Monday, 07/09/2026 at 21:30
Full timeElche 2:3 Real Sociedad
Elche were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 43%. Real Sociedad won 3–2. The biggest difference was Elche's attack: 2.47 xG against 1.41 projected (+1.06). Real Sociedad produced 0.58 xG against 1.09 projected (−0.51).
Goals
- 11' Job Ochieng Real Sociedad · 0.08 xG chance 0–1
- 32' Yangel Herrera Real Sociedad · 0.04 xG chance 0–2
- 67' Thomas Lemar Elche · 0.03 xG chance 1–2
- 74' Fernando Niño Elche · 0.83 xG chance 2–2
- 90' Luka Sučić Real Sociedad · 0.12 xG chance 2–3
The model against the result
- Elche
- 43%
- Draw
- 31%
- Real Sociedad
- 26% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Elche produced 1.06 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 20
- 13
- On target
- 10
- 6
- Inside the box
- 15
- 8
- xG per shot
- 0.12
- 0.04
- Open play xG
- 2.30
- 0.39
- Set-piece xG
- 0.08
- 0.18
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.48 for Elche and 0.58 for Real Sociedad.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
33 shots · 2.95 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Elche
- Real Sociedad
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
0.70 xG created 1.49 xGA
- L 0.40 created, 1.80 conceded against Real Betis
- W 0.66 created, 0.11 conceded against Getafe
- D 0.18 created, 0.58 conceded against Girona FC
- D 1.23 created, 0.34 conceded against Deportivo La Coruña
- L 0.70 created, 4.38 conceded against Barcelona
- L 1.03 created, 1.72 conceded against Racing de Santander
1.22 xG created 1.63 xGA
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
3 opportunities flagged0 won3 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elche to win | 3.25 | +38.3% | Lost |
| Draw | 3.60 | +12.5% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.00 | +7.0% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elche | 42.6% | 29.3% | +13.3 pp | 2.35 |
| Draw | 31.3% | 26.4% | +4.8 pp | 3.20 |
| Real Sociedad | 26.2% | 44.3% | −18.1 pp | 3.82 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 56.1% | 57.7% | −1.6 pp | 1.78 |
| Both teams not to score | 43.9% | 42.3% | +1.6 pp | 2.28 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.5% | 76.2% | −0.7 pp | 1.32 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 24.5% | 23.8% | +0.7 pp | 4.09 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.5% | 52.6% | −6.2 pp | 2.15 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53.5% | 47.4% | +6.2 pp | 1.87 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Elche sample
- 20 matches
- Real Sociedad sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 11 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 11 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.