Sunday, 11/10/2026 at 17:15
7d 17h to kick-offStade Rennais – Auxerre
Model updated 3 October, 21:30 Best odds updated 10 October, 12:00
What the model expects
- Stade Rennais
- 48%
- Draw
- 29%
- Auxerre
- 24%
| Stade Rennais | Draw | Auxerre | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.10 | 3.50 | 4.22 |
- Total goals
- 2.78
- Over 2.5 goals
- 54%
- Both teams to score
- 60%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
The model sees an edge in 4 outcomes.
-
Stade Rennais
- Model
- 47.7%
- Market, margin removed
- 66.8%
- Probability gap
- −19.1 pp
- Edge
- −34.9%
- Fair odds
- 2.10
- Market odds
- 1.36 Paddy Power
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 2.20
- Bookmaker margin
- 9.8%
-
Draw
- Model
- 28.6%
- Market, margin removed
- 19.2%
- Probability gap
- +9.4 pp
- Edge
- +35.8%
- Fair odds
- 3.50
- Market odds
- 4.75 Paddy Power
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.67
- Bookmaker margin
- 9.8%
-
Auxerre
- Model
- 23.7%
- Market, margin removed
- 14.0%
- Probability gap
- +9.7 pp
- Edge
- +54.0%
- Fair odds
- 4.22
- Market odds
- 6.50 Paddy Power
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 4.43
- Bookmaker margin
- 9.8%
Outcomes with value
Auxerre to win
Measured model skill on this market: +7.20%.
Draw
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Under 2.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
Under 1.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).
Best opportunity
Auxerre to win
Model 23.7% vs. bookmaker 14.0%, margin removed.
Match result
Measured model skill on this market: +7.20%.
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).
Both teams to score
Goals by team
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model leans Stade Rennais
48% Stade Rennais to win
- Attack
- 5th vs 9th
- Stade Rennais attack v Auxerre defence
- Defence
- 16th vs 17th
- Stade Rennais defence v Auxerre attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.50 vs -0.73
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.64 – 1.14
- Stade Rennais v Auxerre
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Stade Rennais | Auxerre |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.76 · 7th | 1.41 · 11th |
| xGA / match | 2.27 · 17th | (better) 2.05 · 16th |
| xGD / match | (better) -0.51 · 13th | -0.63 · 15th |
| xPts / match | 1.08 · 15th | (better) 1.18 · 13th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) -0.50 | -0.73 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 34% of the model's distribution.
- Stade Rennais clean sheet
- 29%
- Stade Rennais 2+ goals
- 50%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 46%
- Both teams to score: no
- 40%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.3%
- 2:1
- 11.1%
- 2:0
- 8.4%
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Stade Rennais sample
- 20 matches
- Auxerre sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Stade Rennais
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Auxerre
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Saturday, 03/10/2026 at 21:30
- Odds updated
- 1 minute ago
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.