xgEdge

Expected goals

FC Porto expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

Liga Portugal · after 7 matches · updated 1 Oct

FC Porto's attacking and defensive expected goals in Liga Portugal 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

FC Porto xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
2.26 xG per match
#2/18
Attack (xG per match) across Liga Portugal, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 Benfica 2.32
#2 FC Porto 2.26
#3 Sporting 2.01
#4 Vitória SC 1.77
#5 FC Alverca 1.40
#6 Santa Clara 1.35
#7 Gil Vicente 1.31
#8 Académico Viseu FC 1.30
#9 Sporting Braga 1.25
#10 FC Arouca 1.24
#11 CF Estrela Amadora 1.23
#12 CD Nacional 1.15
#13 Famalicão 0.99
#14 Marítimo 0.94
#15 Casa Pia 0.89
#16 Estoril Praia 0.85
#17 Moreirense 0.68
#18 Rio Ave 0.54
League avg
1.31
Total
15.83 7 matches
Defence
0.98 xGA per match
#7/18
Defence (xGA per match) across Liga Portugal, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 Sporting Braga 0.65
#2 Benfica 0.65
#3 Santa Clara 0.69
#4 Vitória SC 0.77
#5 Sporting 0.79
#6 Gil Vicente 0.88
#7 FC Porto 0.98
#8 Famalicão 1.25
#9 Marítimo 1.32
#10 FC Arouca 1.38
#11 Estoril Praia 1.62
#12 CF Estrela Amadora 1.63
#13 Académico Viseu FC 1.71
#14 Moreirense 1.73
#15 FC Alverca 1.74
#16 Casa Pia 1.77
#17 CD Nacional 1.87
#18 Rio Ave 1.92
League avg
1.31
Total
6.86 7 matches
xG difference
+1.28 xGD per match
#2/18
xG difference (xGD per match) across Liga Portugal, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 Benfica +1.66
#2 FC Porto +1.28
#3 Sporting +1.22
#4 Vitória SC +0.99
#5 Santa Clara +0.67
#6 Sporting Braga +0.60
#7 Gil Vicente +0.43
#8 FC Arouca -0.14
#9 Famalicão -0.26
#10 FC Alverca -0.34
#11 Marítimo -0.38
#12 CF Estrela Amadora -0.40
#13 Académico Viseu FC -0.41
#14 CD Nacional -0.72
#15 Estoril Praia -0.76
#16 Casa Pia -0.87
#17 Moreirense -1.06
#18 Rio Ave -1.38
League avg
0.00
Total
+8.97 7 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
2.22 xPts per match
#2/18
Expected points (xPts per match) across Liga Portugal, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 Benfica 2.40
#2 FC Porto 2.22
#3 Sporting 2.17
#4 Vitória SC 1.96
#5 Santa Clara 1.93
#6 Sporting Braga 1.83
#7 Gil Vicente 1.76
#8 FC Arouca 1.37
#9 Famalicão 1.18
#10 CF Estrela Amadora 1.13
#11 Académico Viseu FC 1.08
#12 Marítimo 1.07
#13 CD Nacional 1.06
#14 FC Alverca 1.06
#15 Casa Pia 0.91
#16 Estoril Praia 0.82
#17 Moreirense 0.68
#18 Rio Ave 0.46
League avg
1.39
Total
15.57 vs 21 actual pts

Early-season figures: after 7 matches, per-match rates can move quickly.

What the xG says

FC Porto's underlying numbers are among the best in Liga Portugal. They rank #2 for xG difference at +1.28 per match, driven by both elite shot volume and elite chance quality. Their 18 goals are 2.17 above 15.83 xG, while 21 points are 5.43 above 15.57 xPts. After only 7 matches, those gaps should still be read cautiously.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG Includes 2.42 xG from penalties
18 15.83 +2.17 scored 2.17 more than xG within normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
3 6.86 -3.86 conceded 3.86 fewer than xGA outside normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
21 15.57 +5.43 5.43 points above xPts outside normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

FC Porto are 2.17 goals above their xG after 7 matches.

