FC Porto 2:0 FC Arouca: xG & match report · Liga Portugal

Sunday, 23/08/2026 at 21:30

Full time

Match report · Liga Portugal

FC Porto Home 3.00 xG · 23 shots

FC Arouca Away 0.54 xG · 5 shots

20 The scoreline reflected the chances

FC Porto were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 52%. They won 2–0. The biggest difference was FC Porto's attack: 3.00 xG against 1.60 projected (+1.40). FC Arouca produced 0.54 xG against 0.93 projected (−0.39).

Goals

67' Gabri Veiga FC Porto · 0.20 xG chance 1–0
86' Borja Sainz FC Porto · 0.42 xG chance 2–0

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

FC Porto: 52% What happened
Draw: 29%
FC Arouca: 19%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

FC Porto 1.60 3.00 +1.40

FC Arouca 0.93 0.54 -0.39

FC Porto produced 1.40 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

FC Porto FC Arouca

Shots: 23; 5
On target: 10; 1
Inside the box: 17; 2
xG per shot: 0.13; 0.11
Open play xG: 2.85; 0.56
Set-piece xG: 0.19; 0.00
Penalties: —; —

FC Porto's shots add up to 3.04 xG and FC Arouca's to 0.56; the published figures are 3.00 and 0.54.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

28 shots · 3.60 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

FC Porto
FC Arouca
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

FC Porto

1.83 xG created 0.99 xGA

W 1.88 created, 1.68 conceded against CF Estrela Amadora
W 0.62 created, 0.79 conceded against FC Alverca
L 3.06 created, 0.75 conceded against AVS - Futebol SAD
W 0.85 created, 0.47 conceded against Santa Clara
W 2.59 created, 1.66 conceded against FC Alverca
W 1.97 created, 0.58 conceded against Rio Ave

FC Arouca

1.21 xG created 1.17 xGA

L 0.88 created, 1.06 conceded against FC Alverca
D 0.78 created, 1.86 conceded against Santa Clara
W 1.39 created, 0.81 conceded against Gil Vicente
W 1.60 created, 0.57 conceded against Tondela
W 0.49 created, 2.22 conceded against Vitória SC
W 2.14 created, 0.49 conceded against Moreirense

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

FC Porto: 2 won · 0 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

9 opportunities flagged1 won8 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Won
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on FC Porto against FC Arouca before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
FC Arouca to win	12.00	+128.3%	Lost
FC Porto not to score	10.00	+78.5%	Lost
Draw	5.50	+60.5%	Lost
FC Porto at most 1 goal	3.00	+53.4%	Lost
FC Arouca 2+ goals	6.50	+53.2%	Lost
FC Arouca to score	2.00	+27.3%	Lost
Both teams to score	2.20	+18.8%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	2.25	+18.5%	Won
Under 1.5 goals	4.50	+8.1%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FC Porto	51.8%	75.1%	−23.3 pp	1.93
Draw	29.2%	17.1%	+12.1 pp	3.43
FC Arouca	19.0%	7.8%	+11.2 pp	5.26

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FC Porto to score	82.2%	90.4%	−8.2 pp	1.22
FC Porto not to score	17.8%	9.6%	+8.2 pp	5.60
FC Arouca to score	63.6%	46.3%	+17.3 pp	1.57
FC Arouca not to score	36.4%	53.7%	−17.3 pp	2.75
Both teams to score	54.0%	42.3%	+11.7 pp	1.85
Both teams not to score	46.0%	57.7%	−11.7 pp	2.17
FC Porto 2+ goals	48.9%	68.7%	−19.9 pp	2.05
FC Porto at most 1 goal	51.1%	31.3%	+19.9 pp	1.96
FC Arouca 2+ goals	23.6%	14.6%	+9.0 pp	4.24
FC Arouca at most 1 goal	76.4%	85.4%	−9.0 pp	1.31
Over 1.5 goals	76.0%	79.2%	−3.2 pp	1.32
Under 1.5 goals	24.0%	20.8%	+3.2 pp	4.16
Over 2.5 goals	47.4%	58.2%	−10.9 pp	2.11
Under 2.5 goals	52.6%	41.8%	+10.9 pp	1.90

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
FC Porto sample: 20 matches
FC Arouca sample: 20 matches
Computed: 7 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 2 days before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.