Olympique Lyonnais 4:0 Stade Rennais: xG & match report · Ligue 1

Saturday, 19/09/2026 at 20:45

Full time

Match report · Ligue 1

Olympique Lyonnais Home 3.13 xG · 15 shots

Stade Rennais Away 1.37 xG · 13 shots

40 The scoreline reflected the chances

Olympique Lyonnais were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 42%. They won 4–0. The biggest difference was Olympique Lyonnais's attack: 3.13 xG against 1.53 projected (+1.60).

Goals

7' Ernest Nuamah Olympique Lyonnais · 0.21 xG chance 1–0
30' Ernest Nuamah Olympique Lyonnais · 0.44 xG chance 2–0
48' Zachary Athekame Olympique Lyonnais · 0.91 xG chance 3–0
76' Corentin Tolisso Olympique Lyonnais · 0.12 xG chance 4–0

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Olympique Lyonnais: 42% What happened
Draw: 30%
Stade Rennais: 28%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Olympique Lyonnais 1.53 3.13 +1.60

Stade Rennais 1.25 1.37 +0.12

Olympique Lyonnais produced 1.60 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Olympique Lyonnais Stade Rennais

Shots: 15; 13
On target: 9; 3
Inside the box: 10; 9
xG per shot: 0.21; 0.11
Open play xG: 2.96; 1.25
Set-piece xG: 0.19; 0.17
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 3.16 for Olympique Lyonnais and 1.40 for Stade Rennais.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

28 shots · 4.57 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Olympique Lyonnais
Stade Rennais
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Olympique Lyonnais

1.54 xG created 1.19 xGA

L 1.54 created, 1.13 conceded against Toulouse
L 1.91 created, 1.54 conceded against RC Lens
W 0.70 created, 2.77 conceded against Toulouse
D 1.75 created, 0.69 conceded against Le Havre
W 2.85 created, 0.71 conceded against Auxerre
D 0.50 created, 0.30 conceded against Paris FC

Stade Rennais

1.95 xG created 2.06 xGA

W 1.77 created, 1.20 conceded against Paris FC
L 2.49 created, 2.92 conceded against Olympique de Marseille
D 0.87 created, 2.16 conceded against Paris Saint-Germain
W 3.12 created, 3.06 conceded against Le Mans
W 1.54 created, 1.66 conceded against Angers
W 1.88 created, 1.34 conceded against Olympique de Marseille

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Olympique Lyonnais: 1 won · 0 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

5 opportunities flagged1 won4 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Olympique Lyonnais against Stade Rennais before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Under 2.5 goals	2.50	+14.4%	Lost
Draw	3.70	+9.2%	Lost
Olympique Lyonnais at most 1 goal	2.00	+6.3%	Lost
Olympique Lyonnais not to score	5.50	+3.9%	Lost
Stade Rennais at most 1 goal	1.62	+3.0%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Olympique Lyonnais	42.2%	45.0%	−2.8 pp	2.37
Draw	29.5%	25.5%	+4.0 pp	3.39
Stade Rennais	28.3%	29.5%	−1.2 pp	3.53

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Olympique Lyonnais to score	81.1%	82.8%	−1.7 pp	1.23
Olympique Lyonnais not to score	18.9%	17.2%	+1.7 pp	5.29
Stade Rennais to score	74.3%	75.0%	−0.7 pp	1.35
Stade Rennais not to score	25.7%	25.0%	+0.7 pp	3.89
Both teams to score	61.9%	62.5%	−0.6 pp	1.61
Both teams not to score	38.1%	37.5%	+0.6 pp	2.63
Olympique Lyonnais 2+ goals	46.8%	53.7%	−6.8 pp	2.13
Olympique Lyonnais at most 1 goal	53.2%	46.3%	+6.8 pp	1.88
Stade Rennais 2+ goals	36.2%	42.3%	−6.1 pp	2.76
Stade Rennais at most 1 goal	63.8%	57.7%	+6.1 pp	1.57
Over 1.5 goals	80.8%	81.1%	−0.2 pp	1.24
Under 1.5 goals	19.2%	18.9%	+0.2 pp	5.22
Over 2.5 goals	54.3%	62.0%	−7.7 pp	1.84
Under 2.5 goals	45.7%	38.0%	+7.7 pp	2.19

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Olympique Lyonnais sample: 20 matches
Stade Rennais sample: 20 matches
Computed: 12 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 12 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.