Angers 1:2 Stade Rennais: xG & match report · Ligue 1

Sunday, 06/09/2026 at 17:15

Full time

Match report · Ligue 1

Angers Home 1.66 xG · 19 shots

Stade Rennais Away 1.54 xG · 18 shots

12 The chances were evenly matched

Stade Rennais were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 38%. They won 2–1. The biggest difference was Angers's attack: 1.66 xG against 1.35 projected (+0.31).

Goals

9' Przemysław Frankowski Stade Rennais · 0.09 xG chance 0–1
17' Jordan Lefort (o.g.) Stade Rennais · 0.10 xG chance 0–2
35' Carlens Arcus Angers · 0.05 xG chance 1–2

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Angers: 32%
Draw: 30%
Stade Rennais: 38% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Angers 1.35 1.66 +0.31

Stade Rennais 1.48 1.54 +0.06

Angers produced 0.31 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Angers Stade Rennais

Shots: 19; 18
On target: 3; 6
Inside the box: 12; 15
xG per shot: 0.09; 0.08
Open play xG: 0.76; 1.36
Set-piece xG: 0.94; 0.09
Penalties: —; —

Angers's shots add up to 1.70 xG and Stade Rennais's to 1.45; the published figures are 1.66 and 1.54.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

37 shots · 3.15 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Angers
Stade Rennais
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Angers

1.29 xG created 1.91 xGA

L 0.70 created, 2.78 conceded against Paris Saint-Germain
L 2.20 created, 2.03 conceded against Auxerre
D 0.59 created, 2.02 conceded against RC Strasbourg
D 0.68 created, 1.57 conceded against Stade Brestois
L 1.99 created, 1.24 conceded against Lille
W 1.55 created, 1.81 conceded against Auxerre

Stade Rennais

1.73 xG created 2.45 xGA

W 1.30 created, 2.17 conceded against Nantes
L 0.84 created, 3.17 conceded against Olympique Lyonnais
W 1.77 created, 1.20 conceded against Paris FC
L 2.49 created, 2.92 conceded against Olympique de Marseille
D 0.87 created, 2.16 conceded against Paris Saint-Germain
W 3.12 created, 3.06 conceded against Le Mans

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Angers: 0 won · 1 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

3 opportunities flagged0 won3 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Angers against Stade Rennais before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Angers to win	4.00	+28.5%	Lost
Draw	3.75	+10.7%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	2.30	+3.2%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Angers	32.1%	23.5%	+8.6 pp	3.11
Draw	29.5%	25.1%	+4.4 pp	3.39
Stade Rennais	38.4%	51.4%	−13.0 pp	2.61

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	62.9%	58.9%	+4.0 pp	1.59
Both teams not to score	37.1%	41.1%	−4.0 pp	2.69
Over 1.5 goals	81.3%	78.9%	+2.4 pp	1.23
Under 1.5 goals	18.7%	21.1%	−2.4 pp	5.36
Over 2.5 goals	55.1%	58.7%	−3.6 pp	1.81
Under 2.5 goals	44.9%	41.3%	+3.6 pp	2.23

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Angers sample: 20 matches
Stade Rennais sample: 20 matches
Computed: 3 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 3 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.