Real Sociedad 0:3 Atlético Madrid: xG & match report · La Liga

Sunday, 13/09/2026 at 21:00

Full time

Match report · La Liga

Real Sociedad Home 0.27 xG · 8 shots

Atlético Madrid Away 2.05 xG · 13 shots

03 The scoreline reflected the chances

Real Sociedad were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 35%. Atlético Madrid won 3–0. The biggest difference was Real Sociedad's attack: 0.27 xG against 1.41 projected (−1.14). Atlético Madrid produced 2.05 xG against 1.41 projected (+0.64).

Goals

84' Alejandro Grimaldo (pen.) Atlético Madrid · 0.82 xG chance 0–1
90' Giuliano Simeone Atlético Madrid · 0.44 xG chance – Scored in the same minute as another goal, so the score after it is not shown.
90' Jonathan David Atlético Madrid · 0.14 xG chance – Scored in the same minute as another goal, so the score after it is not shown.

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Real Sociedad: 35%
Draw: 30%
Atlético Madrid: 35% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Real Sociedad 1.41 0.27 -1.14

Atlético Madrid 1.41 2.05 +0.64

Real Sociedad produced 1.14 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Real Sociedad Atlético Madrid

Shots: 8; 13
On target: 3; 5
Inside the box: 2; 9
xG per shot: 0.03; 0.15
Open play xG: 0.08; 0.88
Set-piece xG: 0.16; 0.23
Penalties: 0; 1

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.25 for Real Sociedad and 1.14 for Atlético Madrid.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

21 shots · 2.17 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Real Sociedad
Atlético Madrid
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Real Sociedad

1.13 xG created 1.77 xGA

D 1.40 created, 2.41 conceded against Espanyol
L 1.36 created, 1.24 conceded against Real Betis
L 0.57 created, 3.14 conceded against Real Madrid
W 1.82 created, 0.91 conceded against Espanyol
D 1.05 created, 0.43 conceded against Celta Vigo
W 0.58 created, 2.47 conceded against Elche

Atlético Madrid

1.13 xG created 1.79 xGA

W 1.97 created, 2.17 conceded against Girona FC
L 1.16 created, 2.48 conceded against Villarreal
W 0.92 created, 0.15 conceded against Málaga
D 0.78 created, 3.60 conceded against Villarreal
W 0.93 created, 0.90 conceded against Sevilla
L 1.02 created, 1.41 conceded against Athletic Club

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Real Sociedad: 0 won · 1 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

5 opportunities flagged0 won5 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Real Sociedad against Atlético Madrid before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Draw	3.70	+10.0%	Lost
Real Sociedad to win	3.10	+8.9%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	2.38	+6.9%	Lost
Atlético Madrid at most 1 goal	1.83	+6.0%	Lost
Real Sociedad to score	1.29	+0.7%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Real Sociedad	35.1%	30.5%	+4.7 pp	2.85
Draw	29.7%	25.5%	+4.2 pp	3.36
Atlético Madrid	35.1%	44.0%	−8.8 pp	2.85

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Real Sociedad to score	78.3%	73.1%	+5.2 pp	1.28
Real Sociedad not to score	21.7%	26.9%	−5.2 pp	4.62
Atlético Madrid to score	78.3%	79.2%	−0.9 pp	1.28
Atlético Madrid not to score	21.7%	20.8%	+0.9 pp	4.61
Both teams to score	63.0%	60.8%	+2.3 pp	1.59
Both teams not to score	37.0%	39.2%	−2.3 pp	2.71
Real Sociedad 2+ goals	42.2%	41.1%	+1.1 pp	2.37
Real Sociedad at most 1 goal	57.8%	58.9%	−1.1 pp	1.73
Atlético Madrid 2+ goals	42.2%	50.0%	−7.8 pp	2.37
Atlético Madrid at most 1 goal	57.8%	50.0%	+7.8 pp	1.73
Over 1.5 goals	81.3%	81.1%	+0.3 pp	1.23
Under 1.5 goals	18.7%	18.9%	−0.3 pp	5.36
Over 2.5 goals	55.0%	60.2%	−5.2 pp	1.82
Under 2.5 goals	45.0%	39.8%	+5.2 pp	2.22

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Real Sociedad sample: 20 matches
Atlético Madrid sample: 20 matches
Computed: 11 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 11 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.