
- 15%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Real Betis produced 0.62 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 18
- 9
- On target
- 7
- 3
- Inside the box
- 9
- 5
- xG per shot
- 0.06
- 0.16
- Open play xG
- 0.98
- 1.44
- Set-piece xG
- 0.09
- 0.00
- Penalties
- —
- —
Real Betis's shots add up to 1.07 xG and Real Sociedad's to 1.44; the published figures are 1.24 and 1.36.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
27 shots · 2.51 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Real Betis
- Real Sociedad
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.47 xG created 1.50 xGA
1.28 xG created 2.06 xGA
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
6 opportunities flagged3 won3 lost
- Won
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Betis to win | 2.00 | +17.5% | Won |
| Real Betis 2+ goals | 2.00 | +15.5% | Lost |
| Real Betis to score | 1.22 | +6.1% | Won |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.91 | +4.4% | Lost |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.29 | +4.1% | Lost |
| Real Sociedad at most 1 goal | 1.36 | +4.0% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Betis | 58.8% | 47.0% | +11.8 pp | 1.70 |
| Draw | 25.8% | 27.6% | −1.9 pp | 3.88 |
| Real Sociedad | 15.5% | 25.4% | −9.9 pp | 6.47 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Betis to score | 86.8% | 76.6% | +10.2 pp | 1.15 |
| Real Betis not to score | 13.2% | 23.4% | −10.2 pp | 7.59 |
| Real Sociedad to score | 63.8% | 66.3% | −2.5 pp | 1.57 |
| Real Sociedad not to score | 36.2% | 33.7% | +2.5 pp | 2.76 |
| Both teams to score | 56.9% | 53.3% | +3.6 pp | 1.76 |
| Both teams not to score | 43.1% | 46.7% | −3.6 pp | 2.32 |
| Real Betis 2+ goals | 57.7% | 46.3% | +11.4 pp | 1.73 |
| Real Betis at most 1 goal | 42.3% | 53.7% | −11.4 pp | 2.37 |
| Real Sociedad 2+ goals | 23.7% | 31.3% | −7.5 pp | 4.21 |
| Real Sociedad at most 1 goal | 76.3% | 68.7% | +7.5 pp | 1.31 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.9% | 74.5% | +6.5 pp | 1.24 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 19.1% | 25.5% | −6.5 pp | 5.25 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.7% | 50.0% | +4.7 pp | 1.83 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.3% | 50.0% | −4.7 pp | 2.21 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Real Betis sample
- 20 matches
- Real Sociedad sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 10 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 10 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.