Auxerre – Paris FC prediction, 7 November 2026 · Ligue 1

Saturday, 07/11/2026 at 17:15

34d 11h to kick-off

Match preview · Ligue 1

Auxerre 10th in Ligue 1 Home 1.05 projected goals

Paris FC 3rd in Ligue 1 Away 1.18 projected goals

Model updated 4 October, 06:30 Odds not yet available

What the model expects

expected goals

1.05 1.18

Auxerre Paris FC

Auxerre: 30%
Draw: 34%
Paris FC: 37%

The odds each result is fair at by the model's chance of it, with no margin in it
	Auxerre	Draw	Paris FC
Fair odds	3.35	2.98	2.74

Total goals: 2.24
Over 2.5 goals: 39%
Both teams to score: 51%

Data coverage · full

Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Model vs market

Market odds are not available for this match yet.

The model's case

Why the model leans Paris FC

37% Paris FC to win

Attack: 11th vs 9th; Paris FC attack v Auxerre defence
Defence: 3rd vs 17th; Paris FC defence v Auxerre attack
Recent xG form: +1.28 vs -0.73; xGD per match, last 6
Projected goals: 1.05 – 1.18; Auxerre v Paris FC

How the model arrived here →

Team comparison

Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.

Overview: Auxerre and Paris FC compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Auxerre	Paris FC
xG / match	1.41 · 11th	(better) 1.87 · 5th
xGA / match	2.05 · 16th	(better) 0.65 · 1st
xGD / match	-0.63 · 15th	(better) +1.22 · 1st
xPts / match	1.18 · 13th	(better) 2.17 · 1st
Last 6 xGD / match	-0.73	(better) +1.28

Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition.

Attack: Auxerre and Paris FC compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Auxerre	Paris FC
xG / match	1.41 · 11th	(better) 1.87 · 5th
npxG / match	1.05	(better) 1.50
Shots / match	12.0 · 13th	(better) 13.2 · joint 10th
npxG / shot	0.09 · 16th	(better) 0.11 · 5th

Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition.

Defence: Auxerre and Paris FC compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Auxerre	Paris FC
xGA / match	2.05 · 16th	(better) 0.65 · 1st
Shots faced / match	13.6 · 8th	(better) 9.6 · 1st
npxGA / shot	0.13 · 15th	(better) 0.07 · 1st

The last 6 matches, per match.

Form: Auxerre and Paris FC compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Auxerre	Paris FC
Last 6 xG / match	1.27	(better) 1.92
Last 6 xGA / match	1.99	(better) 0.64
Last 6 xGD / match	-0.73	(better) +1.28

Ratings fitted over each club's last 20 matches, recent ones weighted more and adjusted for the opponent.

Auxerre attack → Paris FC defence

Edge Paris FC

Auxerre attack: 0.83 · 17th
Paris FC defence: 0.86 · 3rd

Paris FC attack → Auxerre defence

Evenly matched

Paris FC attack: 0.95 · 11th
Auxerre defence: 1.00 · 9th

The season aggregate places Auxerre 11th of 18; the fitted rating, which adjusts for who each opponent was, places them lower, at 17th of 18. The aggregate counts every opponent alike.

The season aggregate places Paris FC 5th of 18; the fitted rating, which adjusts for who each opponent was, places them lower, at 11th of 18. The aggregate counts every opponent alike.

The season aggregate places Auxerre 16th of 18; the fitted rating, which adjusts for who each opponent was, places them higher, at 9th of 18. The aggregate counts every opponent alike.

One is the competition's average. An attack above it creates more than an average side does; a defence below it concedes less. Both are fitted over recent matches and adjusted for who the opponent was.

The scorelines behind the model's numbers

No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 38% of the model's distribution.

Paris FC clean sheet: 32%
Paris FC 2+ goals: 34%
Under 2.5 goals: 61%
Both teams to score: no: 49%

Most likely scorelines

1:1: 17.3%
0:0: 10.9%
0:1: 10.3%

Value calculator

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How value is calculated

Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.

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Match result

Auxerre to win

29.8% 3.35 —

Draw

33.6% 2.98 —

Paris FC to win

36.6% 2.74 —

Goals

Over 1.5 goals

69.8% 1.43 —

Under 1.5 goals

30.2% 3.31 —

Over 2.5 goals

39.1% 2.55 —

Under 2.5 goals

60.9% 1.64 —

Both teams to score

51.1% 1.96 —

Both teams not to score

48.9% 2.05 —

Team goals — Auxerre

Auxerre to score

68.1% 1.47 —

Auxerre not to score

31.9% 3.14 —

Auxerre 2+ goals

28.5% 3.51 —

Auxerre at most 1 goal

71.5% 1.40 —

Team goals — Paris FC

Paris FC to score

72.1% 1.39 —

Paris FC not to score

27.9% 3.59 —

Paris FC 2+ goals

33.5% 2.98 —

Paris FC at most 1 goal

66.5% 1.50 —

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Auxerre sample: 20 matches
Paris FC sample: 20 matches
Home xG sample · Auxerre: 3 matches
Away xG sample · Paris FC: 2 matches
Computed: Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 06:30

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Auxerre

1.27 xG created 1.99 xGA

W 0.54 created, 1.72 conceded against Lille
L 1.84 created, 4.41 conceded against RC Lens
L 1.81 created, 1.55 conceded against Angers
L 0.71 created, 2.85 conceded against Olympique Lyonnais
W 1.74 created, 1.08 conceded against Nice
W 0.96 created, 0.34 conceded against Stade Brestois

Paris FC

1.92 xG created 0.64 xGA

W 2.20 created, 0.61 conceded against Paris Saint-Germain
D 1.80 created, 0.42 conceded against Troyes
W 2.89 created, 0.65 conceded against Nice
W 3.29 created, 1.42 conceded against Olympique de Marseille
D 0.30 created, 0.50 conceded against Olympique Lyonnais
W 1.05 created, 0.24 conceded against RC Strasbourg

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

0 won · 2 drawn · 0 lost