Académico Viseu FC 0:3 FC Porto: xG & match report · Liga Portugal

Saturday, 29/08/2026 at 19:00

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Match report · Liga Portugal

Académico Viseu FC Home 0.80 xG · 9 shots

FC Porto Away 1.47 xG · 5 shots

03 The scoreline reflected the chances

FC Porto were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 37%. They won 3–0. The biggest difference was Académico Viseu FC's attack: 0.80 xG against 1.17 projected (−0.37).

Goals

5' André Silva FC Porto · 0.92 xG chance 0–1
20' Gabri Veiga FC Porto · 0.05 xG chance 0–2
38' William Gomes FC Porto · 0.43 xG chance 0–3

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Académico Viseu FC: 31%
Draw: 32%
FC Porto: 37% What happened

Data coverage One of these teams has only 3 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Académico Viseu FC 1.17 0.80 -0.37

FC Porto 1.27 1.47 +0.20

Académico Viseu FC produced 0.37 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Académico Viseu FC FC Porto

Shots: 9; 5
On target: 1; 4
Inside the box: 4; 4
xG per shot: 0.08; 0.30
Open play xG: 0.41; 1.52
Set-piece xG: 0.35; 0.00
Penalties: —; —

Académico Viseu FC's shots add up to 0.76 xG and FC Porto's to 1.52; the published figures are 0.80 and 1.47.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

14 shots · 2.28 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Académico Viseu FC
FC Porto
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Académico Viseu FC

1.20 xG created 1.89 xGA

D 1.18 created, 3.11 conceded against Benfica
L 0.58 created, 1.27 conceded against Santa Clara
D 1.84 created, 1.28 conceded against Marítimo

FC Porto

2.02 xG created 0.80 xGA

W 0.62 created, 0.79 conceded against FC Alverca
L 3.06 created, 0.75 conceded against AVS - Futebol SAD
W 0.85 created, 0.47 conceded against Santa Clara
W 2.59 created, 1.66 conceded against FC Alverca
W 1.97 created, 0.58 conceded against Rio Ave
W 3.00 created, 0.54 conceded against FC Arouca

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

9 opportunities flagged0 won9 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Académico Viseu FC against FC Porto before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Académico Viseu FC to win	10.00	+212.6%	Lost
FC Porto not to score	8.00	+99.8%	Lost
Académico Viseu FC 2+ goals	6.00	+98.9%	Lost
FC Porto at most 1 goal	2.63	+64.9%	Lost
Draw	5.00	+60.5%	Lost
Académico Viseu FC to score	1.91	+37.1%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	2.15	+17.9%	Lost
Both teams to score	2.10	+17.1%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	4.33	+10.3%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Académico Viseu FC	31.3%	9.4%	+21.9 pp	3.20
Draw	32.1%	18.7%	+13.4 pp	3.12
FC Porto	36.7%	71.9%	−35.3 pp	2.73

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Académico Viseu FC to score	71.8%	48.5%	+23.3 pp	1.39
Académico Viseu FC not to score	28.2%	51.5%	−23.3 pp	3.55
FC Porto to score	75.0%	88.1%	−13.1 pp	1.33
FC Porto not to score	25.0%	11.9%	+13.1 pp	4.00
Both teams to score	55.8%	44.3%	+11.5 pp	1.79
Both teams not to score	44.2%	55.7%	−11.5 pp	2.26
Académico Viseu FC 2+ goals	33.1%	15.8%	+17.4 pp	3.02
Académico Viseu FC at most 1 goal	66.9%	84.2%	−17.4 pp	1.50
FC Porto 2+ goals	37.2%	64.5%	−27.3 pp	2.69
FC Porto at most 1 goal	62.8%	35.5%	+27.3 pp	1.59
Over 1.5 goals	74.5%	78.3%	−3.8 pp	1.34
Under 1.5 goals	25.5%	21.7%	+3.8 pp	3.93
Over 2.5 goals	45.1%	56.3%	−11.2 pp	2.21
Under 2.5 goals	54.9%	43.7%	+11.2 pp	1.82

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Académico Viseu FC sample: 3 matches
FC Porto sample: 20 matches
Computed: 9 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 9 hours before kick-off

Warnings

Académico Viseu FC has only 3 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.