Saturday, 29/08/2026 at 19:00
Full timeReal Sociedad 2:1 Espanyol
Real Sociedad were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 43%. They won 2–1. The biggest difference was Espanyol's attack: 0.91 xG against 1.24 projected (−0.33).
Goals
- 4' Ander Barrenetxea Real Sociedad · 0.10 xG chance 1–0
- 45' Roberto Fernández Espanyol · 0.21 xG chance 1–1
- 61' Orri Óskarsson Real Sociedad · 0.25 xG chance 2–1
The model against the result
- Real Sociedad
- 43% What happened
- Draw
- 29%
- Espanyol
- 27%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Espanyol produced 0.33 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 17
- 11
- On target
- 10
- 3
- Inside the box
- 13
- 6
- xG per shot
- 0.10
- 0.07
- Open play xG
- 1.43
- 0.48
- Set-piece xG
- 0.30
- 0.27
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.78 for Real Sociedad and 0.76 for Espanyol.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
28 shots · 2.48 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Real Sociedad
- Espanyol
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.20 xG created 2.09 xGA
1.20 xG created 1.39 xGA
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
6 opportunities flagged3 won3 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
- Won
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Espanyol to win | 4.50 | +23.2% | Lost |
| Espanyol 2+ goals | 3.40 | +22.1% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.75 | +9.1% | Won |
| Draw | 3.70 | +8.0% | Lost |
| Espanyol to score | 1.44 | +6.9% | Won |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.25 | +1.7% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad | 43.4% | 53.0% | −9.6 pp | 2.30 |
| Draw | 29.2% | 25.8% | +3.4 pp | 3.43 |
| Espanyol | 27.4% | 21.2% | +6.2 pp | 3.65 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad to score | 82.0% | 81.1% | +0.9 pp | 1.22 |
| Real Sociedad not to score | 18.0% | 18.9% | −0.9 pp | 5.54 |
| Espanyol to score | 74.1% | 64.5% | +9.5 pp | 1.35 |
| Espanyol not to score | 25.9% | 35.5% | −9.5 pp | 3.85 |
| Both teams to score | 62.4% | 53.3% | +9.0 pp | 1.60 |
| Both teams not to score | 37.6% | 46.7% | −9.0 pp | 2.66 |
| Real Sociedad 2+ goals | 48.3% | 51.5% | −3.2 pp | 2.07 |
| Real Sociedad at most 1 goal | 51.7% | 48.5% | +3.2 pp | 1.93 |
| Espanyol 2+ goals | 35.9% | 27.7% | +8.3 pp | 2.78 |
| Espanyol at most 1 goal | 64.1% | 72.3% | −8.3 pp | 1.56 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.4% | 76.2% | +5.2 pp | 1.23 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 18.6% | 23.8% | −5.2 pp | 5.37 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.1% | 52.6% | +2.4 pp | 1.82 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.9% | 47.4% | −2.4 pp | 2.23 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Real Sociedad sample
- 20 matches
- Espanyol sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 9 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 9 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.