Saturday, 22/08/2026 at 20:45
Full timeLe Mans 2:2 Stade Brestois
Le Mans were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 48%. It finished 2–2. The biggest difference was Stade Brestois's attack: 2.72 xG against 1.00 projected (+1.72). Le Mans produced 0.67 xG against 1.50 projected (−0.83).
Goals
- 31' Romain Del Castillo Stade Brestois · 0.14 xG chance 0–1
- 45' Dame Gueye Le Mans · 0.32 xG chance 1–1
- 55' Louis Mafouta Le Mans · 0.13 xG chance 2–1
- 62' Kamory Doumbia Stade Brestois · 0.53 xG chance 2–2
The model against the result
- Le Mans
- 48%
- Draw
- 30% What happened
- Stade Brestois
- 22%
Data coverage The model has never seen one of these sides play. Every figure here rests on an exactly average stand-in for it, which is a guess in a projection's clothes.
Projected vs produced
Stade Brestois produced 1.72 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 8
- 26
- On target
- 5
- 7
- Inside the box
- 5
- 23
- xG per shot
- 0.09
- 0.10
- Open play xG
- 0.66
- 0.97
- Set-piece xG
- 0.04
- 1.63
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.68 for Le Mans and 2.53 for Stade Brestois.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
34 shots · 3.30 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Le Mans
- Stade Brestois
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
No match with expected goals behind it yet.
1.04 xG created 1.62 xGA
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Pre-match model & market record
3 opportunities flagged1 won2 lost
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Le Mans to win | 2.55 | +21.4% | Lost |
| Draw | 3.40 | +2.8% | Won |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.91 | +2.0% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le Mans | 47.6% | 37.1% | +10.5 pp | 2.10 |
| Draw | 30.2% | 27.8% | +2.4 pp | 3.31 |
| Stade Brestois | 22.1% | 35.1% | −12.9 pp | 4.52 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 54.7% | 55.7% | −1.0 pp | 1.83 |
| Both teams not to score | 45.3% | 44.3% | +1.0 pp | 2.21 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.4% | 74.5% | +1.0 pp | 1.33 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 24.6% | 25.5% | −1.0 pp | 4.07 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.6% | 50.0% | −3.4 pp | 2.15 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53.4% | 50.0% | +3.4 pp | 1.87 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
· 1 warningShow Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Le Mans sample
- 0 matches
- Stade Brestois sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 11 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 day before kick-off
Warnings
- There is not a single played match in the database for Le Mans — the estimate for that side is the league average and nothing else.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.