La Liga expected points table 2026/2027
Every La Liga club ranked on the points its match-by-match chances were worth, with the position the real table gives it and the distance between the two.
Barcelona lead on expected points with 18.59 over 7 matches with xG. That is 2.71 clear of Real Madrid. Real Betis sit 8 places higher in the table than their chances place them: 3 against 11 on expected points. Espanyol sit 7 places lower in the table than their chances place them: 15 against 8 on expected points.
Table against xPts
- Higher in the table than on xPts
- Lower in the table than on xPts
- Fewer than 3 places apart
Ranked on expected points
| # | Team | P | Pts | xPts | Pts vs xPts | Actual | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona BAR | 7 | 21 | 18.59 | +2.41 | 1 | Same place as on expected points |
| 2 | Real Madrid RMA | 7 | 15 | 15.87 | −0.87 | 4 | 2 places below its expected-points rank |
| 3 | Villarreal VIL | 7 | 8 | 13.47 | −5.47 | 9 | 6 places below its expected-points rank |
| 4 | Atlético Madrid ATM | 7 | 16 | 13.00 | +3.00 | 2 | 2 places above its expected-points rank |
| 5 | Athletic Club ATH | 6 | 8 | 10.92 | −2.92 | 10 | 5 places below its expected-points rank |
| 6 | Deportivo Alavés ALA | 7 | 11 | 10.06 | +0.94 | 6 | Same place as on expected points |
| 7 | Osasuna OSA | 7 | 8 | 9.50 | −1.50 | 13 | 6 places below its expected-points rank |
| 8 | Espanyol ESP | 7 | 7 | 9.45 | −2.45 | 15 | 7 places below its expected-points rank |
| 9 | Sevilla SEV | 7 | 13 | 9.13 | +3.87 | 5 | 4 places above its expected-points rank |
| 10 | Celta Vigo CEL | 7 | 7 | 8.99 | −1.99 | 14 | 4 places below its expected-points rank |
| 11 | Real Betis BET | 7 | 16 | 8.41 | +7.59 | 3 | 8 places above its expected-points rank |
| 12 | Real Sociedad RSO | 7 | 10 | 8.16 | +1.84 | 8 | 4 places above its expected-points rank |
| 13 | Elche ELC | 7 | 5 | 8.00 | −3.00 | 18 | 5 places below its expected-points rank |
| 14 | Racing de Santander RAC | 7 | 7 | 7.97 | −0.97 | 16 | 2 places below its expected-points rank |
| 14 | Deportivo La Coruña DEP | 7 | 10 | 7.97 | +2.03 | 7 | 7 places above its expected-points rank |
| 16 | Rayo Vallecano RAY | 7 | 8 | 7.87 | +0.13 | 12 | 4 places above its expected-points rank |
| 17 | Getafe GET | 7 | 8 | 6.41 | +1.59 | 11 | 6 places above its expected-points rank |
| 18 | Valencia VAL | 7 | 4 | 6.40 | −2.40 | 19 | 1 place below its expected-points rank |
| 19 | Levante UD LEV | 6 | 5 | 6.25 | −1.25 | 17 | 2 places above its expected-points rank |
| 20 | Málaga MAL | 7 | 3 | 5.99 | −2.99 | 20 | Same place as on expected points |
- Higher in the table than on xPts
- Lower in the table than on xPts
A gap can come from finishing, goalkeeping, game state or chance. xG and xPts are model estimates, not the result a team deserved.
About these figures What each column measures, and the thresholds this ranking is under. Show Hide
- P
- — Matches played
- Pts
- — Points
- xPts
- — Expected points: the points a team's match-by-match xG would be worth on average.
- Pts vs xPts
- — Actual points minus expected points based on match xG.
- Actual
- — Position in the real table
- Diff
- — Places between this ranking and the real table. Up is a club higher in the real table than its expected points place it.
Every club with expected goals behind it is ranked here: these are season totals rather than rates, so a club is not held back by having played fewer matches. The ranking opens once the median club has played 3.