Sunday, 11/10/2026 at 18:30
7d 14h to kick-offReal Betis – Osasuna
Model updated 4 October, 03:30 Best odds updated 10 October, 12:00
What the model expects
- Real Betis
- 50%
- Draw
- 29%
- Osasuna
- 21%
| Real Betis | Draw | Osasuna | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.99 | 3.48 | 4.73 |
- Total goals
- 2.67
- Over 2.5 goals
- 51%
- Both teams to score
- 58%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
The model sees an edge in 5 outcomes.
-
Real Betis
- Model
- 50.1%
- Market, margin removed
- 55.8%
- Probability gap
- −5.6 pp
- Edge
- −17.3%
- Fair odds
- 1.99
- Market odds
- 1.65 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 2.09
- Bookmaker margin
- 8.7%
-
Draw
- Model
- 28.7%
- Market, margin removed
- 24.9%
- Probability gap
- +3.9 pp
- Edge
- +6.3%
- Fair odds
- 3.48
- Market odds
- 3.70 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.65
- Bookmaker margin
- 8.7%
-
Osasuna
- Model
- 21.1%
- Market, margin removed
- 19.4%
- Probability gap
- +1.8 pp
- Edge
- +0.3%
- Fair odds
- 4.73
- Market odds
- 4.75 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 4.97
- Bookmaker margin
- 8.7%
Outcomes with value
Real Betis at most 1 goal
Measured model skill on this market: +3.62%.
Osasuna to score
Measured model skill on this market: +2.56%.
Osasuna to win
Measured model skill on this market: +7.20%.
Draw
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Both teams to score
No measured model skill on this market (-0.43%).
Best opportunity
Real Betis at most 1 goal
Model 49.8% vs. bookmaker 44.3%, margin removed.
Match result
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Measured model skill on this market: +7.20%.
Goals
Both teams to score
No measured model skill on this market (-0.43%).
Goals by team
Measured model skill on this market: +3.62%.
Measured model skill on this market: +2.56%.
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model leans Real Betis
50% Real Betis to win
- Attack
- 5th vs 9th
- Real Betis attack v Osasuna defence
- Defence
- 17th vs 16th
- Real Betis defence v Osasuna attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.37 vs -0.07
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.63 – 1.04
- Real Betis v Osasuna
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Real Betis | Osasuna |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.52 · 6th | 1.24 · 12th |
| xGA / match | 1.86 · 17th | (better) 1.39 · 12th |
| xGD / match | -0.34 · 12th | (better) -0.15 · 8th |
| xPts / match | 1.20 · 11th | (better) 1.36 · 7th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.37 | (better) -0.08 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- Real Betis clean sheet
- 33%
- Real Betis 2+ goals
- 50%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 49%
- Both teams to score: no
- 42%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.6%
- 2:1
- 11.3%
- 2:0
- 9.3%
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Real Betis sample
- 20 matches
- Osasuna sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Real Betis
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Osasuna
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 03:30
- Odds updated
- 1 minute ago
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.