Sunday, 30/08/2026 at 17:15
Full timeStade Rennais 3:2 Le Mans
Stade Rennais were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 59%. They won 3–2. The biggest difference was Le Mans's attack: 3.06 xG against 1.10 projected (+1.96). Stade Rennais produced 3.12 xG against 2.05 projected (+1.07).
Goals
- 5' Esteban Lepaul Stade Rennais · 0.12 xG chance 1–0
- 26' Valentin Rongier Stade Rennais · 0.03 xG chance 2–0
- 30' Louis Mafouta Le Mans · 0.75 xG chance 2–1
- 54' Louis Mafouta (pen.) Le Mans · 0.82 xG chance 2–2
- 90' Esteban Lepaul (pen.) Stade Rennais · 0.82 xG chance 3–2
The model against the result
- Stade Rennais
- 59% What happened
- Draw
- 24%
- Le Mans
- 17%
Data coverage One of these teams has only 1 match in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Projected vs produced
Le Mans produced 1.96 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 22
- 12
- On target
- 8
- 5
- Inside the box
- 17
- 8
- xG per shot
- 0.12
- 0.25
- Open play xG
- 1.40
- 1.99
- Set-piece xG
- 0.50
- 0.18
- Penalties
- 1
- 1
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.89 for Stade Rennais and 2.20 for Le Mans.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
34 shots · 5.71 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Stade Rennais
- Le Mans
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.92 xG created 2.10 xGA
- W 4.25 created, 1.00 conceded against RC Strasbourg
- W 1.30 created, 2.17 conceded against Nantes
- L 0.84 created, 3.17 conceded against Olympique Lyonnais
- W 1.77 created, 1.20 conceded against Paris FC
- L 2.49 created, 2.92 conceded against Olympique de Marseille
- D 0.87 created, 2.16 conceded against Paris Saint-Germain
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Pre-match model & market record
6 opportunities flagged4 won2 lost
- Lost
- Won
- Won
- Lost
- Won
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 5.00 | +21.1% | Lost |
| Le Mans 2+ goals | 4.00 | +13.7% | Won |
| Both teams to score | 1.75 | +11.1% | Won |
| Le Mans to win | 7.00 | +9.9% | Lost |
| Le Mans to score | 1.57 | +9.6% | Won |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.17 | +0.2% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Rennais | 58.9% | 67.3% | −8.4 pp | 1.70 |
| Draw | 24.2% | 19.1% | +5.1 pp | 4.13 |
| Le Mans | 16.9% | 13.6% | +3.3 pp | 5.92 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Rennais to score | 89.1% | 88.1% | +1.0 pp | 1.12 |
| Stade Rennais not to score | 10.9% | 11.9% | −1.0 pp | 9.18 |
| Le Mans to score | 69.8% | 58.9% | +10.9 pp | 1.43 |
| Le Mans not to score | 30.2% | 41.1% | −10.9 pp | 3.31 |
| Both teams to score | 63.5% | 53.3% | +10.2 pp | 1.57 |
| Both teams not to score | 36.5% | 46.7% | −10.2 pp | 2.74 |
| Stade Rennais 2+ goals | 62.9% | 64.5% | −1.6 pp | 1.59 |
| Stade Rennais at most 1 goal | 37.1% | 35.5% | +1.6 pp | 2.70 |
| Le Mans 2+ goals | 30.3% | 23.4% | +6.9 pp | 3.30 |
| Le Mans at most 1 goal | 69.7% | 76.6% | −6.9 pp | 1.43 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.8% | 81.1% | +4.8 pp | 1.17 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 14.2% | 18.9% | −4.8 pp | 7.06 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.9% | 60.2% | +2.8 pp | 1.59 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37.1% | 39.8% | −2.8 pp | 2.70 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
· 1 warningShow Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Stade Rennais sample
- 20 matches
- Le Mans sample
- 1 match
- Computed
- 1 day before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 7 hours before kick-off
Warnings
- Le Mans has only 1 match in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.