xgEdge

Expected goals

Atlético Madrid expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

La Liga · after 7 matches · updated 1 Oct

Atlético Madrid's attacking and defensive expected goals in La Liga 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

Atlético Madrid xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
1.72 xG per match
#4/20
Attack (xG per match) across La Liga, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 Barcelona 4.07
#2 Real Madrid 2.64
#3 Villarreal 2.38
#4 Atlético Madrid 1.72
#5 Athletic Club 1.64
#6 Real Betis 1.52
#7 Racing de Santander 1.45
#8 Levante UD 1.33
#9 Deportivo Alavés 1.28
#10 Rayo Vallecano 1.27
#11 Espanyol 1.24
#12 Osasuna 1.24
#13 Elche 1.24
#14 Real Sociedad 1.19
#15 Celta Vigo 1.01
#16 Sevilla 0.99
#17 Deportivo La Coruña 0.97
#18 Valencia 0.87
#19 Málaga 0.84
#20 Getafe 0.69
League avg
1.48
Total
12.02 7 matches
Defence
1.02 xGA per match
#1/20
Defence (xGA per match) across La Liga, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 Atlético Madrid 1.02
#2 Real Madrid 1.09
#3 Barcelona 1.09
#4 Deportivo La Coruña 1.15
#5 Deportivo Alavés 1.19
#6 Villarreal 1.25
#7 Celta Vigo 1.26
#8 Getafe 1.27
#9 Sevilla 1.30
#10 Athletic Club 1.36
#11 Espanyol 1.36
#12 Osasuna 1.39
#13 Valencia 1.64
#14 Málaga 1.66
#15 Real Sociedad 1.68
#16 Rayo Vallecano 1.76
#17 Real Betis 1.86
#18 Elche 2.01
#19 Levante UD 2.08
#20 Racing de Santander 2.20
League avg
1.48
Total
7.11 7 matches
xG difference
+0.70 xGD per match
#4/20
xG difference (xGD per match) across La Liga, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 Barcelona +2.99
#2 Real Madrid +1.55
#3 Villarreal +1.12
#4 Atlético Madrid +0.70
#5 Athletic Club +0.28
#6 Deportivo Alavés +0.09
#7 Espanyol -0.12
#8 Osasuna -0.15
#9 Deportivo La Coruña -0.18
#10 Celta Vigo -0.26
#11 Sevilla -0.31
#12 Real Betis -0.34
#13 Rayo Vallecano -0.50
#14 Real Sociedad -0.50
#15 Getafe -0.57
#16 Levante UD -0.75
#17 Racing de Santander -0.76
#18 Elche -0.77
#19 Valencia -0.78
#20 Málaga -0.83
League avg
0.00
Total
+4.91 7 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
1.86 xPts per match
#4/20
Expected points (xPts per match) across La Liga, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 Barcelona 2.66
#2 Real Madrid 2.27
#3 Villarreal 1.92
#4 Atlético Madrid 1.86
#5 Athletic Club 1.82
#6 Deportivo Alavés 1.44
#7 Osasuna 1.36
#8 Espanyol 1.35
#9 Sevilla 1.30
#10 Celta Vigo 1.28
#11 Real Betis 1.20
#12 Real Sociedad 1.17
#13 Elche 1.14
#14 Racing de Santander 1.14
#15 Deportivo La Coruña 1.14
#16 Rayo Vallecano 1.12
#17 Levante UD 1.04
#18 Getafe 0.92
#19 Valencia 0.91
#20 Málaga 0.86
League avg
1.39
Total
13.00 vs 16 actual pts

Early-season figures: after 7 matches, per-match rates can move quickly.

What the xG says

Atlético Madrid's underlying numbers are among the best in La Liga. They rank #4 for xG difference at +0.70 per match, built on high shot volume rather than low chance quality. Their 16 goals are 3.98 above 12.02 xG, while 16 points are 3.00 above 13.00 xPts. After only 7 matches, those gaps should still be read cautiously.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG Includes 1.89 xG from penalties
16 12.02 +3.98 scored 3.98 more than xG outside normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
7 7.11 -0.11 conceded 0.11 fewer than xGA within normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
16 13.00 +3.00 3.00 points above xPts outside normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

Atlético Madrid are 3.98 goals above their xG after 7 matches. The gap was widest at +4.37, against Sevilla on Sat 29/08.

