Saturday, 29/08/2026 at 16:30
Full timeFC Arouca 2:1 Marítimo
FC Arouca were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 37%. They won 2–1. The biggest difference was Marítimo's attack: 0.67 xG against 1.19 projected (−0.52). FC Arouca produced 1.65 xG against 1.29 projected (+0.36).
Goals
- 27' Martín Tejón Marítimo · 0.04 xG chance 0–1
- 44' Espen Van Ee FC Arouca · 0.10 xG chance 1–1
- 55' Ivan Barbero FC Arouca · 0.73 xG chance 2–1
The model against the result
- FC Arouca
- 37% What happened
- Draw
- 32%
- Marítimo
- 32%
Data coverage One of these teams has only 3 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Projected vs produced
Marítimo produced 0.52 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 17
- 12
- On target
- 7
- 4
- Inside the box
- 10
- 8
- xG per shot
- 0.10
- 0.06
- Open play xG
- 1.65
- 0.52
- Set-piece xG
- 0.04
- 0.15
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.65 for FC Arouca.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
29 shots · 2.36 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- FC Arouca
- Marítimo
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.16 xG created 1.49 xGA
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Pre-match model & market record
7 opportunities flagged3 won4 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marítimo 2+ goals | 3.25 | +10.3% | Lost |
| Marítimo to win | 3.40 | +7.7% | Lost |
| Marítimo to score | 1.44 | +4.6% | Won |
| Draw | 3.25 | +3.3% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.80 | +1.3% | Won |
| FC Arouca at most 1 goal | 1.62 | +0.7% | Lost |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.33 | +0.1% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Arouca | 36.5% | 43.6% | −7.1 pp | 2.74 |
| Draw | 31.8% | 28.8% | +3.0 pp | 3.15 |
| Marítimo | 31.7% | 27.6% | +4.1 pp | 3.16 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Arouca to score | 75.1% | 75.0% | +0.1 pp | 1.33 |
| FC Arouca not to score | 24.9% | 25.0% | −0.1 pp | 4.01 |
| Marítimo to score | 72.5% | 64.5% | +7.9 pp | 1.38 |
| Marítimo not to score | 27.5% | 35.5% | −7.9 pp | 3.63 |
| Both teams to score | 56.3% | 52.0% | +4.3 pp | 1.78 |
| Both teams not to score | 43.7% | 48.0% | −4.3 pp | 2.29 |
| FC Arouca 2+ goals | 37.6% | 42.3% | −4.7 pp | 2.66 |
| FC Arouca at most 1 goal | 62.4% | 57.7% | +4.7 pp | 1.60 |
| Marítimo 2+ goals | 33.9% | 29.1% | +4.8 pp | 2.95 |
| Marítimo at most 1 goal | 66.1% | 70.9% | −4.8 pp | 1.51 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.1% | 70.9% | +4.2 pp | 1.33 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 24.9% | 29.1% | −4.2 pp | 4.01 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.0% | 46.1% | −0.0 pp | 2.17 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 54.0% | 53.9% | +0.0 pp | 1.85 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
· 1 warningShow Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC Arouca sample
- 20 matches
- Marítimo sample
- 3 matches
- Computed
- 7 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 7 hours before kick-off
Warnings
- Marítimo has only 3 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.