Benfica 2:1 Estoril Praia: xG & match report · Liga Portugal

Monday, 31/08/2026 at 21:15

Full time

Match report · Liga Portugal

Benfica Home 2.03 xG · 25 shots

Estoril Praia Away 0.36 xG · 4 shots

21 The scoreline reflected the chances

Benfica were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 72%. They won 2–1. The biggest difference was Estoril Praia's attack: 0.36 xG against 0.81 projected (−0.45). Benfica produced 2.03 xG against 2.36 projected (−0.33).

Goals

40' Vangelis Pavlidis Benfica · 0.11 xG chance 1–0
51' Clément Lenglet Benfica · 0.02 xG chance 2–0
82' Yanis Begraoui Estoril Praia · 0.19 xG chance 2–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Benfica: 72% What happened
Draw: 19%
Estoril Praia: 9%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Benfica 2.36 2.03 -0.33

Estoril Praia 0.81 0.36 -0.45

Estoril Praia produced 0.45 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Benfica Estoril Praia

Shots: 25; 4
On target: 8; 2
Inside the box: 15; 3
xG per shot: 0.08; 0.09
Open play xG: 1.16; 0.30
Set-piece xG: 0.92; 0.05
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.03 for Benfica and 0.36 for Estoril Praia.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

29 shots · 2.43 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Benfica
Estoril Praia
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Benfica

2.86 xG created 0.90 xGA

W 2.02 created, 0.87 conceded against Moreirense
D 1.55 created, 1.53 conceded against Famalicão
D 3.19 created, 0.21 conceded against Sporting Braga
W 4.22 created, 1.52 conceded against Estoril Praia
D 3.11 created, 1.18 conceded against Académico Viseu FC
W 3.04 created, 0.12 conceded against Casa Pia

Estoril Praia

1.06 xG created 1.69 xGA

D 0.89 created, 0.41 conceded against Sporting Braga
D 0.90 created, 1.27 conceded against FC Alverca
L 1.52 created, 4.22 conceded against Benfica
D 1.06 created, 1.47 conceded against Famalicão
L 0.82 created, 2.08 conceded against CD Nacional
L 1.16 created, 0.70 conceded against Rio Ave

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Benfica: 2 won · 0 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

9 opportunities flagged2 won7 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Won
Won
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Benfica against Estoril Praia before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Draw	9.00	+72.2%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	3.50	+27.7%	Lost
Benfica at most 1 goal	4.33	+27.1%	Lost
Benfica not to score	15.00	+16.8%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	8.00	+12.4%	Lost
Estoril Praia to win	13.00	+11.0%	Lost
Both teams to score	2.00	+10.8%	Won
Estoril Praia to score	1.83	+7.9%	Won
Estoril Praia 2+ goals	5.50	+3.9%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Benfica	72.3%	82.3%	−10.0 pp	1.38
Draw	19.1%	10.5%	+8.7 pp	5.23
Estoril Praia	8.5%	7.2%	+1.3 pp	11.71

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Benfica to score	92.2%	93.6%	−1.4 pp	1.08
Benfica not to score	7.8%	6.4%	+1.4 pp	12.84
Estoril Praia to score	58.9%	50.0%	+8.9 pp	1.70
Estoril Praia not to score	41.1%	50.0%	−8.9 pp	2.43
Both teams to score	55.4%	46.7%	+8.8 pp	1.80
Both teams not to score	44.6%	53.3%	−8.8 pp	2.24
Benfica 2+ goals	70.7%	78.3%	−7.6 pp	1.42
Benfica at most 1 goal	29.3%	21.7%	+7.6 pp	3.41
Estoril Praia 2+ goals	18.9%	17.2%	+1.7 pp	5.29
Estoril Praia at most 1 goal	81.1%	82.8%	−1.7 pp	1.23
Over 1.5 goals	85.9%	88.1%	−2.1 pp	1.16
Under 1.5 goals	14.1%	11.9%	+2.1 pp	7.12
Over 2.5 goals	63.5%	72.9%	−9.4 pp	1.57
Under 2.5 goals	36.5%	27.1%	+9.4 pp	2.74

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Benfica sample: 20 matches
Estoril Praia sample: 20 matches
Computed: 11 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 11 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.