Goals
16
xG
12.02
Gap
+3.98
Wed 19/08 Sun 23/08 Sat 29/08 Sat 05/09 Sun 13/09 Wed 16/09 Sun 20/09 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +1.08 +2.30 +4.37 +3.35 +4.30 +4.33 +3.98 +1.08 +1.22 +2.07 -1.02 +0.95 +0.03 -0.35 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
Atlético Madrid: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Wed 19/08 Málaga 2 0.92 +1.08 +1.08
Sun 23/08 Villarreal 2 0.78 +1.22 +2.30
Sat 29/08 Sevilla 3 0.93 +2.07 +4.37
Sat 05/09 Athletic Club 0 1.02 -1.02 +3.35
Sun 13/09 Real Sociedad 3 2.05 +0.95 +4.30
Wed 16/09 Osasuna 4 3.97 +0.03 +4.33
Sun 20/09 Real Madrid 2 2.35 -0.35 +3.98

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

Atlético Madrid xG trend

Current form +0.66 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 4 of 7 matches. The worst was against Villarreal on Sun 23/08 (-1.31).

npxG · last 6
1.55
npxGA · last 6
0.90
-2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +0.67 Wed 19/08 -1.31 Sun 23/08 -0.02 Sat 29/08 -0.49 Sat 05/09 +0.89 Sun 13/09 +3.59 Wed 16/09 +1.28 Sun 20/09 +0.66 season avg
Atlético Madrid: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Wed 19/08 Málaga 0.82 0.15 +0.67 +0.67
Sun 23/08 Villarreal 0.71 2.02 -1.31 -0.32
Sat 29/08 Sevilla 0.93 0.95 -0.02 -0.22
Sat 05/09 Athletic Club 0.86 1.35 -0.49 -0.29
Sun 13/09 Real Sociedad 1.14 0.25 +0.89 -0.05
Wed 16/09 Osasuna 4.07 0.48 +3.59 +0.56
Sun 20/09 Real Madrid 1.60 0.32 +1.28 +0.66

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 1.45 npxG and 0.79 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
tied number 7 hardest of 20 in La Liga
+0.04 xG vs league average
Over 7 league matches
Last 5
number 7 hardest of 20 in La Liga
+0.09 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

+0.04 xG vs league average · over 7 matches · tied number 7 hardest of 20

  1. Real Madrid Home +0.60
  2. Osasuna Home −0.19
  3. Real Sociedad Away −0.31
  4. Athletic Club Away +0.40
  5. Sevilla Away −0.07
  6. Villarreal Home +0.23
  7. Málaga Home −0.38

Last 5

+0.09 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · number 7 hardest of 20

  1. Real Madrid Home +0.60
  2. Osasuna Home −0.19
  3. Real Sociedad Away −0.31
  4. Athletic Club Away +0.40
  5. Sevilla Away −0.07

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

Atlético Madrid shots and chance quality

High volume, low quality. Atlético Madrid take 16.9 shots a match (league 13.2) at 0.09 npxG a shot (league 0.10), #4 in La Liga for volume and #14 for quality. 62% of their shots come from inside the box (league 62%), and set pieces produce 16% of their npxG (league 20%).

