Wednesday, 16/09/2026 at 19:00
Full timeAtlético Madrid 4:0 Osasuna
Atlético Madrid were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 40%. They won 4–0. The biggest difference was Atlético Madrid's attack: 3.97 xG against 1.30 projected (+2.67). Osasuna produced 0.48 xG against 1.04 projected (−0.56).
Goals
- 24' Jonathan David Atlético Madrid · 0.48 xG chance 1–0
- 54' Kang-in Lee Atlético Madrid · 0.30 xG chance 2–0
- 63' Robin Le Normand Atlético Madrid · 0.04 xG chance 3–0
- 82' Alex Baena Atlético Madrid · 0.31 xG chance 4–0
The model against the result
- Atlético Madrid
- 40% What happened
- Draw
- 32%
- Osasuna
- 27%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Atlético Madrid produced 2.67 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 27
- 3
- On target
- 11
- 1
- Inside the box
- 18
- 3
- xG per shot
- 0.15
- 0.15
- Open play xG
- 3.98
- 0.42
- Set-piece xG
- 0.07
- 0.04
- Penalties
- —
- —
Atlético Madrid's shots add up to 4.05 xG and Osasuna's to 0.46; the published figures are 3.97 and 0.48.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
30 shots · 4.51 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Atlético Madrid
- Osasuna
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.14 xG created 1.47 xGA
1.36 xG created 0.82 xGA
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
9 opportunities flagged0 won9 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Osasuna to win | 8.50 | +131.0% | Lost |
| Atlético Madrid not to score | 8.00 | +97.2% | Lost |
| Atlético Madrid at most 1 goal | 2.50 | +55.0% | Lost |
| Osasuna 2+ goals | 5.50 | +54.3% | Lost |
| Draw | 4.75 | +54.3% | Lost |
| Osasuna to score | 1.80 | +21.8% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.10 | +21.5% | Lost |
| Under 1.5 goals | 4.33 | +20.9% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.95 | +3.2% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético Madrid | 40.3% | 68.8% | −28.5 pp | 2.48 |
| Draw | 32.5% | 20.0% | +12.5 pp | 3.08 |
| Osasuna | 27.2% | 11.2% | +16.0 pp | 3.68 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético Madrid to score | 75.3% | 88.1% | −12.7 pp | 1.33 |
| Atlético Madrid not to score | 24.7% | 11.9% | +12.7 pp | 4.06 |
| Osasuna to score | 67.7% | 51.5% | +16.2 pp | 1.48 |
| Osasuna not to score | 32.3% | 48.5% | −16.2 pp | 3.09 |
| Both teams to score | 52.9% | 48.0% | +4.9 pp | 1.89 |
| Both teams not to score | 47.1% | 52.0% | −4.9 pp | 2.12 |
| Atlético Madrid 2+ goals | 38.0% | 62.5% | −24.5 pp | 2.63 |
| Atlético Madrid at most 1 goal | 62.0% | 37.5% | +24.5 pp | 1.61 |
| Osasuna 2+ goals | 28.1% | 17.2% | +10.8 pp | 3.56 |
| Osasuna at most 1 goal | 71.9% | 82.8% | −10.8 pp | 1.39 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.1% | 78.0% | −5.9 pp | 1.39 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 27.9% | 22.0% | +5.9 pp | 3.59 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.1% | 54.9% | −12.7 pp | 2.37 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 57.9% | 45.1% | +12.7 pp | 1.73 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Atlético Madrid sample
- 20 matches
- Osasuna sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 9 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 9 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.