Stade Rennais 1:0 Olympique de Marseille: xG & match report · Ligue 1

Friday, 11/09/2026 at 20:45

Full time

Match report · Ligue 1

Stade Rennais Home 1.88 xG · 20 shots

Olympique de Marseille Away 1.34 xG · 13 shots

10 The scoreline reflected the chances

Stade Rennais were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 37%. They won 1–0. The biggest difference was Stade Rennais's attack: 1.88 xG against 1.59 projected (+0.29).

Goals

53' Adrien Thomasson Stade Rennais · 0.64 xG chance 1–0

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Stade Rennais: 37% What happened
Draw: 28%
Olympique de Marseille: 35%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Stade Rennais 1.59 1.88 +0.29

Olympique de Marseille 1.53 1.34 -0.19

Stade Rennais produced 0.29 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Stade Rennais Olympique de Marseille

Shots: 20; 13
On target: 7; 5
Inside the box: 13; 8
xG per shot: 0.09; 0.07
Open play xG: 1.82; 0.92
Set-piece xG: 0.05; 0.03
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.85 for Stade Rennais and 0.97 for Olympique de Marseille.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

33 shots · 2.82 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Stade Rennais
Olympique de Marseille
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Stade Rennais

1.77 xG created 2.36 xGA

L 0.84 created, 3.17 conceded against Olympique Lyonnais
W 1.77 created, 1.20 conceded against Paris FC
L 2.49 created, 2.92 conceded against Olympique de Marseille
D 0.87 created, 2.16 conceded against Paris Saint-Germain
W 3.12 created, 3.06 conceded against Le Mans
W 1.54 created, 1.66 conceded against Angers

Olympique de Marseille

1.70 xG created 2.04 xGA

L 1.36 created, 3.42 conceded against Nantes
W 1.21 created, 1.14 conceded against Le Havre
W 2.92 created, 2.49 conceded against Stade Rennais
W 1.86 created, 0.18 conceded against RC Strasbourg
L 1.40 created, 1.72 conceded against AS Monaco
L 1.42 created, 3.29 conceded against Paris FC

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Stade Rennais: 1 won · 0 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

7 opportunities flagged1 won6 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Won
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Stade Rennais against Olympique de Marseille before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Olympique de Marseille to win	3.40	+18.3%	Lost
Draw	4.00	+11.4%	Lost
Olympique de Marseille 2+ goals	2.38	+10.9%	Lost
Stade Rennais not to score	6.00	+8.0%	Lost
Stade Rennais at most 1 goal	2.10	+7.9%	Won
Olympique de Marseille to score	1.29	+4.2%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.50	+1.9%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Stade Rennais	37.3%	48.5%	−11.2 pp	2.68
Draw	27.9%	23.7%	+4.2 pp	3.59
Olympique de Marseille	34.8%	27.8%	+7.0 pp	2.87

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Stade Rennais to score	82.0%	84.2%	−2.2 pp	1.22
Stade Rennais not to score	18.0%	15.8%	+2.2 pp	5.56
Olympique de Marseille to score	81.0%	73.1%	+7.9 pp	1.23
Olympique de Marseille not to score	19.0%	26.9%	−7.9 pp	5.27
Both teams to score	67.9%	62.5%	+5.4 pp	1.47
Both teams not to score	32.1%	37.5%	−5.4 pp	3.12
Stade Rennais 2+ goals	48.6%	55.7%	−7.1 pp	2.06
Stade Rennais at most 1 goal	51.4%	44.3%	+7.1 pp	1.95
Olympique de Marseille 2+ goals	46.7%	39.2%	+7.5 pp	2.14
Olympique de Marseille at most 1 goal	53.3%	60.8%	−7.5 pp	1.88
Over 1.5 goals	85.6%	82.8%	+2.8 pp	1.17
Under 1.5 goals	14.4%	17.2%	−2.8 pp	6.93
Over 2.5 goals	62.2%	63.6%	−1.4 pp	1.61
Under 2.5 goals	37.8%	36.4%	+1.4 pp	2.65

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Stade Rennais sample: 20 matches
Olympique de Marseille sample: 20 matches
Computed: 9 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 9 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.