Attack

Shot volume
16.9 shots per match
#4/20
Shot volume (shots per match) across La Liga, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Barcelona 21.4
#2 Real Madrid 18.9
#3 Real Betis 17.4
#4 Atlético Madrid 16.9
#5 Villarreal 16.0
#6 Athletic Club 15.7
#7 Espanyol 13.6
=8 Rayo Vallecano 13.4
=8 Real Sociedad 13.4
#10 Deportivo Alavés 12.4
#11 Getafe 11.7
#12 Elche 11.3
#13 Sevilla 11.0
#14 Levante UD 10.7
#15 Valencia 10.6
=16 Celta Vigo 10.3
=16 Racing de Santander 10.3
#18 Deportivo La Coruña 10.1
#19 Málaga 10.0
#20 Osasuna 9.4
League avg
13.2
Total
118 shots from 7 matches
Chance quality
0.09 npxG per shot
#14/20
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across La Liga, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 Barcelona 0.16
#2 Levante UD 0.13
#3 Real Madrid 0.13
#4 Villarreal 0.13
#5 Deportivo Alavés 0.11
#6 Racing de Santander 0.10
#7 Elche 0.10
#8 Deportivo La Coruña 0.10
#9 Osasuna 0.10
#10 Rayo Vallecano 0.09
#11 Athletic Club 0.09
#12 Espanyol 0.09
#13 Real Betis 0.09
#14 Atlético Madrid 0.09
#15 Valencia 0.08
#16 Celta Vigo 0.08
#17 Real Sociedad 0.08
#18 Sevilla 0.07
#19 Málaga 0.06
#20 Getafe 0.06
League avg
0.10
Total
10.13 npxG from 118 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
9.7 shots per match
#3/20
Shots allowed (shots per match) across La Liga, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Barcelona 7.3
#2 Athletic Club 9.5
#3 Atlético Madrid 9.7
#4 Sevilla 11.3
#5 Espanyol 12.0
#6 Deportivo Alavés 12.1
#7 Celta Vigo 12.4
=8 Osasuna 12.7
=8 Real Madrid 12.7
=10 Deportivo La Coruña 12.9
=10 Villarreal 12.9
#12 Getafe 13.3
#13 Málaga 14.9
#14 Levante UD 15.2
=15 Elche 15.3
=15 Valencia 15.3
#17 Real Betis 15.7
#18 Real Sociedad 15.9
#19 Rayo Vallecano 16.6
#20 Racing de Santander 16.7
League avg
13.2
Total
68 shots allowed from 7 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.08 npxGA per shot
#4/20
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across La Liga, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 Deportivo Alavés 0.07
#2 Getafe 0.07
#3 Real Madrid 0.08
#4 Atlético Madrid 0.08
#5 Rayo Vallecano 0.09
#6 Deportivo La Coruña 0.09
#7 Villarreal 0.09
#8 Celta Vigo 0.09
#9 Real Sociedad 0.10
#10 Málaga 0.10
#11 Athletic Club 0.10
#12 Valencia 0.10
#13 Racing de Santander 0.11
#14 Espanyol 0.11
#15 Sevilla 0.11
#16 Osasuna 0.11
#17 Real Betis 0.12
#18 Levante UD 0.12
#19 Elche 0.12
#20 Barcelona 0.15
League avg
0.10
Total
5.52 npxGA from 68 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

62% inside the box

League avg 62%

From 73 of 118 shots over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Shots allowed, location

60% allowed inside the box

League avg 62%

From 41 of 68 shots allowed over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG comes from

84% open play · 16% set pieces

League avg 20% set pieces

From 1.6 of 10.0 npxG over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG allowed comes from

91% open play · 9% set pieces

League avg 20% set pieces

From 0.5 of 5.4 npxG allowed over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

How the shot figures are made →

Atlético Madrid home and away xG

Atlético Madrid per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 4 3
xG / match 2.01 1.33
xGA / match 1.13 0.86
xGD / match +0.87 +0.47
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 1.99 1.68

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every Atlético Madrid match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

This season

Matches
7
xG / match
1.72
xGA / match
1.02
xGD / match
+0.70
Points
16 of 21
  1. Sun 20/09 Real Madrid H xG 2.35 P xGA 0.30 xGD +2.05
  2. Wed 16/09 Osasuna H Best underlying xG 3.97 xGA 0.48 xGD +3.49
  3. Sun 13/09 Real Sociedad A xG 2.05 P xGA 0.27 xGD +1.78
  4. Sat 05/09 Athletic Club A xG 1.02 xGA 1.41 xGD -0.39
  5. Sat 29/08 Sevilla A xG 0.93 xGA 0.90 xGD +0.03
  6. Sun 23/08 Villarreal H Weakest underlying xG 0.78 xGA 3.60 P xGD -2.82
  7. Wed 19/08 Málaga H xG 0.92 xGA 0.15 xGD +0.77

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.97. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

Atlético Madrid in La Liga

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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