Racing de Santander 3:2 Elche: xG & match report · La Liga

Friday, 28/08/2026 at 19:00

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Match report · La Liga

Racing de Santander Home 1.72 xG · 13 shots

Elche Away 1.03 xG · 18 shots

32 The scoreline reflected the chances

Racing de Santander were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 48%. They won 3–2. The biggest difference was Racing de Santander's attack: 1.72 xG against 1.41 projected (+0.31).

Goals

15' Yassir Zabiri Racing de Santander · 0.06 xG chance 1–0
21' Yassir Zabiri Racing de Santander · 0.28 xG chance 2–0
36' Yassir Zabiri Racing de Santander · 0.24 xG chance 3–0
78' Buba Sangaré Elche · 0.04 xG chance 3–1
79' Fernando Niño Elche · 0.12 xG chance 3–2

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Racing de Santander: 48% What happened
Draw: 32%
Elche: 21%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 2 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Racing de Santander 1.41 1.72 +0.31

Elche 0.89 1.03 +0.14

Racing de Santander produced 0.31 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Racing de Santander Elche

Shots: 13; 18
On target: 6; 7
Inside the box: 9; 9
xG per shot: 0.12; 0.06
Open play xG: 1.39; 0.55
Set-piece xG: 0.12; 0.48
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.50 for Racing de Santander.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

31 shots · 2.54 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Racing de Santander
Elche
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Racing de Santander

1.59 xG created 0.96 xGA

D 1.87 created, 0.67 conceded against Villarreal
L 1.31 created, 1.24 conceded against Getafe

Elche

0.76 xG created 1.54 xGA

D 1.39 created, 2.05 conceded against Deportivo Alavés
L 0.40 created, 1.80 conceded against Real Betis
W 0.66 created, 0.11 conceded against Getafe
D 0.18 created, 0.58 conceded against Girona FC
D 1.23 created, 0.34 conceded against Deportivo La Coruña
L 0.70 created, 4.38 conceded against Barcelona

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

7 opportunities flagged0 won7 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Racing de Santander against Elche before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Under 2.5 goals	2.20	+30.2%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	4.33	+25.3%	Lost
Elche not to score	3.25	+24.5%	Lost
Draw	3.60	+13.6%	Lost
Elche at most 1 goal	1.44	+12.9%	Lost
Both teams not to score	2.10	+4.6%	Lost
Racing de Santander at most 1 goal	1.80	+4.1%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Racing de Santander	47.8%	46.4%	+1.4 pp	2.09
Draw	31.6%	26.4%	+5.1 pp	3.17
Elche	20.7%	27.2%	−6.5 pp	4.84

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Racing de Santander to score	78.3%	79.2%	−0.9 pp	1.28
Racing de Santander not to score	21.7%	20.8%	+0.9 pp	4.61
Elche to score	61.7%	70.9%	−9.2 pp	1.62
Elche not to score	38.3%	29.1%	+9.2 pp	2.61
Both teams to score	50.2%	55.7%	−5.6 pp	1.99
Both teams not to score	49.8%	44.3%	+5.6 pp	2.01
Racing de Santander 2+ goals	42.2%	48.5%	−6.3 pp	2.37
Racing de Santander at most 1 goal	57.8%	51.5%	+6.3 pp	1.73
Elche 2+ goals	21.8%	35.5%	−13.7 pp	4.58
Elche at most 1 goal	78.2%	64.5%	+13.7 pp	1.28
Over 1.5 goals	71.1%	78.0%	−6.9 pp	1.41
Under 1.5 goals	28.9%	22.0%	+6.9 pp	3.46
Over 2.5 goals	40.8%	56.9%	−16.1 pp	2.45
Under 2.5 goals	59.2%	43.1%	+16.1 pp	1.69

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Racing de Santander sample: 2 matches
Elche sample: 20 matches
Computed: 8 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 8 hours before kick-off

Warnings

Racing de Santander has only 2 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.