Goals
18
xG
15.83
Gap
+2.17
Sun 09/08 Sat 15/08 Sun 23/08 Sat 29/08 Fri 04/09 Sat 12/09 Sun 20/09 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 -0.59 -0.56 -1.56 -0.03 -0.93 +0.47 +2.17 -0.59 +0.03 -1.00 +1.53 -0.90 +1.40 +1.70 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
FC Porto: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Sun 09/08 FC Alverca 2 2.59 -0.59 -0.59
Sat 15/08 Rio Ave 2 1.97 +0.03 -0.56
Sun 23/08 FC Arouca 2 3.00 -1.00 -1.56
Sat 29/08 Académico Viseu FC 3 1.47 +1.53 -0.03
Fri 04/09 Moreirense 2 2.90 -0.90 -0.93
Sat 12/09 Casa Pia 4 2.60 +1.40 +0.47
Sun 20/09 Benfica 3 1.30 +1.70 +2.17

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

FC Porto xG trend

Current form +1.32 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 6 of 7 matches. The only negative was against FC Alverca on Sun 09/08 (-0.77).

npxG · last 6
2.07
npxGA · last 6
0.75
-1 0 +1 +2 +3 -0.77 Sun 09/08 +1.39 Sat 15/08 +2.41 Sun 23/08 +0.67 Sat 29/08 +2.02 Fri 04/09 +0.95 Sat 12/09 +0.47 Sun 20/09 +1.02 season avg
FC Porto: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Sun 09/08 FC Alverca 1.01 1.78 -0.77 -0.77
Sat 15/08 Rio Ave 1.97 0.58 +1.39 +0.31
Sun 23/08 FC Arouca 3.00 0.59 +2.41 +1.01
Sat 29/08 Académico Viseu FC 1.47 0.80 +0.67 +0.93
Fri 04/09 Moreirense 2.90 0.88 +2.02 +1.14
Sat 12/09 Casa Pia 1.75 0.80 +0.95 +1.11
Sun 20/09 Benfica 1.31 0.84 +0.47 +1.02

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 1.92 npxG and 0.90 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
tied number 16 hardest of 18 in Liga Portugal
−0.13 xG vs league average
Over 7 league matches
Last 5
number 13 hardest of 18 in Liga Portugal
−0.05 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

−0.13 xG vs league average · over 7 matches · tied number 16 hardest of 18

  1. Benfica Home +0.79
  2. Casa Pia Away −0.35
  3. Moreirense Home −0.54
  4. Académico Viseu FC Away −0.07
  5. FC Arouca Home −0.08
  6. Rio Ave Away −0.55
  7. FC Alverca Home −0.10

Last 5

−0.05 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · number 13 hardest of 18

  1. Benfica Home +0.79
  2. Casa Pia Away −0.35
  3. Moreirense Home −0.54
  4. Académico Viseu FC Away −0.07
  5. FC Arouca Home −0.08

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

FC Porto shots and chance quality

High volume, high quality. FC Porto take 16.0 shots a match (league 12.2) at 0.12 npxG a shot (league 0.10), #3 in Liga Portugal for volume and #3 for quality. 68% of their shots come from inside the box (league 63%), and set pieces produce 29% of their npxG (league 22%).

