Saturday, 05/09/2026 at 16:15
Full timeAthletic Club 3:0 Atlético Madrid
Athletic Club were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 52%. They won 3–0. Both teams produced xG close to their pre-match projections.
Goals
- 46' Nico Williams Athletic Club · 0.36 xG chance 1–0
- 48' Robert Navarro Athletic Club · 0.14 xG chance 2–0
- 90' Oihan Sancet Athletic Club · 0.22 xG chance 3–0
The model against the result
- Athletic Club
- 52% What happened
- Draw
- 29%
- Atlético Madrid
- 20%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 11
- 15
- On target
- 4
- 5
- Inside the box
- 8
- 10
- xG per shot
- 0.12
- 0.05
- Open play xG
- 1.24
- 0.62
- Set-piece xG
- 0.10
- 0.20
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.35 for Athletic Club and 0.86 for Atlético Madrid.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
26 shots · 2.16 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Athletic Club
- Atlético Madrid
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.42 xG created 1.51 xGA
1.22 xG created 1.93 xGA
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
5 opportunities flagged5 won0 lost
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club to win | 3.00 | +54.6% | Won |
| Athletic Club 2+ goals | 2.63 | +31.4% | Won |
| Atlético Madrid not to score | 3.75 | +29.5% | Won |
| Atlético Madrid at most 1 goal | 1.62 | +20.6% | Won |
| Athletic Club to score | 1.33 | +10.4% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club | 51.5% | 31.4% | +20.2 pp | 1.94 |
| Draw | 28.9% | 28.5% | +0.3 pp | 3.47 |
| Atlético Madrid | 19.6% | 40.1% | −20.5 pp | 5.10 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club to score | 82.9% | 70.9% | +11.9 pp | 1.21 |
| Athletic Club not to score | 17.1% | 29.1% | −11.9 pp | 5.83 |
| Atlético Madrid to score | 65.5% | 75.0% | −9.5 pp | 1.53 |
| Atlético Madrid not to score | 34.5% | 25.0% | +9.5 pp | 2.90 |
| Both teams to score | 56.0% | 54.7% | +1.3 pp | 1.79 |
| Both teams not to score | 44.0% | 45.3% | −1.3 pp | 2.27 |
| Athletic Club 2+ goals | 50.1% | 35.5% | +14.6 pp | 2.00 |
| Athletic Club at most 1 goal | 49.9% | 64.5% | −14.6 pp | 2.00 |
| Atlético Madrid 2+ goals | 25.3% | 42.3% | −17.0 pp | 3.95 |
| Atlético Madrid at most 1 goal | 74.7% | 57.7% | +17.0 pp | 1.34 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.6% | 74.5% | +3.1 pp | 1.29 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 22.4% | 25.5% | −3.1 pp | 4.46 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.5% | 50.0% | −0.5 pp | 2.02 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.5% | 50.0% | +0.5 pp | 1.98 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Athletic Club sample
- 20 matches
- Atlético Madrid sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 hour before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 hour before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.