RC Lens 5:2 Auxerre: xG & match report · Ligue 1

Saturday, 22/08/2026 at 17:15

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Match report · Ligue 1

RC Lens Home 4.41 xG · 12 shots

Auxerre Away 1.84 xG · 10 shots

52 The scoreline reflected the chances

RC Lens were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 64%. They won 5–2. The biggest difference was RC Lens's attack: 4.41 xG against 1.97 projected (+2.44). Auxerre produced 1.84 xG against 0.83 projected (+1.01).

Goals

12' Florian Thauvin (pen.) RC Lens · 0.82 xG chance 1–0
49' Franjo Ivanović RC Lens · 0.40 xG chance 2–0
54' Saud Abdulhamid RC Lens · 0.80 xG chance 3–0
61' Danny Namaso (pen.) Auxerre · 0.82 xG chance 3–1
66' Ismaelo Ganiou RC Lens · 0.47 xG chance 4–1
69' Lamine Sy Auxerre · 0.77 xG chance 4–2
88' Florian Thauvin (pen.) RC Lens · 0.82 xG chance 5–2

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

RC Lens: 64% What happened
Draw: 24%
Auxerre: 12%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

RC Lens 1.97 4.41 +2.44

Auxerre 0.83 1.84 +1.01

RC Lens produced 2.44 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

RC Lens Auxerre

Shots: 12; 10
On target: 9; 4
Inside the box: 10; 5
xG per shot: 0.38; 0.19
Open play xG: 2.88; 1.01
Set-piece xG: 0.00; 0.03
Penalties: 2; 1

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.87 for RC Lens and 1.00 for Auxerre.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

22 shots · 6.38 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

RC Lens
Auxerre
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

RC Lens

2.21 xG created 1.02 xGA

W 3.76 created, 0.41 conceded against Toulouse
D 2.76 created, 0.25 conceded against Stade Brestois
D 1.53 created, 1.07 conceded against Nice
W 0.82 created, 1.25 conceded against Nantes
L 2.87 created, 1.22 conceded against Paris Saint-Germain
W 1.54 created, 1.91 conceded against Olympique Lyonnais

Auxerre

0.87 xG created 1.89 xGA

D 0.66 created, 1.73 conceded against Nantes
D 0.65 created, 2.24 conceded against AS Monaco
L 0.52 created, 2.12 conceded against Olympique Lyonnais
W 2.03 created, 2.20 conceded against Angers
W 0.84 created, 1.33 conceded against Nice
W 0.54 created, 1.72 conceded against Lille

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

RC Lens: 2 won · 0 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

4 opportunities flagged0 won4 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on RC Lens against Auxerre before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Draw	4.50	+7.0%	Lost
Auxerre at most 1 goal	1.29	+3.5%	Lost
Auxerre not to score	2.50	+2.7%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	2.20	+0.1%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
RC Lens	64.1%	61.0%	+3.1 pp	1.56
Draw	23.8%	21.0%	+2.8 pp	4.21
Auxerre	12.1%	18.0%	−5.9 pp	8.26

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
RC Lens to score	88.2%	85.4%	+2.8 pp	1.13
RC Lens not to score	11.8%	14.6%	−2.8 pp	8.46
Auxerre to score	58.9%	62.5%	−3.6 pp	1.70
Auxerre not to score	41.1%	37.5%	+3.6 pp	2.43
Both teams to score	53.4%	53.3%	+0.0 pp	1.87
Both teams not to score	46.6%	46.7%	−0.0 pp	2.14
RC Lens 2+ goals	60.7%	58.9%	+1.9 pp	1.65
RC Lens at most 1 goal	39.3%	41.1%	−1.9 pp	2.55
Auxerre 2+ goals	19.5%	26.9%	−7.4 pp	5.12
Auxerre at most 1 goal	80.5%	73.1%	+7.4 pp	1.24
Over 1.5 goals	80.6%	78.9%	+1.7 pp	1.24
Under 1.5 goals	19.4%	21.1%	−1.7 pp	5.16
Over 2.5 goals	54.5%	56.9%	−2.4 pp	1.84
Under 2.5 goals	45.5%	43.1%	+2.4 pp	2.20

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
RC Lens sample: 20 matches
Auxerre sample: 20 matches
Computed: 8 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 1 day before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.