Attack

Shot volume
16.0 shots per match
#3/18
Shot volume (shots per match) across Liga Portugal, best first
Rank Club shots per match
=1 Benfica 19.1
=1 Vitória SC 19.1
#3 FC Porto 16.0
#4 Gil Vicente 14.0
#5 Sporting 13.4
=6 CF Estrela Amadora 13.1
=6 Santa Clara 13.1
#8 Estoril Praia 12.7
#9 Sporting Braga 12.5
#10 FC Alverca 11.9
#11 FC Arouca 10.9
#12 CD Nacional 10.7
#13 Marítimo 10.4
#14 Casa Pia 10.3
#15 Famalicão 9.6
#16 Académico Viseu FC 9.3
#17 Moreirense 7.3
#18 Rio Ave 7.1
League avg
12.2
Total
112 shots from 7 matches
Chance quality
0.12 npxG per shot
#3/18
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Liga Portugal, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 Académico Viseu FC 0.15
#2 Sporting 0.14
#3 FC Porto 0.12
#4 Benfica 0.11
#5 FC Alverca 0.11
#6 FC Arouca 0.11
#7 CD Nacional 0.10
#8 Sporting Braga 0.10
#9 Santa Clara 0.10
#10 Famalicão 0.09
#11 CF Estrela Amadora 0.09
#12 Vitória SC 0.09
#13 Marítimo 0.08
#14 Moreirense 0.08
#15 Gil Vicente 0.07
#16 Casa Pia 0.07
#17 Estoril Praia 0.06
#18 Rio Ave 0.06
League avg
0.10
Total
13.41 npxG from 112 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
10.7 shots per match
#7/18
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Liga Portugal, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Vitória SC 7.1
#2 Benfica 7.6
#3 Santa Clara 8.1
#4 Sporting 8.6
#5 Sporting Braga 8.7
#6 Gil Vicente 9.8
#7 FC Porto 10.7
#8 CF Estrela Amadora 11.6
#9 Famalicão 12.0
#10 FC Alverca 12.1
#11 Marítimo 13.4
#12 Estoril Praia 13.9
#13 FC Arouca 14.9
#14 CD Nacional 15.1
=15 Casa Pia 15.7
=15 Moreirense 15.7
#17 Rio Ave 16.9
#18 Académico Viseu FC 17.6
League avg
12.2
Total
75 shots allowed from 7 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.08 npxGA per shot
#5/18
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Liga Portugal, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 Sporting Braga 0.06
#2 Santa Clara 0.07
#3 Gil Vicente 0.08
#4 Sporting 0.08
#5 FC Porto 0.08
#6 Académico Viseu FC 0.08
#7 Benfica 0.09
#8 Marítimo 0.09
#9 FC Arouca 0.09
#10 Famalicão 0.10
#11 Casa Pia 0.10
#12 Moreirense 0.10
#13 CD Nacional 0.10
#14 Estoril Praia 0.11
#15 Rio Ave 0.11
#16 Vitória SC 0.11
#17 CF Estrela Amadora 0.12
#18 FC Alverca 0.13
League avg
0.10
Total
6.27 npxGA from 75 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

68% inside the box

League avg 63%

From 76 of 112 shots over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Shots allowed, location

51% allowed inside the box

League avg 63%

From 38 of 75 shots allowed over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG comes from

71% open play · 29% set pieces

League avg 22% set pieces

From 3.9 of 13.6 npxG over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG allowed comes from

62% open play · 38% set pieces

League avg 22% set pieces

From 2.3 of 6.2 npxG allowed over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

How the shot figures are made →

FC Porto home and away xG

FC Porto per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 4 3
xG / match 2.45 2.01
xGA / match 0.97 0.99
xGD / match +1.47 +1.02
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 2.29 2.14

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every FC Porto match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

This season

Matches
7
xG / match
2.26
xGA / match
0.98
xGD / match
+1.28
Points
21 of 21
  1. Sun 20/09 Benfica H Weakest underlying xG 1.30 xGA 0.84 xGD +0.46
  2. Sat 12/09 Casa Pia A xG 2.60 P xGA 1.59 P xGD +1.01
  3. Fri 04/09 Moreirense H xG 2.90 xGA 0.85 xGD +2.05
  4. Sat 29/08 Académico Viseu FC A xG 1.47 xGA 0.80 xGD +0.67
  5. Sun 23/08 FC Arouca H Best underlying xG 3.00 xGA 0.54 xGD +2.46
  6. Sat 15/08 Rio Ave A xG 1.97 xGA 0.58 xGD +1.39
  7. Sun 09/08 FC Alverca H xG 2.59 P xGA 1.66 xGD +0.93

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.00. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

FC Porto in Liga Portugal

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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