Famalicão 0:0 Gil Vicente: xG & match report · Liga Portugal

Sunday, 30/08/2026 at 21:30

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Match report · Liga Portugal

Famalicão Home 0.23 xG · 7 shots

Gil Vicente Away 0.28 xG · 7 shots

00 The chances were evenly matched

Famalicão were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 43%. It finished 0–0. The biggest difference was Famalicão's attack: 0.23 xG against 1.19 projected (−0.96). Gil Vicente produced 0.28 xG against 0.83 projected (−0.55).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Famalicão: 43%
Draw: 34% What happened
Gil Vicente: 23%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Famalicão 1.19 0.23 -0.96

Gil Vicente 0.83 0.28 -0.55

Famalicão produced 0.96 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Famalicão Gil Vicente

Shots: 7; 7
On target: 1; 1
Inside the box: 2; 3
xG per shot: 0.03; 0.04
Open play xG: 0.13; 0.24
Set-piece xG: 0.10; 0.03
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.28 for Gil Vicente.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

14 shots · 0.50 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Famalicão
Gil Vicente
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Famalicão

1.20 xG created 1.05 xGA

D 1.53 created, 1.55 conceded against Benfica
D 2.00 created, 0.25 conceded against CF Estrela Amadora
W 0.56 created, 0.46 conceded against FC Alverca
D 1.47 created, 1.06 conceded against Estoril Praia
L 0.59 created, 1.61 conceded against Marítimo
L 1.05 created, 1.36 conceded against Santa Clara

Gil Vicente

1.21 xG created 1.14 xGA

W 1.71 created, 1.25 conceded against Casa Pia
D 0.66 created, 1.58 conceded against Rio Ave
L 0.81 created, 1.39 conceded against FC Arouca
L 0.68 created, 1.65 conceded against Sporting
W 1.66 created, 0.19 conceded against Rio Ave
W 1.74 created, 0.76 conceded against Casa Pia

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Famalicão: 0 won · 1 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

3 opportunities flagged3 won0 lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Famalicão against Gil Vicente before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Draw	3.20	+13.6%	Won
Under 1.5 goals	3.00	+7.7%	Won
Under 2.5 goals	1.62	+7.3%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Famalicão	42.8%	47.1%	−4.3 pp	2.34
Draw	34.4%	29.4%	+5.0 pp	2.91
Gil Vicente	22.8%	23.5%	−0.7 pp	4.39

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	44.8%	48.0%	−3.2 pp	2.23
Both teams not to score	55.2%	52.0%	+3.2 pp	1.81
Over 1.5 goals	64.1%	68.7%	−4.6 pp	1.56
Under 1.5 goals	35.9%	31.3%	+4.6 pp	2.79
Over 2.5 goals	32.9%	41.8%	−8.9 pp	3.04
Under 2.5 goals	67.1%	58.2%	+8.9 pp	1.49

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Famalicão sample: 20 matches
Gil Vicente sample: 20 matches
Computed: 1 day before kick-off
Prices taken: 11 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.